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Abstract
Official Japanese reports into the causes of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident identified significant weaknesses in the country’s structures and systems for governing nuclear safety. As a result, the government undertook a number of legal and structural reforms. One of the most important was to establish a Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) in 2012 and grant it a high degree of independence and authority. Despite scepticism at the time over the likely effectiveness of this new agency, the NRA has taken a robust approach to permitting restarts after all nuclear reactors were shut down following the accident. This style of safety regulation owes much to the personality of the NRA Chairman and has been criticised as being unpredictable and overly strict. In late 2019, only 8 GWe of capacity was operating out of a pre-accident total of 48 GWe. As a result, the current government’s preference that nuclear power provide a significant, though gradually declining share of the energy mix is under threat. In institutional terminology, Japan’s nuclear power industry is at a juncture that could become critical, but the outcome is unpredictable at present. The rapid demise of the nuclear industry is quite possible, but a range of political and economic interests may prevent this. Much will depend on the actions of the next government.
Notes
1 The National Diet of Japan, The Official Report of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (The National Diet of Japan 2012) www.nirs.org/wp-content/uploads/fukushima/naiic_report.pdf accessed 17 July 2019 (National Diet Report); The Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Disaster: Investigating Myth and Reality (Routledge 2014) (Funabashi Report); and the Investigation Committee on the Accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations of the Tokyo Electric Power Company, Final Report (Investigation Committee on the Accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations of the Tokyo Electric Power Company 2012) www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/icanps/eng accessed 17 July 2019 (Hatamura Report).
2 Adrian Rinschild and others, ‘Why Do Junctures Become Critical? Political Discourse, Agency, and Joint Belief Shifts in Comparative Perspective’ (2019) Regulation and Governance https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rego.12238 accessed 10 June 2019.
3 Vlado Vivoda and Geordan Graetz, ‘Nuclear Policy and Regulation in Japan after Fukushima: Navigating the Crisis’ (2015) 45 Journal of Contemporary Asia 490.
4 Richard J Samuels, 3.11: Disaster and Change in Japan (Cornell University Press 2013).
5 Ibid; David Pilling, Bending Adversity: Japan and the Art of Survival (Allen Lane 2014).
6 R Taggart Murphy, Japan and the Shackles of the Past (Oxford University Press 2014).
7 Douglass C North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge University Press 1990); Douglass C North, Understanding the Process of Economic Change (Princeton University Press 2005).
8 James Mahoney and Kathleen Thelen, ‘A Theory of Gradual Institutional Change’ in James Mahoney and Kathleen Thelen (eds), Explaining Institutional Change: Ambiguity, Agency and Power (Cambridge University Press 2010).
9 Oliver E Williamson, ‘The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead’ (2000) 38 Journal of Economic Literature 595.
10 Paul Pierson, Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis (Princeton University Press 2004).
11 North, Institutions, Institutional Change (n 7).
12 Thrainn Eggertsson, Imperfect Institutions: Possibilities and Limits of Reform (University of Michigan Press 2005); John L Campbell, Institutional Change and Globalization (Princeton University Press 2004).
13 Peter A Hall and Rosemary CR Taylor, ‘Political Science and the Three Institutionalisms’ (1996) 44 Political Studies 936.
14 Mahoney and Thelen (n 8).
15 Richard Colignon and Chikako Usui, ‘The Resilience of Japan’s Iron Triangle’ (2001) 41 Asian Survey 865.
16 Kiyoshi Kurokawa and Andrea Ryoko Ninomiya, ‘Examining Regulatory Capture: Looking Back at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster, Seven Years Later’ (2018) 13 University of Pennsylvania Asian Law Review 47.
17 Junnosuke Masumi, Contemporary Politics in Japan (Lonny E Carlile tr, University of California Press 1995).
18 Murphy (n 6).
19 Jeff Kingston, Japan in Transformation, 1945–2010 (Longman 2011).
20 Peter A Hall and David Soskice (eds), Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage (Oxford University Press 2001).
