Effect of Covid 19 on butchers and their coping strategies in Kampala district

Abstract

The study examined the effect of Covid-19 on butchers and their coping strategies using data collected from120 butchers in Kampala City. The results show that COVID-19 reduced volumes of meat supplied and sold, number of consumers and increased the buying and selling prices during the lockdown. After the lockdown was lifted, number of consumers, Quantity of meat supplied and sold increased but below original levels while prices continued to increase. The effects of Covid-19 were associated with butcher’s experience, age, liquidity, and number of meat sources. The main coping strategies were to increase the sales price, reducing quantity bought from the source, using E-transactions and diversification to alternative economic activities mainly farming, trading and boda-boda riding. Based on results, we recommend that any support to butcher men should target youths and inexperienced butcher men to boost their liquidity and encourage them to diversify by selling different types of meat.

Keywords:

• Butchers
• covid-19
• Kampala
• beef
• and goat’s meat

Reviewing Editor:

• Escudero-Gilete M. Luisa, Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

Subjects:

• Agriculture
• Agricultural Economics
• Agriculture and Food

1. Introduction

Meat is one of the most significant, nutritious, and favored food items available to masses or people to aid the fulfilment of most of their body requirements (Higgs, 2000). It is a valuable source of high biological value protein, iron, vitamin B12 as well as other B complex vitamins, zinc, selenium, and phosphorus. These micronutrients are important in maintaining a healthy and balanced diet for optimal human growth and development. Although these nutrients can be supplied in sufficient amounts by consumption of a range of fruit and vegetables, in many developing countries and poor households, where the availability of such foods may be limited, access to meat often protects against malnutrition and improves child cognitive development (Salters, 2018). However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the economic activities across the world thus generating wide-ranging public health, economic, and social impacts including food value chains (The Covid-19 pandemic and meat supply chains; Hobbs, 2021).

Uganda reported its first Covid-19 case on 21 March 2020 (Ronald & Bongomin, 2020) and to curb the spread of the virus, the government of Uganda imposed two lockdowns. The first lockdown was imposed on 20 March 2020 where the government banned all international movements, closed all schools and institutions, stopped public gatherings including churches, non-agricultural places were allowed to continue operating while observing the Standard Operating Procedures set by the ministry of health, all monthly agricultural markets were suspended, public means of transport were allowed to operate while observing the SOPs and all these directives were to be followed for 32 days (Ssebwami, 2020). After the lockdown, the country was opened however after some time the lockdown was re-imposed to curb the covid19 cases that were increasing. The second lockdown was imposed on 6 June, and this was imposed for 42 days. In total Uganda experienced 170,504 coronavirus cases, 3630 deaths and 100,431 recoveries (Worldometer, 2023) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Stringency index and cumulative number of Covid-19 cases in Uganda from January 2020 to July 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the response of government of closing schools, bars, hotels, recreation sites and limiting movements adversely affected many sectors of life and forced the governments globally to enforce a lock down where movements were restricted as public means of transport were stopped from operating (Ronald & Bongomin, 2020). As results, the economic activities including agricultural production, trade/marketing, and employment as well as consumption were negatively affected (Patricia et al., 2021). In Uganda, more than two thirds of the people experienced a shock in their income because of the Covid-19 crisis thus leading to worsening of food security and dietary quality scores (Kansiime et al., 2021). The pandemic preventive measures including travel restrictions, border controls, and country lockdowns, did not only take a huge toll on the economy but also the livestock industry, such as global meat production and supply chain.

The Covid 19 pandemic indirectly or directly affected the supply and demand of meat through the restrictions and lockdowns imposed by most of the governments. The sudden closure of livestock markets in March to October 2020 left cattle traders, who are the critical part of the beef value chains with market-ready animals and unable to access buyers (Lynch 2020). Ilukor et al. (2022) found that COVID-19 negatively affected cattle trades and resulted into reduction in cattle sales, erosion in operating capital, failure to sell animals while others abandoned the business. Also, the unemployment caused by the pandemic also forced consumers to substitute the highly priced products like meat for cheaper substitutes. However, the effect of Covid on incomes of different households is different basing on if the household stayed working full time during the lockdown or the household was fully subjected to unemployment. Households that stayed working full time saved a lot of money with the reduced expenditures on costs like transport while households that were fully subjected to unemployment lost a lot of their incomes (The Covid-19 pandemic and meat supply chains; Hobbs, 2021). In addition, in other countries there was reduction in meat production as some meat packaging facilities stopped operating while others reduced on the number of working hours (Ijaz et al., 2021).

Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of covid-19 on the meat value chain and its actors, no study to best of our knowledge at least in Uganda has been undertaken to understand impact of COVID-19 on the butcher shops and butcher men yet and yet their role in linking consumers and the meat producers especially abattoirs and cattle traders is very critical in meat value chain (Kyayesimira et al., 2018). They are the main customers of fresh meat and to a limited extent of meat products but play acritical role in ensuring that customers have access to enough and quality meat. Butchers are important actors in the commercial chain of meat where with all their knowledge and beliefs, they are able to select the best types of meat and meet the consumers’ expectations.

In this study, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on Butchers and their coping strategies in Kampala with objective of generating strategies to ensure sustainable to supply of meat products during similar kind of the pandemics. More specifically, we determine whether Covid-19 affect the butchers in Kampala or not, we characterize butchers based on whether they affected or not; assess the effects of COVID-19 on meat supply, sales, identify the variables that lead to magnitude of effect and recovery. The hypotheses were; Covid19 led to a reduction in the volume of sales of meat, Covid 19 led to a reduction in the number of meat customers. In this paper we define Butcher shop as any place that has been licensed for the sale of raw meat and a Butcher as any person that has received a license to sell raw meat (KCC., 2006). In the next section, we present study area, methodology, results, discussion, conclusion, and recommendations.

2. Literature review

2.1. Overview of Covid-19 out-break in Uganda

The Chinese authorities notified the World Health Organization (WHO) on 31 December 2019 about a mysterious respiratory infection which was spreading in one of its provinces and by 12 January 2020 World Health Organization (WHO) had confirmed that a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was the cause of the respiratory illness with pneumonia symptoms and it was later named COVID-19 (Ssonko & Kawooya, 2020). Kiwanuka (2020) reported that Uganda’s preparedness to Covid-19 started before its first case where the Ministry of Health implemented four public orders that included notification of Covid-19, prohibition of entry in the country, control of Covid 19 and prevention of Covid 19. On 21 March, 2020 Uganda reported its first case of Covid-19 and by the end of 30th July there were 1147 cases with 1028 recoveries, Uganda reported its first death on23rd July 2020 (Kawuki et al., 2020).

Basing on the WHO guidelines and the global practice, Uganda instituted various restrictions to contain the spread of the disease around the country (Kansiime et al., 2021). On 30 March 2020, the government of Uganda introduced 33 measures that were to help prevent on the spread of the virus and these included closure of schools, colleges and universities; prohibition of gatherings of 10 or more people; country-wide travel restrictions and a curfew running between 19:00 and 06:30 hrs, among other measures and these measures were enforced till 2 June 2020 and during that period between March and June, the number of cases were observed to have fallen (Matovu et al., 2021). With the relaxation of the measures, a sharp increase was reported and by December, Kampala was having the highest cases (Matovu et al. 2021).

According to Okello et al. (2020) the preventive measures that have been popularized by WHO, governments and ministry of health worldwide include washing hands regularly using soap and water, social distancing, not touching the face, covering the mouth and nose while sneezing, wearing masks, staying at home while not feeling well and seeking medical attention when one has any symptoms.

2.2. Overview of meat sales and consumption

Meat is a good source of energy and some essential nutrients including proteins and some micro nutrients such as iron, zinc vitamin B12 (Godfray et al., 2018). According to (Oil et al.), beef is the most important source of meat for human consumption and its demand has greatly increased because of the increasing population, change in tastes and growth in people’s income, the sector has been identified as the most vibrant in the meat industry.

