928
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Simulating urban growth by coupling macro-processes and micro-dynamics: a case study on Wuhan, China

ORCID Icon, , , &
Article: 2264582 | Received 17 Jul 2023, Accepted 25 Sep 2023, Published online: 05 Oct 2023

References

  • Abaya Gomez, J. E. J. 2015. “The Size of Cities: A Synthesis of Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives on the Global Megalopolis.” Progress in Planning 116 (8): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2016.03.001.
  • Angel, S., S. Arango Franco, Y. Liu, and A. M. Blei. 2020. “The Shape Compactness of Urban Footprints.” Progress in Planning 139:100429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2018.12.001.
  • Artime, O., and M. Domenico. 2022. “From the Origin of Life to Pandemics: Emergent Phenomena in Complex Systems.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 380 (2227): 20200410. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0410.
  • Barnett, L., and A. Seth. 2023. “Dynamical Independence: Discovering Emergent Macroscopic Processes in Complex Dynamical Systems.” Physical Review E 108 (1): 014304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.108.014304.
  • Batty, M., and K. Sik Kim. 1992. “Form Follows Function: Reformulating Urban Population Density Functions.” Urban Studies 29 (7): 1043–1069. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420989220081041.
  • Bednar-Friedl, B., O. Koland, and K. W. Steininger. 2011. “Urban Sprawl and Policy Responses: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Residential Choice.” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 54 (5): 145–168. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2010.502766.
  • Chen, Y., and M. Feng. 2022. “Urban Form Simulation in 3D Based on Cellular Automata and Building Objects Generation.” Building and Environment 226:109727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109727.
  • Chen, G., X. Li, X. Liu, Y. Chen, X. Liang, J. Leng, and K. Huang. 2020. “Global Projections of Future Urban Land Expansion Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.” Nature Communications 11 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x.
  • Chen, Z., B. Yu, W. Song, H. Liu, Q. Wu, K. Shi, and J. Wu. 2017. “A New Approach for Detecting Urban Centers and Their Spatial Structure with Nighttime Light Remote Sensing.” IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 55 (11): 6305–6319. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2017.2725917.
  • Chung, M. G., K. A. Frank, and Y. Pokhrel. 2021. “Natural Infrastructure in Sustaining Global Urban Freshwater Ecosystem Services.” Nature Sustainability 4 (12): 1068–1075. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00786-4.
  • Clark, C. 1951. “Urban Population Densities.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 114 (4): 490. https://doi.org/10.2307/2981088.
  • Dong, T., L. Jiao, G. Xu, L. Yang, and J. Liu. 2019. “Towards Sustainability? Analyzing Changing Urban Form Patterns in the United States, Europe, and China.” The Science of the Total Environment 671:632–643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.269.
  • Feng, Y., Z. Lei, X. Tong, C. Gao, and S. Wang. 2020. “Spatially-Explicit Modeling and Intensity Analysis of China’s Land Use Change 2000–2050.” Journal of Environmental Management 263:110407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110407.
  • Feng, Y., Y. Liu, X. Tong, M. Liu, and S. Deng. 2011. “Modeling Dynamic Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata and Particle Swarm Optimization Rules.” Landscape & Urban Planning 102 (3): 188–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.04.004.
  • Glaeser, E. L. 2007. The Economics Approach to Cities. Nber Working Papers.
  • Glaeser, E. L., and M. E. Kahn. 2003. “Sprawl and Urban Growth.” SSRN Electronic Journal. 4:2481–2527.http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.405962
  • Gong, J. Z., Y. S. Liu, B. C. Xia, and G. W. Zhao. 2009. “Urban Ecological Security Assessment and Forecasting Based on a Cellular Automata Model: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China.” Ecological Modelling 220 (24): 3612–3620. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.018.
  • Hidalgo, D., and L. Gutiérrez. 2013. “BRT and BHLS Around the World: Explosive Growth, Large Positive Impacts and Many Issues Outstanding.” Research in Transportation Economics 39 (1): 8–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.018.
  • Hsu, C., and C. Y. Chen. 2003. “Applications of Improved Grey Prediction Model for Power Demand Forecasting.” Energy Conversion and Management 44 (14): 2241–2249. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0.
  • Isinkaralar, O., and C. Varol. 2023. “A Cellular Automata-Based Approach for Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the City Center as a Complex System: The Case of Kastamonu, Türkiye.” Cities 132:104073. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.104073.
  • Isinkaralar, O., C. Varol, and D. Yilmaz. 2022. “Digital Mapping and Predicting the Urban Growth: Integrating Scenarios into Cellular Automata—Markov Chain Modeling.” Applied Geomatics 14 (4): 695–705. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-022-00464-w.
