Russia’s Nuclear Propaganda: From the Cold War to Ukraine

ABSTRACT

Through comparative historical analysis, we find that Russia’s strategic communications regarding nuclear weapons use in Ukraine broadly reflect Soviet strategy during the Cold War. The Soviet Union employed a combination of aggressive and defensive propaganda narratives regarding nuclear weapons; the former aimed to coerce the West away from interfering in Soviet military interventions abroad, while the latter sought to convince international audiences that the West was primarily to blame for escalations in tensions. Russia continues to employ this same strategy to provide protective cover for its ongoing war on Ukraine. In both cases, actual Soviet and Russian nuclear posture remained significantly less bellicose than its propaganda narratives imply. Our analysis suggests that Russia’s aggressive rhetoric about nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine has thus far been primarily intended to shape Western decision-making, rather than a genuine expression of intent to use such weapons. In Ukraine, nuclear ‘red lines’ advanced by Russian propaganda have consistently been eroded without response, including significant strikes on Crimea, advanced weapons supplied to Ukraine, and the re-taking of illegally annexed territory. Nevertheless, Russia’s nuclear propaganda has been one of its most successful cognitive warfare efforts in limiting or delaying critical Western military support to Ukraine, on the grounds of avoiding potential escalation. While Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a significant threat to Ukraine and the West, an overly cautious response to Russian rhetoric also risks potentially significant geopolitical consequences by tacitly rewarding nuclear threats.

KEYWORDS:

• Nuclear coercion
• escalation
• propaganda
• cognitive warfare
• deterrence strategy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ ‘EU Says Putin’s Ominous Threat to Those Who Hinder Him Marks “Critical Moment,”’ Reuters, 24 February 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-putins-ominous-threat-those-who-hinder-him-marks-critical-moment-2022-02-24/.

² Todd S. Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann, Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge University Press 2017).

³ Polina Sinovets and Iryna Maksymenko, ‘Nuclear Deterrence in Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Credibility Dilemma,’ Russia’s War on Ukraine: the Implications for the Global Nuclear Order, Ed by A. Vicente, P. Sinovets, and J. Theron (Springer 2023)

⁴ Ben Hodges, X (21 November 2023) https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1726873051902689643

⁵ Ravi Agrawal, ‘The case for ramping up military support for Ukraine,’ (20 March 2023) https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/20/nato-russia-ukraine-poland-putin-military-aid/?tpcc=fp_live

⁶ ‘Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia,’ The Economist (1 November 2023) https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

⁷ We acknowledge that active measures have a much broader (and violent) application than several of these other terms. In this paper, we refer only to its utility in terms of influence activities, information warfare or propaganda. We are not generally referring to active measures in terms of actions such as assassination, sabotage, or fomenting insurrection.

⁸ ‘Cognitive Warfare: Strengthening and Defending the Mind.’ NATO ACT (5 April 2023) https://www.act.nato.int/article/cognitive-warfare-strengthening-and-defending-the-mind/.

⁹ Stephen J. Cimbala, Coercive Military Strategy, (Texas A&M University Press 1998).

¹⁰ Lawrence Freedman, Nuclear Deterrence (Michael Joseph, The Ladybird Expert Series, 2018)

¹¹ Bruno Tertrais, ‘What future for nuclear deterrence?,’ Fondation pour l’innovation politique (October 2022) https://www.fondapol.org/en/study/what-future-for-nuclear-deterrence/.

¹² Keith Payne, Nuclear deterrence in US-Soviet Relations (Boulder, Col.: Westview Press 1982).

¹³ William E. Odom, ‘The Soviet Approach to Nuclear Weapons: A Historical Review’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 469 (September 1983) pp. 117–135.

¹⁴ Raymond L. Garthoff, ‘Mutual Deterrence and Strategic Arms Limitation in Soviet Policy’, International Security 3(1) (Summer 1978) pp. 112–147.

¹⁵ Stephen J. Cimbala and Lawrence J. Korb, ‘Karaganov’s case for Russian nuclear preemption: responsible strategizing or dangerous delusion?’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (August 21, 2023) https://thebulletin.org/2023/08/karaganovs-case-for-russian-nuclear-preemption-responsible-strategizing-or-dangerous-delusion/.