The global average per capita consumption of meat and the amount of meat consumed are rising and this is because of the different factors which are increasing individual incomes and growing population growth (Godfray et al., 2018). The per capita consumption of all meat in Uganda is 12.1 kg, which is far from the 50 kg advised by both FAO and WHO leaving the country with a big consumption gap and therefore there’s a lot that needs to be done to satisfy the local market plus the export market. The main markets of meat are divided into two segments are these are the mainstream and premium segments, at the retail level the markets are serviced by a network of road side and market stall butcheries and these account for 75–80% of the meat sales in the country and on the other hand are the premium markets that account for about 16% of the meat sales and these are served by the modern butcheries and supermarkets. Also, the Ugandan market for processed meat is still undeveloped with a few companies with small scale establishments producing meat products and meat value addition has only been done by meat processors with only one in Kampala with a notable operation.

According to Merlino (2017), it has been reported that the global meat consumption is undergoing a qualitative and quantitative change with a shift from red meat consumption to white meat consumption, (Godfray et al., 2018) reports that although meat is source of nutrients for families, it also increases the risk of chronical illnesses for example colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease.

2.3. Effect of Covid-19 on the sale of meat and meat products

The pandemic affected the livestock industry by taking a hug toll on the meat production and supply chains (Waltenburg et al., 2020). Due to several countries’ travel restrictions, border controls, and country lockdowns, compromised meat production and supply due to difficulty in purchasing animal feeds plus other inputs (Aday, 2020). This caused problems of restriction of transportation of live animals and hence a drop in the capacity of meat and meat products causing a decreased sale condition that slowed down market activity. Additionally, there was a decrease in government capacities to treat, prevent and control animal diseases due to reallocation of funds needed to respond to the pandemic effectively. Trans-boundary diseases like foot and mouth disease, African swine fever, avian influenza plus other infectious diseases severely compromised meat production and supply (Hashem et al., 2020).

According to FAO (2020), the virus directly and indirectly impacted overall meat production due to the rapid spread among meat plant workers. As a result of prolonged contact with infected co-workers, inability to follow social distancing at the work place, shared working areas and common transportation methods to and from work (ILO, 2020). Many plants began to close to stop the spread of the virus on larger scale and this contributed to the sharp decline in the supply chain causing a decreased meat production capacity. According to Marchant and Boyle, the production capacity loss reached 25–43% in the United States slaughterhouses.

The decrease in production, processing, distribution and marketing potential made it difficult for farmers while searching for a more suitable market to sell their animals (WHO, 2020). Furthermore, due to temporary shutdown of food eateries, the sale of expensive primal meat cuts was decreased hence income coming from meat and meat products declined. During this circumstance, meat production decreased from 338.9 metric tons (carcass weight) in 2019 to 333.0 metric tons in 2020 (Yang et al., 2020).

2.4. Coping strategies to shocks

According to Isaac et al. (2021), coping strategy decisions depend on shock characteristics which include nature, intensity, frequency and duration, these shocks may be isolated individual shocks, a sequence of two or more shocks that may be independent of the other or related. The different coping strategies one would choose to reduce on the effects of the shock depend on the costs where more intense shocks may cause higher costs and one might be forced to adopt different strategies when dealing with less intense shocks (Isaac et al., 2021). A more intense shock may lead to depletion of assets in order to maintain the pre- shock levels especially where savings are not enough for coping (Isaac et al., 2021).

According to FAO (2020) among the main impacts of Covid 19 are potential shortages of food items, food price spikes and lost incomes as markets have been disrupted, however its critical to preserve livelihood and food production as well as support incomes to ensure that the vulnerable people can access food and to reduce on the increased post-harvest losses due to limitations in transport and access to markets, improved storage facilities and minimal processing of meat products has been introduced.

Hashem et al. (2020) in their study reported that the experience acquired through the Covid 19 crisis may also contribute to optimizing the part of livestock supply chain that includes processing, retail and marketing by strengthening the relationship between producers, retailers, targeted markets and consumers, the inefficient relationship among the mentioned parties led to wastage of meat which would have been saved by using the internet and online platforms.

With the Covid-19 situation, there are only two alternatives of which one is to try to go back to the normal we knew before so to avoid the social impacts of high levels of unemployment or to consider the new scenario as a turning point so as to make a new start (Carracedo et al. 2021). For businesses to survive, it will depend on their ability to adapt to the new situation and since small businesses have been hit hardest, they will have to reinvent themselves so as to survive in this scenario (Carracedo et al. 2021).