21 Fumihito Gotoh, ‘Industrial Associations as Ideational Platforms: Why Japan Resisted American-style Shareholder Capitalism’ (2020) 33 The Pacific Review 125.
22 Hironori Sasada, The Evolution of the Japanese Developmental State (Routledge 2013).
23 Roland Dore, ‘The Residual Japaneseness of Japanese Corporate Governance’ in Hideko Magara and Stefano Sacchi (eds), The Politics of Structural Reforms: Social and Industrial Policy Change in Italy and Japan (Edward Elgar 2013) 25.
24 Colignon and Usui (n 15).
25 Gotoh (n 21).
26 Dore (n 23).
27 Kingston (n 19).
28 Motoshi Suzuki, ‘Japan’s Structural Reform in the Age of Economic Globalization: The Politics of Coordination and Miscoordination’ in Hideko Magara and Stefano Sacchi (eds), The Politics of Structural Reforms: Social and Industrial Policy Change in Italy and Japan (Edward Elgar 2013) 84.
29 Gotoh (n 21).
30 Daniel P Aldrich, ‘Rethinking Civil Society–State Relations in Japan after the Fukushima Accident’ (2013) 45 Polity 249; Brendan M Howe and Jennifer S Oh, ‘The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster and the Challenges of Japanese Democratic Governance’ (2013) 44 Korea Observer 495.
31 Jeff Kingston, Japan’s Quiet Revolution: Politics, Economics and Society (Routledge 2004).
32 Elsie Tipton, Modern Japan: A Social and Political History (Routledge 2016).
33 Jeff Kingston, ‘Japan’s Nuclear Village’ (2012) 10(37), Article No. 1. The Asia-Pacific Journal 1; Vivoda and Graetz (n 3).
34 Jacques EC Hymans, ‘After Fukushima: Veto Players and Japanese Nuclear Policy’ in Frank Baldwin and Anne Allison (eds), Japan: The Precarious Years Ahead (New York University Press 2015) 110; Hideaki Shiroyama, ‘Nuclear Safety Regulation in Japan and Impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident’ in Joohong Ahn and others (eds), Reflections on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident: Toward Social-Scientific Literacy and Engineering Resilience (Springer 2015) 283.
35 Shiroyama (n 34).
36 Elena Shadrina, ‘Fukushima Fallout: Gauging the Change in Japanese Nuclear Energy Policy’ (2012) 3 International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 69.
37 Hymans (n 34).
38 Howe and Oh (n 30).
39 Sherry Martin Murphy, ‘Grassroots Democrats and the Japanese State after Fukushima’ (2014) 2 Japanese Political Science Review 19.
40 Ibid.
41 International Atomic Energy Agency, Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) to Japan (IAEA-NSNI-IRRS-2007/01) (IAEA 2007) www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/review-missions/irrs_mission_to_japan_jun_2007.pdf accessed 7 April 2019.
42 National Diet Report (n 1); Funabashi Report (n 1); Hatamura Report (n 1).
43 National Diet Report (n 1).
44 Funabashi Report (n 1).
45 Taketoshi Taniguchi and Hideaki Shiroyama, ‘Long-term and Cross-sectoral Management of Interconnected Events: The Case of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident’ (2017) 5 International Relations and Diplomacy 521.
46 Shiroyama (n 34).
47 International Atomic Energy Agency (n 41).
48 Hatamura Report (n 1).
49 Funabashi Report (n 1).
50 National Diet Report (n 1); Funabashi Report (n 1); Kingston (n 33).
51 National Diet Report (n 1); Jeff Kingston, ‘Mismanaging Risk and the Fukushima Nuclear Crisis’ (2012) 10(12), Article No. 4. The Asia-Pacific Journal 4; Shiroyama (n 34).
52 Funabashi Report (n 1).
53 National Diet Report (n 1).
54 Hatamura Report (n 1); Shiroyama (n 34).
55 Kingston (n 33).
56 Shiroyama (n 34).
57 Funabashi Report (n 1).
58 Hatamura Report (n 1); Funabashi Report (n 1).
59 Funabashi Report (n 1).
60 Kingston (n 51).
61 Charles Perrow, ‘Fukushima and the Inevitability of Accidents’ (2011) 67(6) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 44.
