Evaluation of the urban Land use plan’s effectiveness in achieving resource efficiency: the case of Bahir Dar city- Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Urban land use plans (ULUPs) contribute to the efficient use of resources for sustainable urban development. However, the metered contribution of Bahir Dar’s ULUPs to the efficient use of resources has not yet been known. Bahir Dar is the capital of the Amhara Region and a scenic city on the southern shore of Lake Tana, Ethiopia’s largest lake and the source of the Blue Nile. It attracts many visitors from inside and outside the country. This study evaluates the effectiveness of ULUPs in Bahir Dar to achieve efficient use of resources such as water, energy, and food. Thus, the study developed criteria to assess the effectiveness of ULUPs based on the global indicator framework for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The results show that its ULUPs were not resource efficient in terms of food production, water quality and yield, and transport energy usage.

KEYWORDS:

• Food production
• transport energy usage
• quality metrics
• water quality and yield
• Sustainable urban development

1. Introduction

Urban land use plans (ULUPs) have a significant impact on both the natural and built environment. According to Shahab et al. (2019), most of these effects are permanent and can continue for many years (Shahab et al. 2019). Planners should thus be aware in advance of their plans’ effects on vital resources for sustainable urban development. Therefore, before the plans are approved and ready for implementation, it is important to rigorously evaluate the long-lasting effects of ULUPs on essential resources. Local governments, global governance actors, and the corporate sector are becoming more concerned about the need to secure and protect crucial resources for sustainable urban growth through the management of their interconnections (Muller 2015). Consequently, it is increasingly appreciated that ULUPs must be of sufficient quality to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as cities are critical to overall sustainable development (Parnell 2016; United Nations 2016).Prior to implementation, in Bahir Dar, ULUPs have been reviewed using both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ approaches simultaneously (BDCSPPPO 2020a). Stakeholders review ULUPs using pre-set quality standards in a top-down approach and approve them for implementation only if they meet the quality criteria. Planning authorities at the state and/or federal levels create these standards, which include locational and space standards, to achieve long-term goals (MUDHC 2018).

Locational standards are guidelines for allocating infrastructure or uses to land. They are presented in the form of the land uses that are best positioned to meet the users’ fundamental demands for interaction. Safety from hazards, proximity or distance between one land use and another, compatibility and the social implications of the uses for the nearby community, land prices and site development costs, etc. are all taken into consideration when developing locational standards. Space standards are collections of planning guidelines that outline the amount or extent of land needed to support particular facilities, infrastructure, or uses. To increase space efficiency, all space should be distributed according to prescribed frameworks. They are often stated as minimum or maximum standards and might take the form of estimated people, areas, or other attributes per unit area. The minimum requirements are the very least that developers must adhere to, while the maximum standards are the maximum. By minimising overcrowding and underutilisation and ensuring the effective operation of varied users, facilities, and services, space standards assist in achieving proper use of land (Digafe et al. 2022).

Through participatory planning, the bottom-up approach to quality evaluation seeks to satisfy inhabitants and stakeholders. In order to improve the quality, validity, and overall effectiveness of the plans on the social, economic, and environmental fronts, participatory urban planning is thus implemented, and each stakeholder with a need for, voice in, or preference for public involvement must be recognised and their viewpoint taken into account (MUDHC 2007).

It is unclear how well ULUPs use resources like water, energy, and food for sustainable urban development, even though all the quality metrics in both approaches agree on them. This study aims to assess the contribution made by the ULUPs of Bahir Dar City to the effective utilisation of these fundamental resources. The idea of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus is employed as an analytical and proactive evaluation tool to attain this goal (Romero-Lankao et al. 2017; van Gevelt 2020; Huntington et al. 2021; Carvalho et al. 2022; Simpson et al. 2023).

2. Theoretical and empirical reviews

Urban expansion and water, energy, and food security are closely linked, and activities in one area frequently affect others (FAO 2019). For a variety of reasons, demand for all of these resources is rising with urban expansion, yet supply is extremely constrained (FAO 2014). Given their constant connectivity, integrated water, energy, and food management are essential for maintaining both human existence and the sustainability of natural resources (Purwanto et al. 2021). The sectors therefore need well-coordinated planning to achieve sustainable urban development.

2.1. Interconnections between urban expansion and water, energy, and food resources

The dynamic relationship between urban expansion and the use of natural resources has been noted in earlier research. These relationships show how natural resources enable urban growth on the one hand and the positive and negative effects of urban growth on these fundamental natural resources – such as water, energy, and food – that are essential to sustainable urban development on the other (de Carvalho CM et al. 2021). Therefore, it is widely recognised that urban expansion needs to be made carefully to exploit potential synergies while minimising the negative impact of the ULUPs on these critical resources.

