Article title: A study on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 considering the impact of asymptomatic infection.
Authors: Chuanqing Xu, Zonghao Zhang, Xiaotong Huang, Kedeng Cheng, Songbai Guo, Xiaojing Wang, Maoxing Liu and Xiaoling Liu
Journal: Journal of Biological Dynamics
Bibliometrics: Volume 17, Number 01, pages 1–22
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2023.2244980
When the article was first published online, all the figures were placed incorrectly. These are now corrected and republished. The correct figures are placed here:
Figure 1. Flow chart of the COVID-19 transmission dynamic model containing seven compartments. The compartments represented by the red box are infectious, and the compartments represented by the blue box are not infectious.
Figure 2. Relative position map of the four data fitting time periods during the corresponding outbreak. a, b and c, The relative position map of the selected first, second and third data fitting time periods during the first three outbreaks of the corresponding epidemic in England. d, The relative position map of the selected fourth data fitting time period during the corresponding outbreak in Shanghai in April 2022.
Figure 3. Simulation results of the daily number of newly confirmed cases of epidemic data in four time periods. a, Simulation results in the first time period, corresponding to the 614G variant. b, Simulation results in the second time period, corresponding to the Alpha variant. c, Simulation results in the third time period, corresponding to the Delta variant. d, Simulation results in the fourth time period, corresponding to the Omicron variant.
Figure 4. The sensitivity of the control reproduction number with respect to the corresponding parameters.
Figure 5. Horizontal comparison results of epidemic data simulation in four time periods. a, b, d and e, Changes in the proportion of the three types of infected persons. c, Model prediction results of the peak time of the epidemic in four time periods. f, Model predictions of maximum daily confirmed cases over four time periods.
Figure 6. The impact of the tested ratio ρ among symptomatic infected persons on the spread of the epidemic. a, The influence of parameter ρ changes on the cumulative amount of infected people, based on the fitting results of the first time period. b, The impact of parameter ρ changes on the proportion of different types of infected people, based on the fitting results of the first time period. c, The influence of parameter ρ changes on the cumulative amount of infected people, based on the fitting results of the second time period. d, The impact of parameter ρ changes on the proportion of different types of infected people, based on the fitting results of the second time period.
Figure 7. The impact of the tested ratio ρ among symptomatic infected persons on the spread of the epidemic. a, The influence of parameter ρ changes on the cumulative amount of infected people, based on the fitting results of the third time period. b, The impact of parameter ρ changes on the proportion of different types of infected people, based on the fitting results of the third time period. c, The influence of parameter ρ changes on the cumulative amount of infected people, based on the fitting results of the fourth time period. d, The impact of parameter ρ changes on the proportion of different types of infected people, based on the fitting results of the fourth time period.
Figure 8. The impact of the tested ratio ρ among symptomatic infected persons on the spread of the epidemic. a, The reduction rate in the total number of infected people when the detection rate goes from 20% to 80%. b, The reduction rate in asymptomatic infections when testing rates go from 20% to 80%.
Figure 9. The latest UK epidemic fitting and forecast results. Based on the predicted results, the outbreak will last from September 2022 to January 2023. The number of confirmed cases will peak in early November 2022.