3. Materials and methods

3.1. Study design and study area

The study adopted a cross sectional research design, which involved both the descriptive and quantitative design and it, helped to understand the descriptive characteristics between traders dealing in the different types of meat (beef & goatmeat) and the impact of Covid-19 on their business. The target population were butchers found in the five divisions of Kampala that is Lubaga, Kawempe, Nakawa, Central and Makindye divisions. The area was chosen because it’s the most densely populated city in Uganda with an estimate of 7 million people (day population) in 2020 by UBOS in an area of 8451.9 km² (Bamweyana et al., 2020). The sample interviewed were selected using proportional stratified random sampling using sampling frame obtained from Kampala City Authority. The study was conducted between 7 January 2022 and 2 February 2022 and a total of 120 butchers were interviewed with 38 out of 77 from Lubaga division, 31 out of 56 from Makindye division, 21 out of 58 from Kawempe division, 18 out of 30 from central division and 12 out of 36 from Nakawa division (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Map of showing the different divisions in Kampala.

Primary data was collected using a Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) and the questionnaire was program using the Kobo collect tool. Data collected included the socio-demographic data including age, marital status, education level, gender, the impact of Covid-19 on meat sales, meat supply, prices, and customers. The summary of the data collected is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Description of variables.

Variable	Number	Mean	Std.Dev
Trader’s years in business	120	11.4	7.8
Age of the trader	120	36	8.7
If the trader completed primary = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader is married = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.8	0.4
If the trader is male = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.97	0.2
If the trader is solely owned = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.7	0.4
If the trader deals in beef = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.9	0.3
If the trader’s transport costs were affected = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.1
If the trader’s rent costs were affected = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader’s utilities costs were affected = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader’s wage costs were affected = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.6	0.5
If the trader’s beef sales declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.9	0.3
If the trader’s beef sales recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.99	0.9
If the trader’s goat meat sales declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader’s goatmeat sales recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.2
If the traders beef supply declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.9	0.3
If the traders beef supply recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.1
If the traders goatmeat supply declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the traders goatmeat supply recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.97	0.2
If the trader’s meat sales declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.2
If the trader’s meat sales recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.1
If the trader’s customers declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.1
If the trader’s beef supply price reduced = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.2	0.4
If the trader’s beef supply price recovered = 1 zero otherwise	120	0.8	0.4
If the trader’s goatmeat supply price declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.2	0.4
If the trader’s goatmeat supply price recovered = 1 zero otherwise	120	0.9	0.3
If the trader’s beef selling price declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader’s beef selling price recovered = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.8	0.4
If the trader’s goatmeat selling price declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.4	0.5
If the trader’s goatmeat selling price declined = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.98	0.2
If the trader acquired credit = 1 and zero otherwise	120	0.26	0.44

3.2. Analysis

The main research questions were as follows that we set out to answer were: (i) did COVID-19 outbreak affect butchers?, (ii) How were the butcher’s affected?, (iii) which category of the Butchers were affected by COVID-19?, (iv) Was there a significant difference in meat supply, sales, and prices before and during COVID-19 and during and after covid-19 restrictions were relaxed?, and (v) How did the Butchers adapt to the COVID-19 restrictions? To answer these questions, the two-sample test of proportions for the difference in proportion using group and two-sample t test for differences in means as well as a two-sample test of proportions using variables to test the changes in pre-COVID-19, during COVID-19 restrictions and after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions using the STATA software were ran. In addition, the bar and line graphs were used to compare the changes in selected variables in pre-COVID-19, during COVID-19 restrictions and after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.

