Reflections on transboundary water conflict and cooperation trends

ABSTRACT

This article explores major findings and evolutions in understandings of transboundary water conflict and cooperation over the last three decades, focusing on the trends emerging from the Transboundary Freshwater Diplomacy Database. It is found that since the 1940s, countries tend to cooperate over shared water resources, in contrast to media portrayals of ‘water wars’. Water conflicts, which have increased slightly since 2000, are mostly fuelled by water quantity disputes or unilateral infrastructure developments. Institutions play a role in facilitating cooperation and reducing conflict over shared waters, but their growth and adoption have slowed over the last few decades.

KEYWORDS:

• Transboundary water conflict and cooperation
• river basin organizations
• freshwater agreements
• transboundary freshwater diplomacy database
• transboundary aquifers
• shared waters

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all those who have contributed to the TFDD, including all past and present student research assistants at Oregon State University, The Fletcher School at Tufts University, IHE Delft – Institute for Water Education, and the Geneva Water Hub for their hard work and dedication.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The TFDD, housed at Oregon State University, is a collection of data sets, including the register of international river basins, international freshwater treaties, international freshwater events, and international river basin organizations. Established by Aaron T. Wolf and contributed to in partnership with IHE Delft, The Fletcher School at Tufts University, and other partners, the database monitors, analyses, and makes publicly available the most comprehensive data sets on transboundary freshwater river basins and their institutions.

2. The authors and broader research team associated with TFDD are currently, as of the time of writing, updating all three major data sets: the International Freshwater Events Database, the International Freshwater Agreements Database, and the International River Basin Organizations Database.

3. Average of less than 20 agreements signed per decade between 1860 and 1940, whereas between 1950 and 1980, between 60 and 80 were signed per decade. This peaked in the 1990s, with over 120 signed, then decreased with slightly over 80 signed in the 2000s, and only slightly above 40 agreements signed in the 2010s (McCracken et al., Forthcoming).

4. Aquifers with specific groundwater arrangements include: Nubian Sandstone, Genevese, Guarani, Al-Sag/Al-Disi, Illuemeden, Taoudeni/Tanezrouft, Northwestern Sahara, Senegalo-Mauritanian, and Stampriet.