Preserving the nuclear test ban after Russia revoked its CTBT ratification

ABSTRACT

Russia’s withdrawal of its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 raised concerns about the possible end of the existing moratorium on nuclear explosions. But the moratorium continues to hold, largely thanks to the de facto norm against full-scale nuclear tests and the strength of institutional structures created by the treaty. Transparency of nuclear experiments demonstrated by the United States will be an important factor in upholding the moratorium, and Russia and China should be encouraged to be more transparent about their activities as well. Any disputes about the exact nature of their experiments and their adherence to the strict definition of a zero-yield nuclear explosion should not become reasons to question the value of the moratorium—or the ability of parties to verify and enforce the test ban once the treaty comes into force.

KEYWORDS:

• CTBT
• Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
• Russia
• nuclear weapon tests
• nuclear experiments

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Additional information

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes on contributors

Pavel Podvig

Pavel Podvig is an independent analyst based in Geneva, where he runs his research project, Russian Nuclear Forces. He is also a Senior Researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research and a researcher with the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University.