  • Jaeger, J. A. G., and C. Schwick. 2014. “Improving the Measurement of Urban Sprawl: Weighted Urban Proliferation (WUP) and Its Application to Switzerland.” Ecological Indicators 38 (March): 294–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.11.022.
  • Jiao, L. 2015. “Urban Land Density Function: A New Method to Characterize Urban Expansion.” Landscape and Urban Planning 139:26–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.02.017.
  • Jiao, L., T. Dong, G. Xu, Z. Zhou, J. Liu, and Y. Liu. 2021. “Geographic Micro-Process Model: Understanding Global Urban Expansion from a Process-Oriented View.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 87:101603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101603.
  • Jiao, L., J. Liu, G. Xu, T. Dong, Y. Gu, B. Zhang, Y. Liu, and X. Liu. 2018. “Proximity Expansion Index: An Improved Approach to Characterize Evolution Process of Urban Expansion.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 70 (July): 102–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.02.005.
  • Jie, Y., and H. Xin. 2021. “The 30 m Annual Land Cover Dataset and Its Dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019.” Earth System Science Data 13 (8). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3907-2021.
  • Kayacan, E., B. Ulutas, and O. Kaynak. 2010. “Grey System Theory-Based Models in Time Series Prediction.” Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2): 1784–1789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.07.064.
  • Kropf, K. 2018. The Handbook of Urban Morphology. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Lei, W., L. Jiao, Z. Xu, Z. Zhou, and G. Xu. 2021. “Scaling of Urban Economic Outputs: Insights Both from Urban Population Size and Population Mobility.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 88 (1): 101657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101657.
  • Liang, X., Q. Guan, K. C. Clarke, G. Chen, S. Guo, and Y. Yao. 2020. “Mixed-Cell Cellular Automata: A New Approach for Simulating the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Mixed Land Use Structures.” Landscape and Urban Planning 205:103960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103960.
  • Liang, X., Q. Guan, K. C. Clarke, S. Liu, B. Wang, and Y. Yao. 2021. “Understanding the Drivers of Sustainable Land Expansion Using a Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (Plus) Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 85:101569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569.
  • Liang, X., H. Tian, X. Li, J. L. Huang, and G. Hu. 2021. “Modeling the Dynamics and Walking Accessibility of Urban Open Spaces Under Various Policy Scenarios.” Landscape and Urban Planning 207:103993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103993.
  • Li, B., D. Chen, S. Wu, S. Zhou, T. Wang, and H. Chen. 2016. “Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Urbanization Impacts on Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Nanjing City, China.” Ecological Indicators 71 (December): 416–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.07.017.
  • Li, R., L. Dong, J. Zhang, X. Wang, W. X. Wang, Z. Di, and H. E. Stanley. 2017. “Simple Spatial Scaling Rules Behind Complex Cities.” Nature Communications 8 (1): 1841. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01882-w.
  • Li, X., J. Fu, D. Jiang, G. Lin, and C. Cao. 2022. “Land Use Optimization in Ningbo City with a Coupled GA and PLUS Model.” Journal of Cleaner Production 375:134004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134004.
  • Lin, J., X. Li, Y. Wen, and P. He. 2023. “Modeling Urban Land-Use Changes Using a Landscape-Driven Patch-Based Cellular Automaton (LP-CA).” Cities 132:103906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103906.
  • Li, Y., S. Schubert, J. P. Kropp, and D. Rybski. 2020. “On the Influence of Density and Morphology on the Urban Heat Island Intensity.” Nature Communications 11 (1): 2647. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16461-9.
  • Liu, J., L. Jiao, B. Zhang, G. Xu, and Z. Zhou. 2021. “New Indices to Capture the Evolution Characteristics of Urban Expansion Structure and Form.” Ecological Indicators 122 (4): 107302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107302.
  • Liu, X., X. Liang, X. Li, X. Xu, and S. Wang. 2017. “A Future Land Use Simulation Model (Flus) for Simulating Multiple Land Use Scenarios by Coupling Human and Natural Effects.” Landscape & Urban Planning 168:94–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019.
  • Liu, C., Y. Yang, B. Chen, T. Cui, F. Shang, J. Fan, Li, R. 2022. “Revealing Spatio-Temporal Interaction Patterns Behind Complex Cities.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32 (8): 081105. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0098132.
  • Li, X., and A. G. Yeh. 2020. “Cellular Automata Modelling for Urban Planning in Fast-Growth Regions”. In Handbook of Planning Support Science, Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788971089.00037.
  • Mahtta, R., M. Fragkias, B. Güneralp, A. Mahendra, M. Reba, E. A. Wentz, K. C. Seto, et al. 2022. “Urban Land Expansion: The Role of Population and Economic Growth for 300+ Cities.” Npj Urban Sustainability 2 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00048-y.
