New confidence-building measures can reduce tensions around subcritical tests

ABSTRACT

With rising tensions between the United States on one side, and China and Russia on the other, the three countries have grown mutually accusatory about some testing activities they conduct to maintain and modernize their nuclear arsenals, with allegations made by the United States focusing on very low-yield fission experiments. In a world where trust in the nonproliferation regime is weakening and most bilateral arms control measures have been suspended, many experts fear that recriminations over very low-yield tests could spark a new escalation spiral to full-scale nuclear tests. Transparency measures could diffuse the suspicions around these tests and strengthen the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which is largely being complied with but still not legally in force.

KEYWORDS:

• Nuclear arms control
• CTBT
• subcritical tests
• nuclear weapon tests
• confidence-building measures

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Frank N. von Hippel and Moritz Kütt for their insightful and helpful reviews.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes

1. Communication with engineers during a visit to the US Nevada National Security Site conducted on November 29–30, 2023.

Additional information

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes on contributors

Julien de Troullioud de Lanversin

Julien de Troullioud de Lanversin is an assistant professor in the Division of Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He was a postdoc at Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom from 2021 to 2022 and at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation from 2019 to 2021. His research focuses on developing scientific methods and policy solutions to reduce the risks of nuclear technologies. de Troullioud de Lanversin was among the experts invited to the nongovernmental organizations’ visit to the Nevada National Security Site in November 2023.

Christopher Fichtlscherer

Christopher Fichtlscherer is currently a researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg and is pursuing in parallel a PhD at RWTH Aachen. He has a background in physics and mathematics and has conducted research in Vienna (Institute of Security and Risk Sciences), Daejeon (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology), Princeton (Program on Science and Global Security), and Cambridge (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). His main field of research lies in the topics of nuclear nonproliferation and the verification of arms control and disarmament treaties. Fichtlscherer was among the experts invited to the nongovernment organizations’ visit to the Nevada National Security Site in November 2023.