Also, we generated the variables of effect (during the lockdown-before Covid19) and recovery (after the lockdown-during the lockdown) for meat supply and meat sales for both beef and goats’ meat. We then estimate a truncated Tobit model to assess the correlates of the magnitude of the effect of COVID-19 and recovery after the restrictions on different variables including supply and sales between pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 restriction. The Tobit model on the magnitude of effect of COVID-19 and the recovery after the COVID-19 restrictions on meat supply and sales is presented as below. $$\begin{array}{l}\text{The\hspace{0.33em}Tobit\hspace{0.33em} model}\hspace{0.17em}\text{\hspace{0.33em}can\hspace{0.33em} be\hspace{0.33em} re}\hspace{0.17em}\text{presented\hspace{0.33em} as};\hspace{0.17em}\\ y_{\mathit{\text{it}}}=\left\{\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_{\mathit{\text{it}}}+{\beta }^T{X}_{\mathit{\text{it}}}+{\epsilon }_{\mathit{\text{it}}}\hspace{0.17em}{y}_{\mathit{\text{it}}}\ge 0\\ 0\hspace{0.17em}{y}_{\mathit{\text{it}}<0}\end{array}\right.\end{array}$$ where $y_{\mathit{\text{it}}}$ is the dependent variable, ${\beta }^T$ is the unknown parameters and ${\epsilon }_{\mathit{\text{it}}}\sim N\left(0,\sigma 2\right)$. $X_{\mathit{\text{it}}}$ are the independent variables and these include respondent’s age, years in business, youth, primary, married, sole owner, if covid affected transport costs, rent costs, utility costs and the wages. In estimating Tobit model, the variable of magnitude of effect for both meat supply and sales were mostly negative and they were transformed to positive by multiplying them with −1.

4. Results

4.1. Characteristics of butchers by type of meat sold

As shown in Table 2, most of the Butchers that sell goat meat are male (98.11%), married (75.47), have secondary education (54.72) as their highest level of education and their source their meat from abattoir (64.15%). Also, most of the Butchers who deal in beef are male (97.32), married (79.46) and most of them have secondary (52.68) as their highest level of education. Majority of the beef Butchers get their meat supply from slaughterhouses, and some (3.57%) buy their meat from slaughter sheds. Most of the butchers are solely owned (75%) and 29% are operated by youths. Results also reveal that the share of beef butchers getting their meat from abattoir is significantly higher compared to the goatmeat butchers. Also, the share of butchers who reported Covid to have affected their wages were higher in beef than from goat.

Table 2. Characteristics of butcher traders by type of meat.

Variable	Goat (%)	Beef (%)	Difference
Gender
Male traders	98.11	97.32	0.79
Female	1.89	2.68	−0.79
Marital status
Married traders	75.47	79.46	−3.99
Not married	24.53	20.54	3.99
Education
Primary education	37.74	43.75	−6.01
Secondary	54.72	52.68	2.04
Tertiary	7.55	3.57	3.98
Source of meat
Abattoir	64.15	70.54	−6.39**
Slaughter house	56.6	74.11	−17.51
Slaughter shed	1.89	3.57	−1.68
Youth traders	30.19	28.57	1.62
Solely owned	67.92	75	−7.08
Covid 19 affected
Transport costs	100	53	57
Rent costs	11	46	−35
Utility costs	8	43	−35
Affected wages	28	69	−41***
Acquired credit	18	29	−11

***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01.

4.2. How did Covid-19 affect or change butcher business in Kampala

All the Butchers interviewed reported that they were affected by Covid 19. Results from the t test reveal that there was a significant difference between the periods of during the lockdown and before Covid 19 in the quantity meat supplied, the buying price of beef, meat sales, selling price of meat number of employees and customers. The quantity of beef and goats’ meat supplied and sold declined while the prices increased except that there was no significant difference in the buying price of goat meat (Table 3).

Table 3. T-test for effect of Covid 19.

Variable	During	Before	Difference
Beef
Quantity of beef supplied (kg/wk)	391.94	924	−532.06***
Buying price of beef (shs)	11636.36	9968.18	1668.18***
Beef sold (kg/wk)	325.29	825.29	−500***
Selling price of beef (shs)	13339.29	12339.29	1000***
Goat meat
Quantity of goat meat sold (kg/wk)	110.15	359.44	−249.29***
Buying price of goat’s meat (shs)	14452.83	13990.57	462.26
Goat sold (kg/wk)	103.81	325.36	−221.55***
Selling price of goatmeat (shs)	17037.74	16905.66	132.08
Number of employees	1	2	−1**
Weekly customers	141	340	−199.01***

***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01.

4.3. How are the butcher business performing post Covid-19

Also results reveal that there was a significant difference between the periods of after and during the lockdown in the quantity of meat supplied and sold, the buying and selling price of meat, the weekly customers, and the number of employees (Table 4). Therefore, butchers recovered from the effect of Covid-19 with the quantity of beef and goats’ meat supplied and sold increasing. However, the prices increased instead of declining.

