167
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

How is counterfactual thinking integrated in organizational risk and resilience practices?

, , &
Pages 63-84 | Received 06 Feb 2023, Accepted 01 Dec 2023, Published online: 11 Jan 2024

References

  • Aase, K., and G. Nybo. 2005. “Organisational Knowledge in High-Risk Industries: Supplementing Model-Based Learning Approaches.” International Journal of Learning and Intellectual Capital 2 (1): 49–65. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJLIC.2005.006805
  • Aldrich, D. P., and M. A. Meyer. 2015. “Social Capital and Community Resilience.” American Behavioral Scientist 59 (2): 254–269. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764214550299
  • Alix, M., S. Venkat, Z. Mogul, S. Leung, M. A. Banks, and J. Saary-Littman. 2015. “Risk Appetite Frameworks: Insights into Evolving Global Practices.” Global Credit Review 5 (1): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010493615500014
  • Anderson, C. 2010. “Presenting and Evaluating Qualitative Research.” American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education, 74 (8): 141. https://doi.org/10.5688/aj7408141
  • Aven, T. 2015. “Implications of Black Swans to the Foundations and Practice of Risk Assessment and Management.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 134: 83–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.004
  • Behera, J. K. 2021. “Role of Social Capital in Disaster Risk Management: A Theoretical Review.” Int. J. Manag.(IJM) 12: 221–233.
  • Bernstein, R. S., M. Bulger, P. Salipante, and J. Y. Weisinger. 2020. “From Diversity to Inclusion to Equity: A Theory of Generative Interactions.” Journal of Business Ethics 167 (3): 395–410. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-019-04180-1
  • Coleman, J. S. 1988. “Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital.” American Journal of Sociology 94: S95–S120. https://doi.org/10.1086/228943
  • Cutter, S. L., C. G. Burton, and C. T. Emrich. 2010. “Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 7 (1): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1732
  • de Ruijter, A., and F. Guldenmund. 2016. “The Bowtie Method: A Review.” Safety Science 88: 211–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2016.03.001
  • Dionne, G. 2013. “Risk Management: History, Definition, and Critique: Risk Management.” Risk Management and Insurance Review 16 (2): 147–166. https://doi.org/10.1111/rmir.12016
  • Duijm, N. J. 2015. “Recommendations on the Use and Design of Risk Matrices.” Safety Science 76: 21–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.014
  • Epstude, K., and N. J. Roese. 2008. “The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking.” Personality and Social Psychology Review: An Official Journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc 12 (2): 168–192. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868308316091
  • Fereday, J., and E. Muir-Cochrane. 2006. “Demonstrating Rigor Using Thematic Analysis: A Hybrid Approach of Inductive and Deductive Coding and Theme Development.” International Journal of Qualitative Methods 5 (1): 80–92. https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690600500107
  • Fiedler, T., A. J. Pitman, K. Mackenzie, N. Wood, C. Jakob, and S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick. 2021. “Business Risk and the Emergence of Climate Analytics.” Nature Climate Change 11 (2): 87–94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00984-6
  • Fox, C. 2018. “Understanding the New ISO and COSO Updates.” Risk Management 65 (6): 4–7.
  • Garnett, K., F. A. Lickorish, S. A. Rocks, G. Prpich, A. A. Rathe, and S. J. T. Pollard. 2016. “Integrating Horizon Scanning and Strategic Risk Prioritisation Using a Weight of Evidence Framework to Inform Policy Decisions.” The Science of the Total Environment 560–561: 82–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.040
  • Gjerdrum, D., and M. Peter. 2010. “The New International Standard on the Practice of Risk Management – A Comparison of ISO 31000:2009 and the COSO ERM Framework.” Risk Analysis 30 (6): 887.