¹⁶ Hanna Notte, ‘The West Cannot Cure Russia’s Nuclear Fever’, War on the Rocks (18 July 2023) https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/the-west-cannot-cure-russias-nuclear-fever/.

¹⁷ Andrey Baklitskiy, ‘What We Learned from Recent Calls for a Russian Nuclear Attack’, Carnegie Politika, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (20 July 2023) https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90232.

¹⁸ Алексей Арбатов, ‘Возгонка вооружений’, Российсский совет по международным делам (РСМД), (6 February 2023) https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/vozgonka-vooruzheniy/#detail.

¹⁹ ‘Возгонка вооружений. Академик Арбатов — о ядерной угрозе и «Минске-3»’,Аргументы и факты, 4 February 2023, https://dzen.ru/a/Y97LvVeUuQp1OOTg.

²⁰ Keir Giles, ‘Russian Nuclear Intimidation: How Russia Uses Nuclear Threats to Shape Western Responses to Aggression’, Royal Institute of International Affairs (29 March 2023) https://doi.org/10.55317/9781784135645.

²¹ John Vinocur, ‘K.G.B. officers try to infiltrate antiwar groups’, The New York Times (26 July 1983) https://www.nytimes.com/1983/07/26/world/kgb-officers-try-to-infiltrate-antiwar-groups.html.

²² Laura Daniels, ‘Russian active measures in Germany and the United States: Analog lessons from the Cold War’, War on the Rocks (27 September 2023) https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/russian-active-measures-in-germany-and-the-united-states-analog-lessons-from-the-cold-war/.

²³ Л.Н. Нежинский, И.А. Челышев, «О доктринальных основах цоветской внешней политики в годы ‘холодной войны’» no. 1143572019, 28 марта 2006 [transl. L.N. Nezhinskiy and I.A. Chelyshev, ‘On Doctrinal Foundations of Soviet Foreign Policy in the Years of the “Cold War”’, 28 March 2006] https://portalus.ru/modules/history/rus_readme.php?subaction=showfull&id=1143572019&archive=&start_from=&ucat=&.

²⁴ V. D. Sokolovskii, Voenaiia Stategiya (Moscow: Voenizdat 1962).

²⁵ Nezhinskiy and Chelyshev, ‘On Doctrinal Foundations of Soviet Foreign Policy in the Years of the “Cold War”’.

²⁶ Odom, ‘The Soviet Approach to Nuclear Weapons’, pp. 117–135.

²⁷ Barton J. Bernstein, ‘Reconsidering Perilous Cuban Missile Crisis 50 Years Later’, Arms Control Association, October 2012, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012-10/reconsidering-perilous-cuban-missile-crisis-50-years-later.

²⁸ A. A. Kokoshyn, Y. I. Baluyevskiy, and V. Y. Potapov, ‘Yadernaya Politika I strategicheskaya stabilnost: proshloye, nastoyashee I budushee’, Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta 25(3) (2015).

²⁹ Thomas B. Cochran, William M. Arkin, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume IV. Soviet Nuclear Weapons (1984) p. 17.

³⁰ Dmitry Treshchanin, Tetiana Iarmoshchuk, and Robert Coalson, ‘The Unresolved Mystery of Soviet Nukes in Czechoslovakia,’ RFE/RL, 2 September 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/the-unsolved-mystery-of-soviet-nukes-in-czechoslovakia-/29466252.html.

³¹ Cochran et al., Soviet Nuclear Weapons. p. 17

³² Harriet Fast Scott and William Fontaine Scott, The Armed Forces of the USSR. 3rd ed (Boulder, Col.: Westview Press 1984) p. 54.

³³ Ibid., p. 58.

³⁴ Ibid., p. 59. Quoted by HF and WF Scott from Grechko, ‘The Leading Role of the CPSU in Building the Army of a Developed Socialist Society’, Voprosy Istorii KPSS 5 (April 1974) pp. 30–34.

³⁵ Henry Kissinger, The Necessity for Choice (1961).

³⁶ Vladimir Putin, ‘Address to the People of Russia on the Donbas Problem and the Situation in Ukraine’, Office of the President of Russia (21 February 2022) https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/vladimirputindonbassandukraine.htm.

