A non-nuclear US ally’s nuclear preparedness dilemma: South Korea’s “Three-Axis System”

ABSTRACT

This article aims to encourage discussion on the dilemma of a non-nuclear US ally’s nuclear preparedness through the case of South Korea. Despite the strong demands of its own nuclear armament by the people and North Korea’s continuous and aggressive nuclear buildups, South Korea has been focusing on strengthening only its conventional options, such as the Kill Chain (preemptive strikes), KAMD (missile defence), and KMPR (conventional retaliation), in the name of the “Three-Axis System” (TAS). However, these have inherent limitations and are seriously challenged by North Korea’s developments of solid-fuel, pull-up manoeuvring, and low-trajectory missiles. As a result, South Korea turned out to be in a dilemma between harmony with its ally, the United States, and a securer nuclear defence against the North Korean nuclear threat. South Korea should do its best to increase the effectiveness of its TAS options in close consultation with the US nuclear extended deterrence. However, it needs to expand its discussion on other options, such as its own nuclear armament, without seriously damaging its alliance with the US. The United States, in turn, should participate in the discussion instead of rejecting South Korea’s options other than the TAS.

KEYWORDS:

• North Korea nuclear
• South Korea nuclear defense
• Three-Axis System
• kill chain
• KAMD
• KMPR

Disclosure statement

In accordance with my ethical obligation as a researcher, I am reporting that I do not receive any funding from a company that may be affected by the research reported in the enclosed paper. I have disclosed those interests fully, and I have in place an approved plan for managing any potential conflicts arising from that involvement.

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Hwee-Rhak Park

Dr. Hwee-rhak Park is a special affairs professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, South Korea and a visiting professor in the University of the Philippines, Manila, the Philippines. He was reappointed as a professor in March 2023 after retiring from the same university in 2021 due to South Korea’s age limit for professors at 65. Following his retirement, he served as a visiting scholar at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, from September 2021 to July 2022. Dr. Park has a background in political science and has focused his recent research on North Korean nuclear issues. He served as a professor and dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University from 2009 to 2018. During his time as a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School, he published three articles in international journals in 2022, namely “North Korea’s Nuclear Armament Strategy and Deception” in Defense Studies, “Investigating Nuclear-Armed North Korea’s ‘Strategic’ Challenge and Options for the United States and South Korea” in International Area Studies Review, and “An Investigation into North Korea’s ‘Real’ Nuclear Strategy: A Comparison with Pakistan’s Case” in the Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs (this journal). In 2023, Mr. Park published three English articles: “Searching for On-site Nuclear Balance against North Korea” in Comparative Strategy, “The Necessity to Discuss ‘Deterrence Failure’ Regarding North Korea’s Nuclear Threat” in International Studies, and “Compellence and BATNA for the Denuclearization of North Korea” in International Negotiations. These publications demonstrate his continued engagement with and research on North Korean nuclear issues. Dr. Park served in the South Korean army from 1978 to 2009, when he retired as a Colonel after completing careers such as infantry battalion and regiment commanders, policy and planning jobs in the Ministry of National Defense and US-South Korea Combined Forces Command, and a professor at the National Defense University. He received a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from the Korea Military Academy in 1978. He earned Master’s degrees in International Relations from Yonsei University in 1983 and in Security Strategy from the US National War College, U.S. National Defense University, in 1999. He earned a Ph.D. in Political Science from Gyeong-gi University in Seoul, South Korea in 2008.