Kishida’s Dual Track Nuclear Diplomacy

Abstract

The international security environment is worsening with Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, the worsening strategic confrontation between the United States and China, and North Korea’s strengthening nuclear capability. In this context, the role of nuclear weapons is once again highlighted, while calls for nuclear abolition are growing stronger, dividing the international community. Japan pursues a world without nuclear weapons based on the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, while maintaining extended nuclear deterrence by the United States as an important element of its security policy. These positions may seem contradictory at first glance. However, to fulfill the responsibility to protect its citizens from the nuclear risks they face in the short term and to pursue the ideal of a world without nuclear weapons in the long term, without stopping there, are both indispensable for Japan, and the international community must assume these responsibilities. Japan should lead in this pursuit.

Notes

1 Kishida Fumio “kakuheiki nonai sekai he” [“A World without Nuclear Weapons”], (Japanese) Nikkei BP, 2020. https://kishida.gr.jp/achievement/nuclear　

2 “North Korea tests tactical weapon designed for strengthening nuclear capability,” April 17, 2021, PBS News Hour https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/north-korea-tests-tactical-weapon-designed-for-strengthening-nuclear-capability　

3 “Japan using ruse of atomic bomb victim to realize nuclear goal,” September 8, 2022, China Daily on China Military, http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/10183487.html

4 Russia Suspends New START, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-03/news/russia-suspends-new-start　

5 Shannon Bugos, “Russia Mulls U.S. Arms Control Proposal,” Arms Control Today, March 2023, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-12/news/russia-mulls-us-arms-control-proposal　

6 The text the Budapest Memorandum can be viewed here: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf

7 U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2023, 2023.

8 Toben honbun joho; response to question during session of House of Representatives, Japan (in Japanese), 2021. https://www.shugiin.go.jp/internet/itdb_shitsumon.nsf/html/shitsumon/b204001.htm　

9 Kishida naikaku soridaijin kisha kaiken; Prime Minister Kishida Fumio Press Conference (Japanese), 2021. October 4, 2021, https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/100_kishida/statement/2021/1004kaiken.html　

10 G7 Leaders’ Hiroshima Vision on Nuclear Disarmament https://www.g7hiroshima.go.jp/documents/pdf/230520-01_g7_en.pdf?v20231006

11 MOFA, The Attendance of Prime Minister Kishida at the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), August 2, 2022, https://www.mofa.go.jp/dns/ac_d/page3e_001229.html

12 MOFA, The Adoption of the Draft Resolution on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons submitted by Japan in the Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, December 5, 2023, https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_00021.html

13 Press Conference by Prime Minister KISHIDA Fumio as Chair of the G7 Hiroshima Summit Meeting, May 23, 2023, https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/statement/202305/0521kaiken.html　

14 AKIYAMA Nobumasa, “Reality of the Stability–Instability Paradox: What Is the “Hybrid War under Nuclear Threat” That Has Come to the Fore in the Russia–Ukraine War?,” Discuss Japan, No.72, October 4, 2022 https://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/diplomacy/pt2022100411190812557.html

15 Victim Assistance, Environmental Remediation and International Cooperation https://www.icanw.org/tpnw_intersessional_work_article_6_7_victim_assistance_environmental_remediation_international_cooperation　

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Akiyama Nobumasa

Dr. AKIYAMA Nobumasa is the Dean of the School of International and Public Policy, and Professor of International Relations at the Graduate School of Law at Hitotsubashi University. He is also an Adjunct Research Fellow at Japan Institute of International Affairs. Before being appointed to the current position, he served as Minister-Counsellor at the Permanent Mission of Japan to the International Organizations in Vienna from 2016 to 2018. His other professional appointments included membership on the Public Security Examination Commission of the Ministry of Justice, the International Group of Eminent Persons for a World without Nuclear Weapons, launched by Prime Minister KISHIDA, and Advisor to the Japanese delegation to the NPT Review Conferences since 2000. Recent publications include: “’No first use’ in the context of the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” Asian Security, (2021), “AI Nuclear Winter or AI That Saves Humanity? AI and Nuclear Deterrence,” Joachim von Braun, Margaret S. Archer, Gregory M. Reichberg, Marcelo Sanchez-Sorondo, eds, Robotics, AI, and Humanity (Springer, 2021).