Table 4. T test for post Covid behavior.

Variable	After	During	Difference
Beef
Qty of beef supply (Kg/wk)	635.19	391.94	243.25***
Buying price of beef	11830.36	9995.54	1834.82***
Beef sales (kg/wk)	547.97	325.29	222.68***
Selling price of beef	13870.54	13339.29	531.25***
Goat
Qty of goat meat supply (kg/wk)	190.87	110.15	80.72**
Buying price of goat’s meat	15235.85	14452.83	783.02*
Goat sales (kg/wk)	178.23	103.81	74.42***
Selling price of goatmeat	18396.23	17037.74	1358.49**
Number of employees	1.65	1.12	0.54**
Weekly customers	216.98	141.19	75.78***

***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

4.4. Effect of Covid 19 on daily beef and goat meat supply

Results from the study reveal that the quantity of beef and goat meat bought by the butchers from their sources during the lockdown reduced from the pre-COVID and after lifting the lockdown, the quantity of meat bought increased. The average daily supply of meat reduced to 55.99 kgs in beef and 15.74 kgs in goatmeat during the lockdown. However, after the lockdown was lifted, there was a gradual increase in the daily quantity of beef supplied (90.74 kgs) and goatmeat (27.27 kgs1). Goat meat was more affected during Covid 19 and also during the recovery process it recovered higher than beef (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Impact of Covid 19 on daily beef and goat supply.

4.5. Effect of Covid19 on weekly meat sales

The results from the study reveal that Covid 19 resulted to significant reduction in the weekly beef sales by 60.58% during the lockdown and significant increase of 68.46% after the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted (Figure 4). Also, the weekly average goatmeat sales significantly reduced by 68.09% during the Covid-19 and significantly increased by 71.69% after the lockdown was lifted. The effect for during and after the lockdown was higher in goatmeat than in beef (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Effect of Covid 19 on weekly meat sales.

4.6. Effect of Covid19 on the buying and selling price of meat

Results reveal that COVID-19 led to increase in both the buying and selling price of both beef and goatmeat. During Covid, the average buying price of beef significantly increased from ugx 9995.536 ($2.78) to ugx11636.36 ($3.14) and later significantly increased to ugx11830.36 ($3.2) after the Covid 19 restrictions were lifted. The average buying price of goat meat significantly increased from ugx 13990.57 ($ 3.89) to ugx14452.83 ($3.91) during the COVID-19 and then significantly increased to ugx15235.85 ($4.12) after lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. Also, the selling price of beef significantly increased from ugx 12339.29 ($3.43) to ugx13339.29 ($3.61) during the lockdown and then significantly increased to ugx13870.54 ($3.75) after the Covid-19 restrictions were lifted. The selling price of goat meat slightly increased from ugx 16905.66 ($4.69) to ugx17037.74 ($4.60) during the lockdown and then significantly increased to ugx18396.23 ($4.97) after the Covid-19 restrictions were lifted (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Covid effect on buying and selling price.

4.7. Effect of Covid 19 on the number of customers served every week

Results from the study show that Covid 19 had an impact on meat customers. There was decline in the average number of customers during the lockdown but later after the Covid 19 restrictions were lifted, there was a gradual increase in the average customers (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Effect on the number of customers served every week.

4.8. Correlates of the magnitude of Covid 19 effect on meat supply and meat sales

The magnitude of beef supply is positively correlated with customer effect, butchers that have attained primary level of education and married butchers, butchers whose utility costs were affected and negatively correlated with goat supply effect and butchers’ wages were affected by Covid 19. And the magnitude of goat supply is positively correlated with beef supply price effect, and traders who acquired credit because of Covid 19 and negatively correlated with goat supply price effect and beef supply effect.

For sales, the magnitude of beef sales is negatively correlated with the respondent’s age, customer effect and butchers whose wages were affected and positively correlated with the goat sale price effect and butchers whose utility costs were affected. And the magnitude of goat sales is negatively correlated with the number of years in business and the beef sale price effect (Table 5).

Table 5. Tobit results for meat supply and sales effect.

