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Abstract
The Red Sea Forum (RSF), since its foundation in December 2018, has attracted the attention of politicians and scholars near and far. The exclusion of Ethiopia from the forum disappointed the government, though the country is the most populous and anchor state in the Horn of Africa. Many of the objectives set by RSF are apparently unattainable without the direct or indirect participation of Ethiopia. The aim of this study, therefore, is to examine the implications of the Red Sea Forum for the national security of Ethiopia. The study employed a qualitative research method. In doing so, both primary and secondary sources were consulted. Beyond reviewing published and unpublished materials, key informant interviews were conducted with purposively selected experts from the Ethiopian Navy Force, the Maritime Institute of Ethiopia, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study asserted that the Red Sea Region has a complex security terrain where security alignment and realignment with regional and non-regional powers are persistent mechanisms of survival. This is caused by asymmetrical power distribution and security dilemmas among regional states. Among others, neutralising the subversive activities of Egypt, serving as a platform for potential funding and access to energy resources, helping to mitigate the tragic deaths of Ethiopian immigrants crossing the sea, and serving as a source of naval technical know-how and maritime information are some of the potential benefits of being a member of the RSF. Port shutdowns, naval blockades, suffocation of alternative port access, and damage to underwater internet cables in the Red Sea are some of the perceived threats from RSF identified in the study. To enhance the potential benefits and mitigate the perceived threats from RSF, Ethiopia should adopt multilateral diplomacy and military deterrence as a counter strategies.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 J. Jarzabek, ‘Theory of regional security complexes in the Middle Eastern dimension’, Wschodnioznawstwo 12, (2018), available at: https://www.academia.edu/38847275/The_Theory_of_Regional_Security_Complexes_in_the_Middle_Eastern_Dimension.
2 See R. Lipschutz, On Security (New York: Colombia University Press, 1998); B. Buzan, O. Weaver and J. Wildel, Security: A New Frame Work for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998).
3 K. Yandary, ‘Securitization and desecuritization in Indonesia’s democratic transition: a case study of Aceh separatist movement’, The 8th Pan-European Conference on International Relations, Warsaw, (2013).
4 B. Buzan, O. Weaver and J. Wildel, Security: A New Frame Work for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998); J. Jarzabek, ‘Theory of regional security complexes in the Middle Eastern dimension’, Wschodnioznawstwo 12, (2018).
5 Ibid.
6 The agreement contains seven articles dealing with the end of the hostility and opening of new era to harness ‘comprehensive cooperation in the political, security, defense, economic, trade, investment, cultural and social fields on the basis of complementarity and synergy’. For further information see the full text of the agreement in Addis Standard online available at: Full text of the Ethio-Eritrea agreement signed in Jeddah-Addis Standard.
7 M. Nichols, ‘UN Security Council removes Eritrea sanctions after years’, (14 November 2018), available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eritrea-sanctions-un-idUSKCN1NJ28P; R. Bereketeab, ‘The Ethiopia-Eritrea rapprochement’, The Nordic Africa Institute, (2019), available at: https://issuu.com/nordicafricainstitute/docs/ethiopia-eritrea_rapprochement_poli.
8 The council has adopted a charter in which the supreme council is represented by head of states, council of ministers and rotating secretariats designated as important organs of the council.
9 Z. Vertin, ‘Red Sea rivalries: the Gulf, the Horn and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea’, Brookings Doha Center, (3 July 2019), available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Red-Sea-Rivalries.-The-Gulf-The-Horn-and-the-New-Geopolitics-of-the-Red-Sea-English-pdf.pdf.
10 ‘Ethiopia demands admission to Red Sea forum, criticizes its exclusion’, Ethiopian News Agency, (2019), available at: https://www.ena.et/web/eng/w/en_33745.
11 See the theory of ‘Regional security complex’ in the work of, B. Buzan and L. Hansen, The Evolution of International Security Studies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
12 M. Demeke, ‘Calls on international community to give proper recognition to Ethiopia’s inclusive dialogue, (20 February 2022), available at https://www.fanabc.com/english/dpm-demeke-calls-on-international-community-to-give-proper-recognition-to-ethiopias-inclusive-dialogue/.