2.1.1. Positive impacts of urban expansion on water, energy, and food resources

Urbanisation, which has been acknowledged as a constructive driver for economic growth, poverty reduction, and human development, can be characterised as urban expansion (Turok and Mcgranahan 2020). Cities produce approximately 80% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) (World-Bank 2023). The high level of provision of education, services, and leisure activities, combined with a high population density and the very high frequency of interactions notably found in cities, favour technological and social innovation, entrepreneurship, and creativity. High levels of education, services, and leisure opportunities, together with cities’ dense populations and frequent social contacts, encourage technical and social innovation, entrepreneurship, and creativity. Cities have thus always been linked to revolutionary concepts and novel social initiatives. This means that they are actively involved in generating new ideas, new forms of organisation, and new enterprises, rather than being mere containers of innovative activity (Florida et al. 2017). In short, urban expansion and technological advancement are essentially two sides of the same coin. Urban centres can therefore be claimed to stimulate technological and social innovations that significantly improve water, energy, food production, and security (Zhang et al. 2023).

For instance, urban-based technologies are used in the water supply system. Technology advancements to increase water supply and efficiency include rainwater collection, water storage and treatment, disinfection, water pumps (manual, cable, solar, electric, fuel, etc.), and water distribution network technologies. As a result, urban land use planning should consider the reliable and sufficient supply of water so that it can contribute to the security of both food and energy (Miralles‐Wilhelm et al. 2018). One of the main energy choices coming from urban-based technology is electricity. Electricity will account for 20.4% of total world final consumption by 2021 (Enerdata 2022), compared to all other sources. The impact of transitioning from inefficient traditional fuels to efficient contemporary energy sources is similar to how urban-based technologies help reduce energy usage (Li and Lin 2015). As a result, urban land use planning should consider the efficiency of energy so that it can significantly enhance the security of both food and water (Zakeri et al. 2022). In addition, food producers depend on urban enterprises and technology for a variety of products and services, including access to markets (de Bruin et al. 2021). High-quality seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, irrigation systems, tractors, ploughs, and other technological advancements have made it possible to increase agricultural productivity and yields. Expanding agricultural-producing regions can also be facilitated by innovative urban growth (Wang et al. 2021). As a result, urban land use planning should consider the optimal development of agricultural land, as it can have a significant impact on water and energy security (Abdourahamane Illiassou and Oeba 2020; FAO 2023).

2.1.2. Negative impacts of urban expansion on food resources

Urban areas, in particular, are overusing natural resources due to the expanding urban population, which will make up 68% of the global population by 2050 (United Nations 2019). Rapid urban expansion, especially in low-income countries, causes high food prices and urban food insecurity for urban dwellers who mainly buy food (Gebresllassie 2014). According to Egal, Bonye et al. (2020), agricultural land helps keep the supply of food in cities stable, but the expansion of the built environment causes agricultural land to be lost (Bonye et al. 2020). This is due to the fact that land for urban expansion is frequently acquired from nearby, productive agricultural land. Modern urban expansion has heavily depleted the most fertile agricultural land in developing countries (Bonye et al. 2020). Numerous additional case studies, including those from China, the Netherlands, Germany, the United States, Egypt, Turkey, India, and other nations (Bagan and Yamagata 2014; Ahmad et al. 2016; Bonye et al. 2021), have confirmed that rapid urban expansion over the past few decades has led to the loss of agricultural land throughout the world.

40% of Ethiopia’s GDP, 70% of its exports, and 80% of its labour force are derived from agriculture (Yalew et al. 2018; Dercon and Gollin 2019). Despite being one of the few nations in Africa with more arable land than other nations, 10% to 14% of all fertile and highly productive arable land is situated close to urban areas (Adam 2014a). The rate of urbanisation is 5.4% each year, according to the 2015 Ethiopia Urbanisation Review. By 2028, 30% of the population will reside in urban regions, and by 2034, there will be three times as many urban residents (World Bank Group 2015). To address the food supply and security issues caused by Ethiopia’s rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, the effectiveness of ULUPs is essential.

2.1.3. Negative impacts of urban expansion on water resources

Although access to clean water is better in urban areas than in rural ones, urban areas have faced declining water supply quantity and quality as a result of population growth and geographic expansion (Haddeland et al. 2014; Sadoff et al. 2015). Various case studies revealed that urban expansion, or the expansion of human settlements and activities, can have a negative impact on water resources, such as decreased infiltration and groundwater recharge, increased storm runoff and flooding, decreased water quality, altered stream morphology and hydrology, and increased water demand and stress.

These repercussions, according to these studies, have major implications for human health, well-being, and economic growth, as well as for biodiversity conservation and ecological services. As a result, it is critical to implement sustainable urban land use planning and management practices that reduce the negative impacts of urban expansion on water resources while increasing their resilience. Table 1 summarises the major negative effects of urban expansion and provides concise descriptions of how the expansion causes these effects, along with the necessary sources. In order to reduce pollution, ULUPs should be directed to take place as far away from surface water as practicable. In order to reduce pollution, urban expansion should be directed to take place as far away from surface water as is practicable.

Table 1. Major negative impacts of urban expansion on water resources.