Variable	Magnitude
	Beef supply	Goat supply	Beef sale	Goat sale
Respondent age	−1.792	0.713	−25.045***	9.582
Years in business	1.302	−1.359	26.071**	−18.745*
Beef supply price effect	−0.011	0.01*
Goat supply price effect	0.006	−0.015***
Beef supply effect		−0.307**
Goat supply effect	−0.38**
Beef sale effect				−0.193
Goat sale effect			−0.161
Beef sale price effect			−0.041	−0.08***
Goat sale price effect			0.052***	−0.198
Customer effect	0.041***	−0.016	−0.339***	−0.032
Primary	27.225*	6.222	78.793	135.788
Married	24.712*	0.346	93.175	10.794
Sole owner	9.037	6.891	25.85	15.981
Rent costs were affected	10.858	0.108	−22.356	132.279
Utility costs were affected	38.176**	−21.054	203.019*	−74.009
Wages were affected	−30.884**	10.477	−265.162***	72.113
Covid led to credit	−3.092	19.115*	2.356	106.837

***p < 0.001;**p < 0.01;*p < 0.05.

4.9. Correlates of the recovery on meat supply and meat sales

The key variable explaining recovery in beef supply are goat supply recovery, customer recovery and the fact that Covid 19 affected the utility costs. The degree of recovery increases for all those variables. For goat supply, the key variables explaining it are the goat supply price recovery and beef supply recovery and the degree of recovery increases for both variables. Meanwhile, the key variables explaining recovery of beef sales are respondents age, goat sale price recovery, customer recovery and married butchers. The degree of recovery increases with customer recovery, among married butchers and it reduces for respondent age and goat sale price recovery. For goat sales, the degree of recovery increases for beef sale price recovery (Table 6).

Table 6. Linear regression and Tobit results for meat supply recovery.

Variable	Recovery
	Beef supply	Goat supply	Beef sales	Goat sales
Respondent age	0.546	0.393	−7.295*	0.756
Years in business	0.414	−0.647	5.21	−2.644
Beef supply price recovery	0.003	−0.002
Goat supply price recovery	−0.001	0.003***
Beef supply recovery		0.424***	−0.005
Goat supply recovery	0.708***
Goat sale price recovery			−0.017*	0.002
Beef sale price recovery			0.017	0.021**
Beef sale recovery
Goat sale recovery			0.181
Customer recovery	0.017*	0.006	0.271***	0.023
Primary	10.788	−0.446	52.54	9.225
Married	3.027	7.732	93.808*	19.327
Sole owner	−4.593	1.731	−2.567	−11.275
Rent costs were affected	4.948	3.206	22.271	17.27
Utility costs were affected	14.979*	−9.046	5.269	−45.294
Wages were affected	−3.909	8.155	−52.487	57.572
Covid led to credit	−3.801	−2.526	0.96	−38.502

***p < 0.001;**p < 0.01;*p < 0.05.

4.10. Coping strategies

Butchers were asked if Covid-19 affected their meat supply and 99% butchers reported that Covid 19 had affected their beef supply and 98% reported Covid 19 to have affected their goat supply. When asked how they coped up with the decrease in meat supply, 99.17% traders reported to have reduced on the quantity bought from the source, 32.5% used more than one source of supply and 0.83% coped up in other ways like borrowing money to buy the meat, stopped supplying goat’s meat (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Cope up with decrease in meat supply.

Butchers were also asked about the effect of Covid 19 on their supply price. 96.43% and 83.02% butchers reported that Covid the beef supply price and goat supply price respectively. Most of the traders (92.5%) coped up by reducing the quantity of meat bought from the source and the least (2.5%) reported to have done nothing (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Cope up with increase in supply price.

All traders reported Covid to have affected their sales and when asked how they coped with the decrease in sales, most of them (99.17%) reported to have reduced their volume of sales and the least (6.67) reported to have coped in other ways like reducing the selling price of meat and stopping the daily supply (Figure 9).

Figure 9. Cope up with decrease in volume of sales.

Butchers reported to have engaged in other ­activities like farming (43.48%), trading (34.78%), boda-boda (13.04%) on top on the meat business (Figure 10).

Figure 10. Other activities.