13 After Sudan’s independence, disagreement over the Triangle’s control arose between Sudan and Egypt. Egypt insisted the border followed the 1899 political boundary, while Sudan held on to the 1902 administrative boundary, leading to both countries claiming sovereignty over the Halayeb Triangle. Consequently, Bir Tawil, previously controlled by Egypt, became a ‘no man’s land’, available at: The Egypt-Sudan Border Dispute-WorldAtlas.
14 ‘What is behind tension between Eritrea and Djibouti?’, BBC News, (21 June 2017).
15 ‘Border disputes on the Arabian Peninsula’, The Washington Institute, (15 March 2001).
16 B. Buzan and O. Waever, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
17 W. Grabowski, ‘Application of the regional security complex theory for security analysis in the Persian Gulf’, Athenaeum Polskie Studia Politologiczne 68(4), 2020, pp. 18–31.
18 J. Hoynes, Religion in the Third World Politics: Issues in Third World Politics (Philadelphia and Backingham: Open University Press, 1993).
19 W. Grabowski, ‘Application of the regional security complex theory for security analysis in the Persian Gulf’, Athenaeum Polskie Studia Politologiczne 68(4), 2020, pp. 18–31.
20 B. Mesfin, ‘The Horn of Africa security complex’, Institute for Security Studies, (2013), available at: https://www.scribd.com/document/243819355/The-Horn-of-Africa-Security-Complex.
21 S. Deresso, ‘East Africa and the intergovernmental authority on development: mapping multilateralism in transition NO.4’, International Peace Institute, (2014), available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep09482?seq=4.
22 K. Jacobsen and J. Nordby, ‘Danish interests in regional security institutions in East Africa’, Danish Institute for International Studies Report 14, (2013).
23 J. Kechichan, ‘The Gulf cooperation council: search for security’, Third World Quarterly 7(4), (2007), pp. 853–881; D. Priess, ‘Balance-of-threat theory and the genesis of the gulf cooperation council: an interpretative case study’, Security Studies 5(4), (2007), pp. 143–171.
24 A. Pasha, ‘The Gulf Cooperation Council: a regional approach to peace, security and development’, Journal of the Indian Ocean Region 8(1), (2012), pp. 90–98.
25 E. Hellquist and S. Neuman, ‘Managing security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: the Red Sea Council and the prospect of multilateralism’, (20 April 2023), available at: https://www.foi.se/rapportsammanfattning?reportNo=FOI%20Memo%208112.
26 Ibid.
27 F. Dazi-hén and S. Gouriellec, ‘The Red Sea: new spaces of interdependent security issues between countries of the Gulf and of the Horn of Africa’, IRSEM, available at: https://www.irsem.fr/media/5-publications/notes-de-recherche-research-papers/rp-irsem-75.pdf.
28 S. Ramani, ‘Russia’s growing ambitions in the Red Sea region: a policy brief’, Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, (September 2021).
29 A. Sayid and D. Mahmud, ‘The Red Sea region security: different visions’, Journal of Faculty of Politics and Economics 13(12), (2021), p. 18.
30 ‘The United States army in Somalia, 1992–1994’, US Army Center of Military History, (9 December 2002).
31 Z. Vertin, ‘Red Sea rivalries: the Gulf, the Horn and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea’, Brookings Doha Center, (26 June 2019), available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Red-Sea-Rivalries.-The-Gulf-The-Horn-and-the-New-Geopolitics-of-the-Red-Sea-English-pdf.pdf.
32 A. Sayid and D. Mahmud, ‘The Red Sea region security: different visions’, Journal of Faculty of Politics and Economics 13(12), (2021), p. 18.
33 Ibid.
34 Ibid.
35 J. Jarzabek, ‘Theory of regional security complexes in the Middle Eastern dimension’, Wschodnioznawstwo 12, (2018).
36 R. Lipschutz, On Security (New York: Colombia University Press, 1998), p. 1; B. Buzan, O. Weaver and J. Wildel, Security: A New Frame Work for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998).