62 Kingston (n 33).
63 National Diet Report (n 1).
64 Ibid.
65 Kingston (n 33).
66 Hatamura Report (n 1); Taniguchi and Shiroyama (n 45).
67 Sulfikar Amir and Kohta Juraku, ‘Undermining Disaster: Engineering and Epistemological Bias in the Fukushima Nuclear Crisis’ (2014) 6 Engineering Studies 210.
68 Kingston (n 33); Kingston (n 51); Aldrich (n 30).
69 Kingston (n 33); Shadrina (n 36).
70 Murphy (n 39).
71 Aldrich (n 30); Murphy (n 39).
72 Koichi Hasegawa, ‘The Fukushima Nuclear Accident and Japan’s Civil Society: Context, Reactions, and Policy Impacts’ (2014) 29 International Sociology 283.
73 Ibid.
74 National Diet Report (n 1); Hatamura Report (n 1).
75 Hatamura Report (n 1).
76 National Diet Report (n 1).
77 Ibid.
78 Ibid, 9.
79 International Atomic Energy Agency, Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) Mission to Japan (IAEA-NS-IRRS-2016) (IAEA 2016) www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/review-missions/irrs_mission_report_japan_2016.pdf accessed 9 June 2019.
80 Nuclear Regulation Authority, Japan, ‘Nuclear Regulation for the People and the Environment’ (NRA undated) www.nsr.go.jp/data/000067218.pdf accessed 2 June 2019.
81 Jeff Kingston, ‘Nuclear Power Politics in Japan, 2011–2013’ (2013) 37 Asian Perspective 501.
82 Shadrina (n 36).
83 Nuclear Regulation Authority, ‘Budget’ (in Japanese) www.nsr.go.jp/nra/seisakujikkou/budget/index.html accessed 17 July 2019.
84 Anonymous, ‘Beleaguered Japan Atomic Energy Commission to Survive but in Lesser Role’ (Japan Times, 11 December 2013) www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/12/11/national/beleaguered-japan-atomic-energy-commission-to-survive-but-in-lesser-role/#.XPSTf4gzaUk accessed 17 April 2019.
85 Jeffrey B Kucharski and Hironobu Unesaki, ‘An Institutional Analysis of the Japanese Energy Transition’ (2018) 29 Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 126.
86 Nuclear Damage Liability Facility Fund and Tokyo Electric Power Company, Comprehensive Special Business Plan (Outline) (TEPCO 2012) www7.tepco.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/hd05-02-06-001-120509_1-e.pdf accessed 10 August 2019; Tokyo Electric Power Company, New Comprehensive Special Business Plan (TEPCO 2014) www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu14_e/images/140115e0205.pdf accessed 10 August 2019; Tokyo Electric Power Company, Outline of the ‘Revised Comprehensive Special Business Plan (The Third Plan)’ (TEPCO undated) www7.tepco.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/170518e0101.pdf accessed 10 August 2019.
87 Anonymous, ‘New Nuclear Regulation Agency Lined with Nuclear Promoters’ (Japan Press Weekly, 25 September 2012) www.japan-press.co.jp/s/news/index.php?id=4147 accessed 23 May 2019.
88 Jeff Kingston, ‘Abe’s Nuclear Renaissance: Energy Politics in Post-3.11 Japan’ (2014) 46 Critical Asian Studies 461.
89 Hymans (n 34).
90 International Atomic Energy Agency (n 79).
91 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
92 Noriko Behling, Mark C Williams and Shunsuke Managi, ‘Regulating Japan’s Nuclear Power Industry to Achieve Zero Accidents’ (2019) 127 Energy Policy 308.
93 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
94 Ibid.
95 Shin-etsu Sugawara and Tomoaki Inamura, Development and Application of Nuclear Safety Goals in Japan – Lessons Learnt from the Case of 2003 Draft Safety Goals (Socio-Economic Research Center Report No Y15016, CRIEPI 2015) (in Japanese); Akira Yamaguchi, Junko Takeuchi and Shin-etsu Sugawara, Safety Goals Reconsidered – Why Do We Need Safety Goals? (Study Group on Safety Goals 2018) (in Japanese).