³⁷ ‘Swedish PM warns against Russian “nuclear” propaganda,’ Euractiv (11 January 2023) https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/swedish-pm-warns-against-russian-nuclear-propaganda/.

³⁸ Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light, ‘Putin ally warns NATO of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine,’ Reuters (19 January 2023) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-medvedev-warns-nuclear-war-if-russia-defeated-ukraine-2023-01-19/.

³⁹ Justin Ling, ‘Russia Is Ramping Up Nuclear War Propaganda’, Wired (4 November 2022) https://www.wired.co.uk/article/russia-propaganda-ukraine-dirty-bomb.

⁴⁰ Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, ‘Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023’, RUSI (29 March 2023) https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-russias-unconventional-operations-during-russo-ukrainian-war-february-2022.

⁴¹ George Wright, ‘Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: UN experts make first inspection’, BBC (1 September 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62757024.

⁴² Veronika Melkoserova and Nicolas Camut, ‘Russia places explosive mines near occupied nuclear reactor, watchdog says’, Politico (25 July 2023) https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-forces-anti-personnel-mines-near-ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-iaea-warns/.

⁴³ Alex Ross, ‘Ranting Putin threatens Sunak and makes wild claim UK “backed nuclear plant raid”’, Independent (12 September 2023) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/vladimir-putin-rishi-sunak-russia-b2410042.html.

⁴⁴ Giles, ‘Russian Nuclear Intimidation.’

⁴⁵ A.G. Arbatov, ‘Ukrainskiy krizis I strategicheskaya stabilnost’, Polish Political Studies (4) (2022).

⁴⁶ Andrew Stanton, ‘What Russia has said about U.S. supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles,’ Newsweek (5 June 2022) https://www.newsweek.com/what-russia-has-said-about-us-supplyingukraine-long-range-missiles-1712940.

⁴⁷ Vladimir Putin, ‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation’, Presidency of Russia (21 September 2022) http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390.

⁴⁸ Владислав Шабловский, ‘Лавров: Поставки F-16 Украине будут рассматриваться Россией как ядерная угроза,’ Российсская Газета (13 July 2023) https://rg.ru/2023/07/13/lavrov-postavki-f-16-ukraine-budut-rassmatrivatsia-rossiej-kak-iadernaia-ugroza.html.

⁴⁹ Dmitry Trenin, «Мысли о немыслимом: зачем Россия отправляет ядерное оружие в Белоруссию» Российсский совет по международным делам (РСМД) (2023) https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/mysli-o-nemyslimom-zachem-rossiya-otpravlyaet-yadernoe-oruzhie-v-belorussiyu/.

⁵⁰ ‘Putin Called Arms Supplies to Ukraine Crossing Red Lines,’ Kommersant (26 March 2023) https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5899907.

⁵¹ Faulconbridge and Light, ‘Putin ally warns NATO’

⁵² Using this term to invoke the Kremlin’s perennial neo-Nazi narratives attempting to connect modern Ukraine and its current government with WWII-era right-wing nationalist Ukrainian leader and anti-Soviet partisan Stepan Bandera.

⁵³ ‘Ukraine: War “coming to Russia”, Medvedev nuclear threat, Ukrainian drones strike Moscow and Crimea.’ Euronews (31 July 2023) https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/31/ukraine-war-coming-to-russia-medvedev-nuclear-threat-ukrainian-drones-strike-moscow-and-cr.

⁵⁴ Giles, ‘Russian Nuclear Intimidation’.

⁵⁵ Elon Musk, X (7 September 2023) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1699917639043404146.

⁵⁶ Dearbail Jordan, ‘Elon Musk says he withheld Starlink over Crimea to avoid escalation’, BBC (8 September 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66752264.

⁵⁷ Elon Musk, X (3 October 2022) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000.

⁵⁸ Allison Quinn, ‘Elon Musk on Starlink Scandal: Ukraine “Not in Charge” of U.S.’, Daily Beast (13 September 2023) https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-on-starlink-scandal-ukraine-is-not-in-charge-of-us.

⁵⁹ Ibid.

⁶⁰ Paul Adams, Megan Fisher, ‘Ukraine launches missile attack on Crimea’, BBC (13 September 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66793900.

⁶¹ Ece Goksedef and Vitalii Chervonenko ‘Russian air defence system destroyed in Crimea, Ukraine says’, BBC (14 September 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897.