  • Haltiwanger, G., R. E. Landaeta, C. A. Pinto, and A. Tolk. 2010. “Understanding the Relationship between Risk Management and Knowledge Management: A Literature Review and Extension.” International Journal of Knowledge Management Studies 4 (3): 281. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJKMS.2010.038170
  • Harries, T. 2008. “Feeling Secure or Being Secure? Why It Can Seem Better Not to Protect Yourself against a Natural Hazard.” Health, Risk & Society 10 (5): 479–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698570802381162
  • Haywood, L. K., G. G. Forsyth, W. J. de Lange, and D. H. Trotter. 2017. “Contextualising Risk within Enterprise Risk Management through the Application of Systems Thinking.” Environment Systems and Decisions 37 (2): 230–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-017-9627-8
  • Hermansson, H. 2010. “Towards a Fair Procedure for Risk Management.” Journal of Risk Research 13 (4): 501–515. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870903305903
  • ISO. 2018. ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management—Guidelines. Geneva, Switzerland: The International Organization for Standardization.
  • Jia, X., M. Chowdhury, G. Prayag, and M. M. H. Chowdhury. 2020. “The Role of Social Capital on Proactive and Reactive Resilience of Organizations Post-Disaster.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 48: 101614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101614
  • Kaplan, R. S., H. B. Leonard, and A. Mikes. 2020. Novel Risks. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School.
  • Klein, G. 2008. “Performing a Project Premortem.” IEEE Engineering Management Review 36 (2): 103–104. https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2008.4534313
  • Lallemant, D., M. Rabonza, Y. C. Lin, S. Tadepalli, D. Wagenaar, M. Nguyen, J. Choong, et al. 2022. Shedding Light on Avoided Disasters: Measuring the Invisible Benefits of Disaster Risk Management Using Probabilistic Counterfactual Analysis. Geneva, Switzerland: Global Assessment Report Contributing Paper. United Nations. https://www.undrr.org/publication/shedding-light-avoided-disasters-measuring-invisible-benefits-disaster-risk-reduction.
  • Lee, H. 2021. “COSO ERM Framework.” In Risk Management, 35–50. Singapore: Springer.
  • Lin, Y. C., S. F. Jenkins, J. R. Chow, S. Biass, G. Woo, and D. Lallemant. 2020. “Modeling Downward Counterfactual Events: Unrealized Disasters and Why They Matter.” Frontiers in Earth Science 8: 575048. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.575048
  • Lin, Y. C., G. Mestav Sarica, T. J. Chua, S. F. Jenkins, A. D. Switzer, G. Woo, and D. Lallemant. 2021. “Asia’s Looming Black Elephant Events.” Communications Earth & Environment 2 (1): 214. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00283-8
  • Lin, Y. C., G. Mestav Sarica, T. J. Chua, A. B. Stone, S. F. Jenkins, A. D. Switzer, G. Woo, and D. Lallemant. 2022. “Characterizing Drivers of Asia’s Black Elephant Disaster Risks.” Earth’s Future 10 (12): e2021EF002607. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002607
  • Lin, Y. C. 2019. “Counterfactual Toolkit.” https://www.yolandaclin.com/projects/counterfactuals
  • Mavrodieva, A. V., R. I. F. Daramita, A. Y. Arsono, L. Yawen, and R. Shaw. 2019. “Role of Civil Society in Sustainable Urban Renewal (Machizukuri) after the Kobe Earthquake.” Sustainability 11 (2): 335. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020335
  • Meyer, R., and H. Kunreuther. 2017. The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Underprepare for Disasters. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.
  • Mietzner, D., and G. Reger. 2005. “Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight.” International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 1 (2): 220. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTIP.2005.006516
  • Morieux, Y., M. Blaxill, and V. Boutenko. 2005. “Generative Interactions: The New Source of Competitive Advantage.” In edited by Karen O. Cool, James E. Henderson, Rene Abate, 86–110. Restructuring Strategy: New Networks and Industry Challenges, Malden, MA: Blackwell publishing.