37 K. Yandary, ‘Securitization and desecuritization in Indonesia’s democratic transition: a case study of Aceh separatist movement’, Paper presented at the 8th Pan-European Conference on International Relations, Warsaw, (2013).
38 B. Buzan, O. Weaver and J. Wildel, Security: A New Frame Work for Analysis (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998); J. Jarzabek, ‘Theory of regional security complexes in the Middle Eastern dimension’, Wschodnioznawstwo 12, (2018).
39 Ibid.
40 Interview with Ethiopia Navy officer, (23 April 2023).
41 ‘The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia-Posts’, (21 October 2021), available at: https://www.facebook.com/MFAEthiopia/posts/4949720968388440.
42 ‘Pirate trails: tracking the illicit financial flows from piracy off the Horn of Africa’, World Bank, (2020), available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialsector/publication/pirate-trails-tracking-the-illicitfinancial-flows-from-piracy-off-the-horn-of-africa.
43 T. Oladipo, ‘Is Africa facing a new wave of piracy?’, (15 May 2017), available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39849352.
44 Z. Vertin, ‘Red Sea rivalries: the Gulf, the Horn and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea’, Brookings Doha Center, (26 June 2019).
45 M. Demeke, ‘Calls on international community to give proper recognition to Ethiopia’s inclusive dialogue, (20 February 2022).
46 Interview with Ethiopia Navy officer, (23 April 2023).
47 E. Hellquist and S. Neuman, ‘Managing security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: the Red Sea Council and the prospect of multilateralism’, (20 April 2023).
48 ‘Egypt’s Sisi warns Ethiopia dam risks ‘unimaginable instability’’, AFP, (30 March 2021).
49 ‘Arab FMs place GERD as permanent topic on Arab League Council agenda: Shoukry’, Ahram Online, (8 March 2023).
50 E. Hellquist and S. Neuman, ‘Managing security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: the Red Sea Council and the prospect of multilateralism’, (20 April 2023).
51 Z. Vertin, ‘Red Sea rivalries: the Gulf, the Horn and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea’, Brookings Doha Center, (26 June 2019); E. Hellquist and S. Neuman, ‘Managing security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: the Red Sea Council and the prospect of multilateralism’, (20 April 2023); W. Grabowski, ‘Application of the regional security complex theory for security analysis in the Persian Gulf’, Athenaeum Polskie Studia Politologiczne 68(4), 2020.
52 A. Rezeg, ‘6-nation ‘Red Wave’ naval drills begin in Saudi waters’, Anadolu Agency, (1 January 2019), https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/6-nation-red-wave-naval-drills-begin-in-saudi-waters/1353545.
53 A. Rezeg, ‘6-nation ‘Red Wave’ naval drills begin in Saudi waters’, Anadolu Agency, (1 January 2019).
54 ‘Ethiopia demands admission to Red Sea forum, criticizes its exclusion’, Ethiopian News Agency, (2019), available at: https://www.ena.et/web/eng/w/en_33745.
55 Ibid.
56 Interview with an expert from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (2 January 2023).
57 Interview with an expert from Ethiopian Naval Power, (18 January 2023).
58 ‘Ethiopia, migration profile, study on migration routes in East and Horn of Africa’, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, (2017), https://migration.unu.edu/publications/reports/ethiopia-migration-profile-study-on-migration-routes-in-the-east-and-horn-of-africa.html.
59 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (2021).
60 Interview with an expert from Ethiopian Maritime Institute, (24 January 2023).
61 J. Gengler, ‘Society and state in post-blockade Qatar: lessons for the Arab Gulf region’, Journal of Arabian Studies 10(2), (2020), pp. 238–255.
62 ‘Ethiopia loses its 19pc stake in Berbera port: Somaliland minister’, The East Africa, (11 June 2022).
63 ‘Navies to guard undersea cable from Somali pirates’, Reuters, (17 April 2009).
64 ‘Ethiopia to increase internet gate way capacity’, Ezaga, (23 January 2019).
65 Interview with naval expert, (20 April 2023).