Major Negative Effects	Description	Sources
Reduced infiltration and groundwater recharge	More pavement and buildings mean less water can soak into the ground, lowering the water table and affecting the availability and quality of groundwater	(Ávila-Carrasco et al. 2023) (Noori and Singh 2023)
Increased storm runoff and flooding	Less vegetation and more impervious surfaces mean more water flows into streams and rivers, causing erosion, sedimentation, and flooding	(Feng et al. 2021) (Bulti and Abebe 2020)
Decreased water quality	Urban runoff can carry pollutants such as nutrients, metals, bacteria, and chemicals into water bodies, affecting their ecological health and human use	(Agrawal et al. 2021) (Canteiro et al. 2023)
Altered stream morphology and hydrology	Urban development can change the natural course, shape, and flow of streams and rivers, affecting their habitat and biodiversity	(Busho et al. 2021)
Increased water demand and stress	Urban population growth and economic activities can increase the water consumption and withdrawal from surface and groundwater sources, causing water scarcity and conflicts	(Heidari et al. 2021)

2.1.4. Negative impacts of urban expansion on energy resources

Urban expansion has been proven to have a considerable influence on energy usage in several studies (Haldar and Sharma 2021; Mehmood 2021; Liu 2022). While urban areas use 78% of the world’s energy, urban expansion has boosted energy use in numerous ways (United Nations 2020a). Compact city strategies reduced energy usage, but urban expansion and motorisation accounted for a significant portion of the rise in energy use (Zhao and Zhang 2018). Urban built environments, especially urban transportation, have a long history of influencing energy consumption patterns. Climate change is largely exacerbated by urban energy usage. According to the most current assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), urban areas account for between 67% and 76% of worldwide energy consumption and around 75% of carbon emissions. As the world’s urban population rises by two to three billion people this century, this portion of global greenhouse gas emissions is anticipated to rise (United Nations 2018).

Moreover, various case studies have also revealed additional adverse impact of urban expansion on energy resources (Chen et al. 2022). It can Increase the demand and consumption of energy for various urban functions, such as transportation, heating, cooling, lighting, and industry (Kuddus et al. 2020). Urban expansion can reduce the efficiency and reliability of energy supply and distribution systems, due to congestion, ageing infrastructure, and vulnerability to natural and human-made disasters (Li et al. 2022). It can also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, which can affect the availability and quality of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydro (Raihan and Tuspekova 2022). It can degrade the environmental and social conditions of energy-producing regions, such as rural areas, forests, and mines, which can affect the sustainability and equity of energy resources (Batala et al. 2023). Therefore, urban land use planning should take into account the good use of energy resources, understanding that it has a significant impact on water and food security, and then on sustainable development.

3. Methodology

The city of Bahir Dar was chosen as the case study location to determine how well ULUPs perform in achieving efficient use of basic resources, including water, energy, and food, in Ethiopia. One of Ethiopia’s nine regional capitals, Bahir Dar, will have a population of approximately 500,000 people in 2020 (BDCSPPPO 2020b), and it is situated at 11° 38’N latitude and 37° 15’ E longitude. The city has been growing rapidly for the past two decades as one of Ethiopia’s major urban centres (Haregeweyn et al. 2012a; BDCSPPPO 2017). The municipal administration’s Urban Planning Division was the source of both quantitative and qualitative data collections. To understand how the chosen fundamental natural resources were taken into account throughout the planning process, primary data were gathered through field reconnaissance and focus group discussions. Officials from the urban planning department and technical experts participated in the study as a result. To examine the effects of the past land use plans on fundamental resources including water, energy, and food, secondary data were gathered. As a result, the planning reports for the Bahir Dar City plans from 1996 and 2006 were analysed. The two plans were selected because they are relatively comprehensive and have recent data relevant to the study, that is available in the city. Information about the extent of the built environment during the 1996 and 2006 land use plan preparations was taken from the then-satellite images of Bahir Dar city.

The study attempted to develop detailed criteria to measure the contribution of the ULUPs based on the global indicator framework for SDGs, with a focus on the resources, i.e. water, energy, and food efficiency, which are directly related to the SDGs 6 (clean water and sanitation), the SGD 7 (affordable and clean energy), and SDG 2 (zero hunger), respectively. The Inter-Agency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) created it, and the United Nations Statistical Commission’s 48th session, which took place in March 2017, approved it. The following describes the defined criteria for assessing how well the ULUPs contribute to the sustainable use of these resources, the specific information needed for the indicators, and how the data is gathered.

3.1. Metrics for the ULUPs’ efficiency in water resources

To determine if the 6th Goal, which is directly related to water resources, is being sufficiently accomplished, the SDGs Global Indicator Framework creates 8 targets and 11 indicators (IAEG-SDGs 2020). Only two of these indicators – indicator 6.5.1 for ‘Degree of integrated water resources management’ and indicator 6.6.1 for ‘Change in the extent of water-related ecosystems over time’ – are taken into consideration in this study. because it is thought that these are the only variables suitable for evaluating the water resource land use plan. Therefore, ‘permeable land cover’ and ‘groundwater level’ are further developed as detail indicators to make them suitable for measuring the contribution of the ULUPs in maintaining the sustainability of groundwater recharge capacity and reducing the occurrence of foods in and around the urban area (IAEG-SDGs 2016), based on the recommendation to disaggregate the indicators provided by the SDGs Global Indicator Framework (IAEG-SDGs 2020). As a result, maps of the groundwater level and soil permeability of the research region were obtained from the BDC-SPP-PO. Additionally, the study created two model criteria by combining these data (i.e. groundwater level, soil permeability, and ULUP limits):

• Percentage of permeable land (soil type) covered by the city’s ULUPs

• Percentage of shallow groundwater-level areas covered by the city’s ULUPs

The two effects of ULUPs on the amount and quality of groundwater were assessed using the aforementioned two indicators. As a result, a larger percentage of coverage indicates a higher likelihood of flooding and a lower capacity for natural groundwater recharge (the former criteria), but a higher percentage of coverage indicates a higher likelihood of groundwater contamination (the latter criteria).

