Bibliography
- Bowden, M. The Finish: The Killing of Osama Bin Laden. New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2012.
- Bush, G. W. Decision Points. New York: Crown Publishers, 2010.
- CNN. “The Axe Files.” In Podcast Ep. War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International PoliticsVol. 247. Friedman, Jeffrey A., eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2019, (31 May 2018).
- Director of Central Intelligence. “Assessed Manpower of Warsaw Pact Forces in the NATO Guidelines Area, 1985.” NI IIM 86-10005. Declassified from SECRET. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP90R00038R000200210001-0.pdf
- Director of National Intelligence. Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203, Analytic Standards. 2 January 2015. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICD/ICD%20203%20Analytic%20Standards.pdf
- Farnsworth, W. The Legal Analyst: A Toolkit for Thinking About the Law. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2007.
- Fish, S. “Legal Arguments: What You Can and Cannot Say in Court.” In Chapter 4 in Winning Arguments: What Works and Doesn’t Work in Politics, the Bedroom, the Courtroom, and the Classroom, 129–157. New York: HarperCollins, 2016.
- Friedman, J. A., and R. Zeckhauser. “Analytic Confidence and Political Decision-Making: Theoretical Principles and Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals.” Political Psychology 39, no. 5 (2018): 1069–1087. doi:10.1111/pops.12465.
- Gates, R. Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War. New York: Knopf, 2014.
- Harris, A. “Justice Jackson’s Crucial Argument About Affirmative Action.” The Atlantic, 1 November 2022. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/11/affirmative-action-supreme-court-ketanji-brown-jackson/671954/
- Hayden, M. V. Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror. New York: Penguin Books, 2017.
- Horowitz, M. C., J. Ciocca, L. Kahn, and C. Ruhl, Keeping Score: A New Approach to Geopolitical Forecasting. Perry World House White Paper. February 2021. https://global.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/perry-world-house/Keeping%20Score%20Forecasting%20White%20Paper.pdf
- Intelligence Analysis of the Long Range Missile Threat to the U.S. Hearing Before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. 104th Congress, Second Session. December 4, 1996. https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/intelligenceanaly00unit.pdf
- Irwin, D., and D. R. Mandel. “How Intelligence Organizations Communicate Confidence (Unclearly).” DRDC – Toronto Research Centre. December 2018. https://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc381/p814126_A1b.pdf
- Levine, R. “Principles of Intelligence Analysis.” Studies in Intelligence 65, no. December 2021: 1–7. https://www.cia.gov/static/Article-Principles-of-Intelligence-Analysis-Studies65-4-Dec2021.pdf.
- McHenry, J. “Three IARPA Forecasting Efforts: ICPM, HFC, and the Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge.” Booz Allen Hamilton, on Behalf of IARPA. 26 January 2018. https://www.ffcoi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Three-IARPA-Forecasting-Efforts-ICPM-HFC-and-the-Geopolitical-Forescasting-Challenge_Jan-2018.pdf
- Memorandum for National Intelligence Board Principals. 8 November 1984. Declassified from SECRET. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP86M00886R000200150019-7.pdf
- Memorandum from Lawrence K. Gershwin, NIO for Strategic Programs, to Staff Director, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. 26 August 1986. Declassified from TOP SECRET. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP90B01390R000600680007-3.pdf
- Mui, C. “Gut Check: Would You Bet on It?” Forbes. December 20, 2015. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2015/12/20/gut-check/?sh=793aaaf5b75e
- National Intelligence Council. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. National Intelligence Estimate. November 2007. Unclassified. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/20071203_release.pdf
- National Intelligence Council. Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins. Undated but information through August 2021. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
- National Intelligence Council. Updated Assessment of Anomalous Health Incidents. ICA 2023-02286-B. 1 March2023. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Updated_Assessment_of_Anomalous_Health_Incidents.pdf
- “Retired Admiral Bill McRaven and Michael Morell on the Raid on Osama Bin Laden’s Compound.” Intelligence Matters DECLASSIFIED: Spy Stories from the Officers Who Were There. CBS News. September 16, 2020. https://newstalk941.com/bill-mcraven-and-michael-morell-the-raid-on-bin-ladens-compound/
- Schauer, F. Thinking Like a Lawyer. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009.
- Schauer, F. The Proof: Uses of Evidence in Law, Politics, and Everything Else. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2022.
- Shaw, G., R. Brown, and P. Bromley. “Strategic Stories: How 3M is Rewriting Business Planning.” Harvard Business Review (May–June 1998). https://hbr.org/1998/05/strategic-stories-how-3m-is-rewriting-business-planning
- Weinstein, J. B., and I. Dewsbury. “Comment on the Meaning of ‘Proof Beyond a Reasonable doubt.’.” Law, Probability and Risk 5, no. 2, June (2006): 167–173. doi:10.1093/lpr/mgl016.