  • Morris, M. W., and P. C. Moore. 2000. “The Lessons We (Don’t) Learn: Counterfactual Thinking and Organizational Accountability after a Close Call.” Administrative Science Quarterly 45 (4): 737–765. https://doi.org/10.2307/2667018
  • Panday, S., S. Rushton, J. Karki, J. Balen, and A. Barnes. 2021. “The Role of Social Capital in Disaster Resilience in Remote Communities after the 2015 Nepal Earthquake.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 55: 102112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102112
  • Patterson, F. D., and K. Neailey. 2002. “A Risk Register Database System to Aid the Management of Project Risk.” International Journal of Project Management 20 (5): 365–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00040-0
  • Power, M. 2009. “The Risk Management of Nothing.” Accounting, Organizations and Society 34 (6-7): 849–855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aos.2009.06.001
  • Rabonza, M. L., Y. C. Lin, and D. Lallemant. 2022. “Learning from Success, Not Catastrophe: Using Counterfactual Analysis to Highlight Successful Disaster Risk Reduction Interventions.” Frontiers in Earth Science 10: 847196. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.847196
  • Roese, N. J. 1994. “The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66 (5): 805–818. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.66.5.805
  • Roese, N. J. 1997. “Counterfactual Thinking.” Psychological Bulletin 121 (1): 133–148. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133
  • Roese, N. J., T. Hur, and G. L. Pennington. 1999. “Counterfactual Thinking and Regulatory Focus: Implications for Action versus Inaction and Sufficiency versus Necessity.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (6): 1109–1120. https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.77.6.1109
  • Saad, Z. M., S. Sudin, and N. Shamsuddin. 2018. “The Influence of Leadership Style, Personality Attributes and Employee Communication on Employee Engagement.” Global Business and Management Research 10 (3): 743.
  • Saipol, B. A.-K., J. L. David, A.-R. Hamzah, W. Chen, A. Y. Imran, and Q. S. Geoffrey. 2011. “Integrating Risk and Value Management Using IRVM Workshops: Case Studies in Infrastructure Projects in UK.” Scientific Research and Essays 6 (12): 2470–2479.
  • Summerill, C., S. J. Pollard, and J. A. Smith. 2010. “The Role of Organizational Culture and Leadership in Water Safety Plan Implementation for Improved Risk Management.” The Science of the Total Environment 408 (20): 4319–4327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.06.043
  • Swain, D. L., D. Singh, D. Touma, and N. S. Diffenbaugh. 2020. “Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World.” One Earth 2 (6): 522–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.011
  • Sy, T., S. Côté, and R. Saavedra. 2005. “The Contagious Leader: Impact of the Leader’s Mood on the Mood of Group Members, Group Affective Tone, and Group Processes.” The Journal of Applied Psychology 90 (2): 295–305. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.90.2.295
  • Taleb, N. N. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Vol. 2. New York: Random House.
  • Thistlethwaite, J., and M. O. Wood. 2018. “Insurance and Climate Change Risk Management: Rescaling to Look beyond the Horizon: Insurance and Climate Change Risk Management.” British Journal of Management 29 (2): 279–298. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12302
  • Tinsley, C. H., R. L. Dillon, and M. A. Cronin. 2012. “How near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making.” Management Science 58 (9): 1596–1613. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1517
  • Tranchard, S. 2018. “Risk Management: The New ISO 31000 Keeps Risk Management Simple.” Governance Directions 70 (4): 180–182.
  • UNDRR. 2015. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. Geneva, Switzerland: UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
  • Voicu, I., F. V. Panaitescu, M. Panaitescu, L. G. Dumitrescu, and M. Turof. 2018. “Risk Management with Bowtie Diagrams.” IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 400: 082021. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/400/8/082021
  • Woo, G. 2019. “Downward Counterfactual Search for Extreme Events.” Frontiers in Earth Science 7: 340. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00340
  • Yaraghi, N., and R. G. Langhe. 2011. “Critical success factors for risk management systems”. Journal of Risk Research 14 (5): 551–581.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.