3.2. Metrics for the ULUPs’ efficiency in energy resources

To determine if the 7th Goal, which is directly related to energy resources, is being sufficiently reached, the SDGs Global Indicator Framework creates five targets and six indicators (IAEG-SDGs 2020). The third of these targets – Target 7.3— ‘By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency’ – is taken into consideration in this analysis. Considering that it is thought to be the sole objective appropriate for measuring the efficiency of ULUPs in relation to energy resources and in order to measure the impact of ULUPs on increasing energy efficiency in urban transport, ‘Density’ is further created as a detail indicator based on the recommendation to disaggregate the indicators provided by the SDGs Global Indicator Framework (IAEG-SDGs 2020). As a result, ULUPs for a city with a higher density also predict a lower energy need for urban transportation (Nolon 2012; Duranton and Puga 2020).

The study uses three alternative methods to determine density. The population density indicator determines the estimated population (in hectares) in the entire extended urban development region. The street density indicator (360 2020) determines the length of projected streets in relation to the overall expanded urban development area (in hectares). The block density indicator figures out how many planned blocks there are for every hectare of the overall expanded urban development area. Since there would be more straight-through pathways and more street connections due to the finer-grained network created by the increased number of streets, the resulting block sizes would be more suited for non-motorised modes. The study computed the population density using the projected population size and the projected city boundary; the street density using the projected street length and the projected city boundary; and the block density using the projected block size and the projected city border. All this data is gathered from prior planning documents.

3.3. Metrics for the ULUPs’ efficiency in food resources

To determine if the 2nd Goal, which is directly related to food resources, is being satisfactorily accomplished, the SDGs Global Indicator Framework offers 5 targets and 14 indicators (IAEG-SDGs 2020). Only one of these indicators – indicator 2.4.1, which may be defined as the ‘proportion of agricultural land under productive and sustainable agriculture’ – is taken into account in this study. Because it is thought to be the sole indicator suitable for measuring the ULUPs with reference to a food resource.

Therefore, ‘Agricultural land cover’ and ‘Fertile land cover’ are further created as detail indicators to make them suitable for measuring the contribution of the ULUPs to improving local food production, based on the recommendation to disaggregate the indicators given by the SDGs Global Indicator Framework (IAEG-SDGs 2020). The cultivated land here is an area where food is already being produced. And fertile land is a soil type that has better characteristics for food production than other types, based on the food culture of the area. defined. A regional soil fertility map prepared by the Bahir Dar City Structural Planning Preparation Project Office (BDC-SPP-PO) was used for this study. By integrating this information (urban planning boundaries, agricultural land cover, soil fertility, etc.), the study created two model criteria.

• percentage of agricultural land covered by the city’s ULUPs

• percentage of fertile land covered by the city’s ULUPs

The criteria were used to evaluate the contribution of the two ULUPs vis-à-vis agricultural food production. As a result, a land use plan with a greater proportion contributes less to food security because it makes it more difficult to produce enough food.

4. Result and discussion

The history of the ULUPs in Bahir Dar City is briefly reviewed in this part, along with information on how resource-efficient they were in terms of food production, water quality and yield, and energy use for transportation. The ULUPs were also compared to the existing land uses at the time to understand their impacts on the environment. Finally, it examines how the city’s two ULUPs help reduce the risk of flooding, recharge groundwater, utilise the least amount of energy possible for urban transportation, and produce food sustainably.

4.1. Brief history of land use plans in Bahir Dar city

Around the 14th century, a little settlement named Bahr Dar was established, eventually developing into one of Ethiopia’s largest cities. It functioned as the primary military base during the Italian occupation in 1928–1933. The city government routinely created a variety of land use plans in order to utilise the land efficiently and foster the growth of the city. From 1965 until now, different urban plans have been prepared for Bahir Dar city, and Table 2 is presented briefly.

Table 2. Urban Land Use Plans of Bahir Dar city (1965-2030).

Planning Period	1965–2005	1996–2006 (See Figure 1)	2006 –2016 (See Figure 2)	2020 –2030
Type of the ULUP	Master Plan	Master Plan	Integrated Development Plan (IDP)	Structural Plan (SP)
Total Coverage	240.8 ha	3,862.4 ha	6238.8 ha	92,332 ha
No. of Major Land Uses	8	10	10	8
Population no. at The Beginning of The Planning	11,990	~96,140	~180,174	549,000
Population no. at The End of Planning Period	300,000	300,000	170,000	989,040
Prepared By	German Engineers Professor Matnter and His Associates	National Urban Planning Institute	National Urban Planning Institute	Bahir Dar University

Source: The 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office

Figure 1. The 1996 master plan of Bahir Dar city.Source:The 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office

Figure 2. The 2006 integrated development plan of Bahir Dar City.