96 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
97 Ibid.
98 Ibid.
99 World Nuclear Association, ‘Nuclear Power in Japan’ (updated to August 2019) www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx accessed 10 October 2019.
100 Asahi Shimbun, ‘TEPCO to Pour 222 Billion Yen into Tokai No.2 Nuclear Plant’ (Asahi Shimbun, 29 October 2019) www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201910290042.html accessed 10 November 2019.
101 Reuters, ‘Japan’s TEPCO to Submit Decommissioning Plan Regarding Five Reactors’ (Reuters Business News, 23 August 2019) www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-nuclear-tepco-decommissioning/japans-tepco-to-submit-decommissioning-plan-regarding-five-reactors-media-idUSKCN1VD0PL accessed 18 September 2019.
102 Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, ‘NPPs in Japan’ www.jaif.or.jp/en/npps-in-japan accessed 18 November 2019.
103 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
104 World Nuclear Association (n 99); Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (n 102).
105 Tokyo Electric Power Company, TEPCO Integrated Report 2017 www7.tepco.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/hd05-02-03-002-tir2017_01-e.pdf accessed 10 August 2019.
106 Atsuko Kitada, ‘Public Opinion Changes after Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident to Nuclear Power Generation as Seen in Continuous Polls over the Past 30 Years’ (2016) 53 Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology 1686; Tatsujiro Suzuki, ‘Nuclear Energy Policy Issues in Japan After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: An Analysis of “Polarized Debate” in Japan’ (2019) Intechopen www.intechopen.com/online-first/nuclear-energy-policy-after-the-fukushima-nuclear-accident-an-analysis-of-polarized-debate-in-japan accessed 20 August 2019.
107 Aldrich (n 30).
108 Kingston (n 88); Hasegawa (n 72).
109 Suzuki (n 106).
110 Aldrich (n 30).
111 Howe and Oh (n 30).
112 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
113 Howe and Oh (n 30).
114 Suzuki (n 106).
115 Ibid.
116 Interviews in Tokyo carried out by the author in May 2019.
117 Murphy (n 6); Pilling (n 5).
118 Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Strategic Energy Plan 2018 (provisional English translation) www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2018/pdf/0703_002c.pdf accessed 10 May 2019.
119 Sumiko Takeuchi, ‘Is There a Future for Nuclear Power in Japan?’ (The Japan Times, 16 July 2019) www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/16/business/future-nuclear-power-japan/#.XddMHOgzaUk accessed 7 October 2019.
120 Justin McCurry, ‘Japan Should Scrap Nuclear Reactors after Fukushima, Says New Environment Minister’ (The Guardian, London, 12 September 2019) www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/12/japan-should-scrap-nuclear-reactors-after-fukushima-says-new-environment-minister accessed 23 October 2019.
121 Michael MacArthur Bosack, ‘The Humbling of Shinjiro Koizumi’ (The Japan Times, 21 October 2019) www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/10/21/commentary/japan-commentary/humbling-shinjiro-koizumi/#.XddHV-gzaUk accessed 23 October 2019.
122 Mahoney and Thelen (n 8).
123 Rinschild and others (n 2).
124 Murphy (n 6); Kurokawa and Ninomiya (n 16).
125 William E Kastenberg, ‘Ethics, Risk and Safety Culture: Reflections on Fukushima and Beyond’ in Joohong Ahn and others (eds), Reflections on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident: Toward Social-Scientific Literacy and Engineering Resilience (Springer 2015) 165–87.
126 Murphy (n 6).
127 Justin McCurry, ‘Fukushima Disaster: Japanese Power Company Chiefs Cleared of Negligence’ (The Guardian, London, 19 September 2019) www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/19/fukushima-disaster-japanese-power-company-chiefs-cleared-of-negligence accessed 23 October 2019.
128 Kurokawa and Ninomiya (n 16).