5. Discussion

The results show that traders were affected. The quantities for both supply and sales were significantly affected plus the number of employees and customers reduced. Butchers who buy their meat from abattoirs reduced significantly. This is because butchers started sourcing their meat from local supplies. This is because with the Covid 19 restrictions. Moving from one place to another was restricted and the therefore workers were not able to go to their places of work. This agrees with finding by Nuwematsiko et al. (2022) who stated that the closure of public transport except for those offering essential services led to consequences and increased vulnerability among the different groups of people.

The average daily supply of meat (beef and goatmeat) reduced during the lockdown. Butchers attributed this to the restriction on movement which limited cattle movement and to decrease in volume of sales and in the butcher’s income. This is consistent with Ilukor et al. (2022) (Md. Tanvir Rahman et al., 2022) who reported that due to the restriction on movement resulted to reduction in cattle sales, erosion in operating capital, and failure to sell animals while others diversified or moved to other businesses thus leading to decline in cattle sales and consequently beef supply and sales. In addition, a decrease in the meat sales during the lockdown could also be attributed to reduction in number of customers because places like schools, bars, hotels, and recreational sites were closed and yet these are the main consumers of meat (Ndaiye et al. 2022). Also, the closure of businesses led to decrease in the purchasing power of both the poor and the unemployed leading to low demand of certain goods in both rural and urban areas.

After the Covid 19 restriction were lifted, the quantity supplied and sold increased however these haven’t gone back to the way there were before the pandemic. This was because of the increased demand for meat as some institutions like hotels were opened and allowed to operate. In addition, the buying price of meat from the different sources has either remained high or increased during the lockdown and even after the lockdown was lifted which is butchers attribute to the increased costs incurred by the cattle traders while transporting the cattle to the cattle markets (Mercy Corps, 2020). This has reduced consumer purchasing power and its reason why the quantity supplied and sold haven’t gone back to the way there were before the pandemic These suggests that COVID-19 is likely to impact longer-term meat consumption and may affect nutrition.

The correlates for magnitude of effect and recovery of both meat supply and effect show that the two types of meat are not affected by the same variables. According to the effect of meat supply, with increase in the supply of beef there is reduction in supply of goat meat, and this shows that the two commodities are substitutes. This agrees with Chanyalew and Abenet (1997) who state that goat and beef are substitutes. The beef sale recovery leads to an increase in the goat sales recovery and this shows that the two commodities are complements. Customers are significant in both effect and recovery, and this is because the driving factor of the meat business are the customers. A reduction in the customers will negatively affect the business and an increase in the number of customers will lead increase recovery.

To cope up with the effect of the pandemic, butchers adopted various method for example reducing the quantity bought from the source, charging higher prices to customers, using phones to make orders, using boda bodas and engaging in other activities. However, the idea of customer delivery was not higher adopted, and this was because of the technicality involved while using the system and this agrees with (Hashem et al., 2021) who reported that agricultural stakeholders in developing countries have difficulty in use and availability of the agricultural ICTs. The slow adoption of the system associated with fact that some individuals find happiness in physically going to the shops (Freathy & Calderwood, 2014).

6. Summary and conclusion

The findings from the study revealed that butchers were negatively affected with decrease in the quantity of meat bought from the source, increase in the buying prices of meat, decrease in the volume of sales and in the number of customers as the main effects. The findings also show that butchers came up with different mechanisms to cope up with the negative effects of Covid 19. Majority of the butchers reduced the quantity of meat bought, increased the price of meat, adopting the customer delivery method and some butchers decided to engage in other economic activities to increase on their incomes. For the butchers to fully recover from the shock caused by the Covid 19 pandemic and for them not to be very affected in case another pandemic happens. The government should provide a favourable environment for financial institutions to offer loans to the butchers so that they can recovery from the pandemic. Stake holders in the meat business should prioritize the youths. This is because according to the results, adult traders recovered faster than the youth. Further studies need to be done on the role of agricultural ICT on meat marketing to know if this can help farmers in case a shock happens.

Acknowledgement

We would like to acknowledge Makerere University department of agribusiness the Beef Research Platform. The authors would also like to acknowledge the butchers who agreed to spare time to respond to the interviews.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data for this manuscript is availability and it can be provided when requested for.