Source: The 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office

As shown in Figure 3, during the second land use plan preparation, the total area coverage of the city at the time increased from 240.8 ha to 3862.2 ha (Alene et al. 2012). The real urban land coverage of the city, however, was only 2645.5 ha by the conclusion of the second plan’s planning phase, or 10 years later (Figure 3). This means that the actual spatial area of the urban development was less than the proposed 1,216.7 ha.

Figure 3. The 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries, the urban development limit in 2006, and the then agricultural and natural land of Bahir Dar City and its surrounding.

Source: produced by integrating information such as field surveys, satellite image, and the 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar city from the 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office.

The third ULUP for the city of Bahir Dar, which was intended to serve around 170,000 urban residents, was prepared in 2006 (Figure 2) (FUPI, BDMCA 2006). Land-use classes were also intended to incorporate 10 land-use classes with an organised road network, much like the earlier plan. The 2006 city plan significantly extended the total area coverage of the city from 2645.5 ha to 6238.8 ha, as depicted in Figure 3. However, in contrast to the previous one, all of the plan’s proposed land area was used to build structures.

4.2. Contribution of the ULUPs to groundwater recharging capacity and flood risk reduction

The results show that the ULUPs of Bahir Dar city have contributed to an increase in the likelihood of groundwater contamination and pollution (see Table 3, Figures 4 and 5). Because they have directed the urban expansion in directions where groundwater levels are extremely shallow and where the ground is comparatively more permeable, allowing for the passage of liquid urban waste. In spite of the fact that the soil type and topography of the areas included in the ULUPs allow for a good groundwater recharge capacity, it is clear that the ground-sealing effect of urban expansion will undoubtedly increase the frequency of flooding and may reduce the area’s natural capacity to recharge groundwater (Wakode et al. 2018). As a result, floods can result in significant damage, which negatively affects the efficiency of food and energy resources while jeopardising water security.

Figure 4. The 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries, the ‘contour map’, and ‘soil permeability map’ of Bahir Dar city and its surrounding.

Source: produced by integrating information such as soil permeability map and the 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar city from the 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office.

Figure 5. The 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar City and its surrounding and ground water table map of the area.

Source: produced by integrating information such as ground water table map and the 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar city from the 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office.

Table 3. The 1996 and 2006 ULUPs of Bahir Dar versus coverages of Soil primality, Slope, water table depth, and agricultural land loss

	The 1996 ULUP	The 2006 ULUP	Remark
soil permeability	100% Moderate	100% moderate	See Figure 4
Slope (0%–10%)	Covered 98% of the total area	Covered 99% of the area	See Figure 4
Water table depth (<=12 m)	Covered 79.5% of the total area	Covered 90.6% of the total area	See Figure 5
Agricultural land loss due to urban expansion	3,621.4 hectares	3,593.3 hectares	See Figure 6

Table 4. Morphological measurements of the 1996 & the 2006 land use plans of Bahir Dar City.

Morphological Measurements	The 1996 City Plan	The 2006 City Plan
Population projection	300,000	170,000
Total Area of the ULUP (in sq.km)	48.9	60.1
Total proposed streets length (in km)	225	356
Total number of proposed blocks	310	1224
Proposed Average Block size (in sq.km)	0.16	0.05
Standard deviation of Block Size	0.23	0.32
Proposed Population Density (inhabitants per sq.km.)	6,135	2,828
Proposed Street Density (length in km per sq.km)	4.6	5.9
Proposed Block Density (number per sq.km)	6	20

Source: Calculated from the 1996 and the 2006 ULUPs and reports of Bahir Dar city.

One of the expected roles of ULUPs is to enhance groundwater recharge capacity and reduce flood risk in urban areas as part of sustainable urban development. However, the results indicate that ULUPs in Bahir Dar city did not fulfil this role effectively. The main reason for this discrepancy was the lack of consideration for water resource efficiency as a quality criterion for ULUPs. Consequently, the 1996 and 2006 ULUPs of the city of Bahir Dar were actually altering groundwater, both qualitatively and quantitatively, according to post-plan implementation studies (Wondie 2009). This study asserts, however, that it is conceivable to foresee this happening before the plans were put into action and the issues appeared. In other words, if the applied evaluation criteria had been used at that time, the results of this study can show that it had been recognised that the city’s two consecutive (the 1996 and the 2006) ULUPs did not maintain the existing groundwater recharging capability and pollution prevention. In conclusion, the study showed that the quality indicators currently in use were insufficient to assess the contribution of ULUPs to groundwater efficiency. Because no corrective measures were taken and the problem was not discovered using the current quality measurements prior to the plans’ approval and implementation, without knowing how the plans would ultimately affect resource efficiency and later sustainable development, they were accepted and implemented.