⁶² Joel Guinto, ‘Ukraine claims Crimea landing “special operation” for Independence Day’, BBC (24 August 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66603644.

⁶³ Megan Fisher and Vitaly Shevchenko, ‘Ukraine hits HQ of Russia’s symbolic Black Sea navy’, BBC (23 September 2023) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524.

⁶⁴ Polina Sinovets and Valeriia Hesse, ‘Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy: The Evolution of the Escalation Strategy’, in Arms Control and Europe, ed. Polina Sinovets and William Alberque, Contributions to International Relations (Cham: Springer International Publishing 2022),

⁶⁵ Edward Helmore, ‘Jake Sullivan: US Will Act “Decisively” If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine’, The Guardian (25 September 2022) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan.

⁶⁶ ‘Russian Foreign Ministry Denies Alleged Nuclear War Threat,’ teleSur (29 April 2022) https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russian-Foreign-Ministry-Denies-Alleged-Nuclear-War-Threat-20220429-0001.html.

⁶⁷ Putin, ‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation’

⁶⁸ Christopher Clary and Joshua Shifrinson, ‘Prigozhin’s failed coup was a blessing in disguise,’ Foreign Policy (10 July 2023) https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/10/russia-putin-prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-nuclear-weapons/.

⁶⁹ Steven Pifer, ‘Karaganov’s nuclear rant ought to scare Lukashenko,’ Brookings (28 June 2023) https://www.brookings.edu/articles/karaganovs-nuclear-rant-ought-to-scare-lukashenko/.

⁷⁰ Dmitry Medvedev, Telegram (24 June 2023) https://t.me/rian_ru/206894

⁷¹ ‘We need to take a page from North Korea’s Book,’ Meduza (24 May 2023) https://amp.meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/24/we-need-to-take-a-page-from-north-korea-s-book.

⁷² Vazha Tavberidze, ‘Interview: The “War Of Clans For Putin’s Throne Has Begun,”’ RFE/RL (24 May 2023) https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html.

⁷³ Atle Staalesen, ‘“Ten Western terrorist plots against Karelia over last half year,” says Russian security chief Patrushev,’ The Barents Observer (1 August 2023) https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/08/ten-western-terrorist-plots-against-karelia-over-last-half-year-says-russian.

⁷⁴ ‘Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,’ Executive Order of the President and of the Russian Federation (Moscow: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 2 June 2020), https://archive.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/-/asset_publisher/rp0fiUBmANaH/content/id/4152094.

⁷⁵ Арбатов, «Возгонка вооружений».

⁷⁶ Mary O’Connor, ‘Ukraine conflict: Putin’s Nuclear Alert a Distraction Attempt, UK Says,’ BBC (28 February 2022) https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60553356.

⁷⁷ ‘Россия опровергла в ООН сообщения о повышенной готовности ядерных сил,’ Известия (6 August 2022) https://iz.ru/1375714/2022-08-06/rossiia-oprovergla-v-oon-soobshcheniia-o-povyshennoi-gotovnosti-iadernykh-sil.

⁷⁸ ‘Глава «Роскосмоса»: «Сармат» поставлен на боевое дежурство,’ Радио Свобода (1 September 2023) https://www.svoboda.org/a/glava-roskosmosa-sarmat-postavlen-na-boevoe-dezhurstvo/32574406.html.

⁷⁹ Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Harvard University Press 1960).

⁸⁰ Mark Bell, Plus ça change plus c’est la même chose: The Old Lessons about Nuclear Weapons being Re-observed in Ukraine. RJISSF Policy Forum on Ukraine and Nuclear Weapons (forthcoming, currently unpublished).

⁸¹ Putin, ‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation.’

⁸² ‘The State Duma adopted the bill de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty’, Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (18 October 2023) http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/58109/.

⁸³ X, ‘The Sources of Soviet Conduct’, Foreign Affairs (1947) pp. 566–582.

⁸⁴ Peter Dickinson, ‘Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was never about NATO’, Ukrainealert, Atlantic Council (18 July 2023) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-was-never-about-nato/

⁸⁵ Robert Person and Michael McFaul, ‘What Putin Fears Most,’ Journal of Democracy 33(2) (April 2022) https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/