  • National Bureau of Statistics of China. 2021a. China City Statistics Yearbook. China Statistics Press. Accessed October 2, 2023.http://www.stats.gov.cn/zs/tjwh/tjkw/tjzl/202302/t20230220_1913734.html.
  • National Bureau of Statistics of China. 2021b. China statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press. Accessed October 2, 2023. https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexch.html
  • Pontius, R. G., W. Boersma, J. C. Castella, K. Clarke, T. de Nijs, C. Dietzel, Z. Duan, et al. 2008. “Comparing the Input, Output, and Validation Maps for Several Models of Land Change.” The Annals of Regional Science 42 (1): 11–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2.
  • Pontius, R. G., and M. Millones. 2011. “Death to Kappa: Birth of Quantity Disagreement and Allocation Disagreement for Accuracy Assessment.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 32 (15): 4407–4429. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.552923.
  • Sante, I., A. M. Garcia, D. Miranda, Crecente R. 2010. “Cellular Automata Models for the Simulation of Real-World Urban Processes: A Review and Analysis Rid D-4074-2011.” Sensing 32 (15): 4407–4429.
  • Stevens, D., S. Dragicevic, and K. Rothley. 2007. “A GIS-CA Modelling Tool for Urban Planning and Decision Making.” Environmental Modelling & Software 22 (6): 761–773. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.02.004.
  • Tobler, W. R. 1970. “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region.” Economic Geography 46 (2): 234. https://doi.org/10.2307/143141.
  • Wang, X. 2022. :Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020.” Land, 11 (5): 684.
  • Wang, W., L. Jiao, T. Dong, Z. Xu, and G. Xu. 2019. “Simulating Urban Dynamics by Coupling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Strategies.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 33 (11): 2259–2283. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2019.1647540.
  • Wang, W., L. Jiao, Q. Zhang, W. Jia, and S. Ma. 2020. “Delineating Urban Growth Boundaries Under Multi-Objective and Constraints.” Sustainable Cities and Society 61:102279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102279.
  • White, R., and G. Engelen. 1993. “Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modeling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns.” Environment and Planning A 25 (8): 1175–1199. https://doi.org/10.1068/a251175.
  • White, R., and G. Engelen. 2000. “High-Resolution Integrated Modelling of the Spatial Dynamics of Urban and Regional Systems.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 24 (5): 383–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0198-9715(00)00012-0.
  • Wu, F. 2002. “Calibration of Stochastic Cellular Automata: The Application to Rural-Urban Land Conversions.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 16 (8): 795–818. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810210157769.
  • Xu, W., H. Chen, E. Frias-Martinez, M. Cebrian, and X. Li. 2019. “The Inverted U-Shaped Effect of Urban Hotspots Spatial Compactness on Urban Economic Growth.” Royal Society Open Science 6 (11): 181640. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.181640.
  • Xu, G., L. Jiao, J. Liu, Z. Shi, C. Zeng, and Y. Liu. 2019. “Understanding Urban Expansion Combining Macro Patterns and Micro Dynamics in Three Southeast Asian Megacities.” Science of the Total Environment 660 (April): 375–383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.039.
  • Xu, Y., L. E. Olmos, S. Abbar, and M. C. Gonzalez. 2020. “Deconstructing Laws of Accessibility and Facility Distribution in Cities.” Science Advances 6 (37). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb4112.
  • Xu, Y., M. Price, B. Yang, K. Zhang, N. Yang, X. Tang, J. Ran, Y. Yi, and B. Wang. 2022. “Have China’s National Forest Reserves Designated Since 1990 Conserved Forests Effectively?” Journal of Environmental Management 306:114485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114485.
  • Yang, J., J. Li, F. Xu, S. Li, M. Zheng, and J. Gong. 2022. “Urban Development Wave: Understanding Physical Spatial Processes of Urban Expansion from Density Gradient of New Urban Land.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 97:101867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2022.101867.
  • Yang, J., W. Tang, J. Gong, R. Shi, M. Zheng, and Y. Dai. 2023. “Simulating Urban Expansion Using Cellular Automata Model with Spatiotemporally Explicit Representation of Urban Demand.” Landscape and Urban Planning 231:104640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104640.
  • Ye, H., X. Y. He, Y. Song, X. Li, G. Zhang, T. Lin, and L. Xiao. 2015. “A Sustainable Urban Form: The Challenges of Compactness from the Viewpoint of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission.” Energy & Buildings 93 (Apr.): 90–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.02.011.
  • Zhang, P., D. Ghosh, and S. Park. 2023. “Spatial Measures and Methods in Sustainable Urban Morphology: A Systematic Review.” Landscape and Urban Planning 237:104776. ISSN 0169-2046.
  • Zhang, J., and Y. Wang. 2006. “A Pixel‐Based Method to Estimate Urban Compactness and Its Preliminary Application.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 27 (24): 5435–5442. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600983638.