4.3. Contribution of the ULUPs to the minimum use of energy for urban transport

Compact cities have an energy advantage (Zhao and Zhang 2018); hence, ULUPs play a big part in lowering the energy used for regular urban transportation. Energy use per capita can be decreased in high-density urban development with features like maximum population size, quantity of urban services, and street length per unit of urban spatial area (Inchul 2019). Given this information (see Table 3), the anticipated population densities of the 1996 and 2006 ULUPs—6,135 and 2,828 residents per sq. km, respectively – could be judged to be sufficiently successful in reducing the energy used for urban transportation. Urban areas with high population density are beneficial for lowering energy use per capita because they are larger than the GHS-POP norm of 1500 residents per sq. km (Inchul 2019; commission 2020).

The projected densities, however, were incorrect because the population predictions for 1996 were completely wrong compared to the actual population, which was 96,140 in 1994 (CSA 1995) and 180,174 in 2007 (CSA 2008). Otherwise, if the estimated populations in 1996 and 2006 were 300,000 and 170,000, respectively, it would appear that Bahir Dar City’s population declined between 1996 and 2006, which is not entirely consistent with reality. Additionally, it goes against the findings of a recent study that found Ethiopia and other emerging nations have seen a sharp rise in their urban populations (United Nations 2019). Despite the fact that the 1996 population projection issue may directly affect how the 1996 land use plan’s contribution is measured, this analysis used the number as the input for population density indicators. This study’s focus is on using anticipated population density as a measure of how effectively the proposal reduces energy consumption for urban transportation rather than how to accurately project the urban population.

Population density, street density, and block density are the three various methods of measuring urban density that can be used to determine how the two ULUPs were successful in using energy consumption for urban transport sustainably (Table 3, Table 4). The spacing of street intersections regulates block length, which cannot exceed 160 metres. Additionally, pedestrian and bicycle connections must be within 100 metres (Handy et al. 2003). This means block density is about 40–90 blocks per sq. km, and street density is 12–20 km per sq. km. However, according to the findings, the average proposed block sizes were 0.16 sq. km with a standard deviation of 0.23 and 0.05 sq. km with a standard deviation of 0.32 in the 1996 and 2006 ULUPs, respectively. A standard deviation of zero indicates that all blocks in the city are the same. The numerals tell us there was a minimal difference among the proposed block sizes. Thus, it can be clearly seen that the 1996 plan was within, while the 2006 plan was beyond the recommended range of 0.01–0.03 sq. km (Handy et al. 2003). However, the proposed block densities of both the 1996 and 2006 plans were not effective in relation to urban transport energy savings as their densities were below the recommended range of 40–90 blocks per square kilometre (Handy et al. 2003).

Table 1 demonstrates that the anticipated street densities in the 1996 and 2006 plans (4.6 and 5.9) were below the advised range of 12–20 km per square kilometre (Handy et al. 2003). As a result, neither the 1996 nor the 2006 plans’ suggested street densities were successful in reducing the energy used for urban transportation. As a result, frequent use of automobiles increases GHG emissions, which, in addition to other economic, social, and environmental harms, can also have an adverse effect on water and food resources.

ULUPs should improve urban sustainability by minimising the use of energy for urban transport. However, the ULUPs of Bahir Dar city failed to achieve this goal effectively. The main reason for this failure was the neglect of energy resource efficiency as a measure of ULUP quality. Consequently, studies conducted after the plan was put into action revealed that the city of Bahir Dar’s two successive ULUPs (the 1996 and 2006) were actually having a negative impact on the amount of energy used for regular urban transportation (SATP-Ethiopia 2018). However, this study argues that it is possible to predict the future before plans are put into action and issues arise. In other words, if the study’s evaluation criteria had been used back then, it would have been clear that the city’s two successive land use plans (from 1996 and 2006) were ineffective at reducing the energy consumed for urban transportation. In conclusion, the findings showed that the ULUPs’ contribution to the efficient use of energy for urban transportation could not be accurately assessed using existing quality metrics. Because the issue was not identified prior to the plan’s approval and implementation, no corrective actions were taken, and as a result, the plans were approved and put into effect. Thus, the issue that the post-implementation study had revealed was brought about.

4.4. Contribution of the ULUPs to sustainability of food production

Bahir Dar city, like most other Ethiopian urban centres, is predominantly situated practically in the middle of an agricultural region with ‘fertile soil’ (Adam 2014b). The ability of the soil to support plant growth and maximise crop yield is referred to here as fertile soil, which might help to explain why the lands were productive and better suited for agricultural food production than urban expansion (Patzel et al. 2000). The study’s findings indicate that 3,621.4 and 3,593.3 hectares of agricultural areas with good soil fertility were converted into built environments as a result of the ULUPs in 1996 and 2006, respectively (see Table 3 and Figure 6). In addition, their proposals included a bigger area than the actual amount of land needed for urban expansion, which included unconsumed rural lands from its surroundings until the end of the planning period.

Figure 6. The 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar City and its surrounding and soil fertility map of the area.

Source: produced by integrating information such as soil fertility map and the 1996 and 2006 ULUP (urban expansion plan) boundaries of Bahir Dar city from the 2030 Bahir Dar Structural Plan Preparation Project Office.

We can use Cochrane and Bekele’s (2017) paper as support here to better comprehend these numbers in terms of food production, specifically the key crops (‘teff’ and maize) in Ethiopia and in the vicinity of Bahir Dar city (Cochrane and Bekele 2017). The data article states that ‘teff’ and maize have annual national average yields of 12 and 15 quintals per hectare, respectively. We may therefore claim that, ceteris paribus, it has been decided that annually, roughly 8,658 metric tonnes of teff or 10,822 metric tonnes of maize will be cut from the total national production merely because of the city of Bahir Dar’s ULUPs for the past 20 years. As a result, the cumulative consequences of such urban growth may negatively impact not just the city’s and its region’s food security but also the country’s gross domestic product, resulting in harm to the economy, society, and environment.

Food security is an important aspect of urban sustainability that ULUPs should support. However, the ULUPs of Bahir Dar city did not perform well in this regard. The main reason for this poor performance was the omission of food security as a quality indicator for ULUPs. Consequently, according to research conducted after the 1996 and 2006 Bahir Dar ULUPs were implemented, the region’s agricultural food productivity was actually negatively affected (Haregeweyn et al. 2012a; Admasu et al. 2020; Fitawok et al. 2020)). This study contends that it is possible to anticipate this happening before the plans are put into action and difficulties arise. In other words, the results can also demonstrate that, had the agricultural food productivity evaluation criteria been used at the time, it would have been acknowledged that the city’s two successive ULUPs did not only help to preserve the nearby agricultural land but also contributed to the exacerbation of the loss of fertile agricultural lands (see Figure 6). In summary, the findings showed that the current quality metrics for ULUPs were insufficient to assess their contribution to the sustainability of food production. Because the issue was not identified prior to the plan’s approval and implementation, no corrective actions were taken, and as a result, the plans were approved and put into effect. Thus, the issue that the post-implementation studies had revealed was brought about.

5. Conclusion and recommendations

ULUPs can affect both the natural and built environment in significant and lasting ways. Normally, ULUPs aim to use resources efficiently, which is a key aspect of sustainable urban development. Therefore, before implementation, ULUPs in Ethiopia have been reviewed based on certain quality criteria. This paper aims to evaluate the quality measures of the urban land use plans of Bahir Dar city.

According to the findings of this study, the relevant authorities do not approve ULUPs in Bahir Dar city and other cities in the country before ensuring that they meet certain quality standards. However, the study also revealed that the current quality indicators of these ULUPs do not capture the resource efficiency of supporting sustainable urban development. Hence, these ULUPs have a negligible role in evaluating the plan’s impact on sustainable urban development. Moreover, the study identifies three critical areas where these ULUPs need improvement.

Firstly, there was no sustainable food production as a result of the ULUPs. This is due to the lack of consideration given to protecting the existing agricultural land while choosing the geographical areas for ULUPs (proposed urban expansion). The plans really made the loss of productive and prospective agricultural land in outlying areas worse. Therefore, the ULUPs did not contribute to the sustainability of food production. This is because the spatial areas for proposed urban development were not selected in such a way that they could serve to protect the existing agricultural land. Rather, the plans exacerbated the loss of fertile and potential agricultural land in peripheral areas. Secondly, the ULUPs were ineffective in maintaining the quantity and quality of groundwater. This is because they covered spatial areas that were prone to groundwater pollution from municipal solid waste. They also reduced the natural groundwater recharge and increased the flood risk. Thirdly, they were ineffective at reducing the energy used for urban transportation, as their block and street designs were below the recommended density range.

This study also shows that the problems found after the plans were implemented could have been avoided or fixed earlier. The planners could have made better decisions if they had used the criteria from this study before approving and implementing the two urban land use plans. Thus, this study shows that by making the applicable criteria reflect the effectiveness of the utilisation of these fundamental resources, the quality metrics for ULUPs in Bahir Dar city may be improved. Therefore, this study recommends the inclusion of quality criteria that evaluate the efficiency of ULUPs in water resources that can protect existing and potential food production areas, protect the groundwater level, assess the efficiency of ULUPs in energy resources that can limit the coverage of paved structures and maximise urban density, and gage the efficiency of ULUPs in food resources that can prevent groundwater contamination by municipal solid waste.

The proposed quality criteria for ULUPs can enhance their quality and environmental performance and align them with the SDGs. The criteria are based on three metrics that measure the efficiency of ULUPs in water, energy, and food resources. Each metric has a direct link to a specific SDG, as explained below:

• The metric for water resource efficiency aims to prevent groundwater pollution from municipal solid waste, increase natural groundwater recharge capacity, and reduce flood risks. These outcomes can support the achievement of SDG 6, which is to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

• The metric for energy resource efficiency aims to increase urban density, shorten travel distances within the urban centre, and reduce energy consumption for urban transportation. These outcomes can support the achievement of SDG 7, which is to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

• The metric for food resource efficiency aims to protect the productive and potential agricultural land that is suitable for food production. These outcomes can support the achievement of SDG 2, which is to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030.

Given that Ethiopia uses the same criteria for quality measurement, particularly the planning standards, there is a high likelihood that the same issues will arise during the planning process across the nation’s cities. As a result, the ULUPs of the country have adverse effects on water, energy, and food resources. Therefore, the recommendations given in this study, based on the proposed quality criteria, can be useful for other urban centres in the country, and their outcome would reduce the negative consequences of ULUPs at the national level.

However, the traditional land administration systems of the country hardly support applying the proposed quality indicators to ULUPs. Because it is too bureaucratic, complex, expensive, not transparent, and time-consuming, which makes data acquisition very difficult. But e-land administration has proven to be a solution to these problems as it speeds up and facilitates land administration activities, including the spatial planning component, by integrating a variety of experts, organisations, and agencies using automated technology (Hichem and Yacine 2022).

E-land administration, also known as electronic land administration, refers to the utilisation of electronic and digital technologies in the governance and management of land resources. It involves the implementation of systems and processes that support the recording, regulation, and dissemination of information related to land ownership, value, use, and conservation (Madumere 2019; Todorovski et al. 2021). E-land administration can reduce costs, enhance productivity, and facilitate information sharing, ultimately contributing to sustainable urban development by:

• Enabling online transactions and services, such as land registration, valuation, taxation, and mapping, can save time and money for both the public and private sectors (United Nations 2020b).

• enhancing public participation and consultation, which can increase the legitimacy and acceptability of land use plans and reduce potential conflicts and disputes.

• supporting integrated and coordinated land use planning, which can optimise the use of land resources and avoid duplication and inconsistency of plans and regulations (Metternicht 2017).

•reducing the time and cost of land transactions and services, such as land registration, valuation, taxation, and mapping, which can benefit both the public and private sectors (World Bank Group 2017; Seelall 2021).

• improving the quality and availability of land data can facilitate evidence-based decision-making and monitoring of land use policies and plans (United Nations 2020b).

E-land administration can also support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that have a significant land component, such as ending poverty, ending hunger, achieving gender equity, building sustainable cities, protecting life on land, and promoting peace, justice, and strong institutions (Todorovski et al. 2021). Therefore, this study promotes e-land administration as important for land use planning as it reduces information collection and operating costs, increases productivity and data reliability, and facilitates information sharing. Consequently, in order to ensure sustainable urban development in the country, every ULUP or urban expansion plan preparation work should at the very least take these resources’ efficiency into account. To enhance the current quality measures for proactively assessing the nation’s contribution to urban planning, additional criteria should be added. Therefore, there is a need for future research or potential further investigations to identify contextual quality metrics that can capture the multidimensional nature of ULUP and the SDGs. Such metrics should be based on a comprehensive and participatory approach that considers the local context, stakeholder preferences, and trade-offs among different goals and indicators. Moreover, these metrics should be applicable to measure the quality of ULUP in a systematic and transparent manner and to provide feedback and guidance for improving the planning process and outcomes. The context of each urban region and the availability of data, however, should be taken into consideration when modifying and changing the criteria. As a result, they assist planners in maximising their potential synergies while minimising the detrimental effects of their ULUPs on these vital resources. Moreover, they assist them in making the necessary adjustments (if necessary) before their ULUPs are approved, implemented, and impact the sustainability of the development as a whole.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by ‘DAAD, In-Country/In-Region Scholarship Program SLGA, 2018’, with grant number [57432578].

Notes on contributors

Behailu Melesse Digafe

Behailu Melesse Digafe is a lecturer and Ph.D. candidate at the Institute of Land Administration, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia. His research focuses on land policy and governance. He has a B.Sc. in Urban Planning and an M.Sc. in Urban Design and Development. He has over seven years of experience as an urban planner and designer, working with the Amhara Urban Planning Institute on more than 30 projects. He has also held leadership positions such as the Head of the Architecture Department and contributed to various community service initiatives. He currently teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in his areas of expertise.

Achamyeleh Gashu Adam

Dr. Achamyeleh Gashu Adam is an associate professor of Land Governance at the Institute of Land Administration at Bahir Dar University. His educational background and research interests cover a broad range of related areas such as land governance, land policy, land administration, land tenure and use management, land development management, and land registration and information systems. Achamyeleh has served as Dean of the Institute of Land Administration at Bahir Dar University, and in various other positions within the university and outside of it. To date, he has published more than 20 scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals and more articles are forthcoming.

Gebeyehu Belay Shibeshi

Dr. Gebeyehu Belay Shibeshi is an associate professor and Vice Dean of the Land Administration Institute of Bahir Dar University in Ethiopia. He has specialized in cadaster and registration systems. He has a bachelors’ degree from Alemaya University, an M.Sc. from KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden, and a Ph.D. from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) in Vienna, Austria. Gebeyehu has also had 15 years of experience in the industry and served in different capacities in the Regional Bureau of Rural Land Administration and Use of the Amhara region in Ethiopia. He is now fully engaged in teaching, research, and community service activities at Bahir Dar University.