The period effects of crisis and recovery on life course and residential mobility of owner-occupants

Abstract

This study examines how the relationship between life course and mobility of owner-occupants is affected by periods of economic and housing market downturn and recovery. The impact of ‘period effects’ are largely unknown. Using Dutch register data, we compare the probabilities of moving in view of partnership, children and employment status for 2012–2014 and 2014–2016. We find that the downturn period is associated with lower mobility, yet the association is different for various household situations. Mobility to ownership in the crisis was particularly constrained for stable couples, employed owners and households with children. Moves to the rental sector were less period sensitive. Only owners who became unemployed were more likely to move into rental during crisis. ‘Delayed mobility’ has been found for moving in together, separation, households who had children, and job change. So, periods of crisis and recovery structure how home-owners adapt to life-course changes. Our findings imply that period effects should be accounted for in residential mobility studies.

Keywords:

• Housing crisis
• life course
• residential mobility
• period effect
• the Netherlands

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Sako Musterd, Cody Hochstenbach, and Amber Howard as well as the anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimers apply.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Before 2016, the maximum was 38 months.

2 All analyses have consistent data sources and definitions for each year (January 1^st 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016). To establish owner occupancy, we have used data based on population registers (current residence) and dwelling ownership.

3 On a quarterly basis, pre-crisis house prices peak in Q3 2008. The lowest quarterly price index readings are Q2 and Q4 2013. From Q1 2014 onwards house price start to rise again consistently (Kadaster 2021).

4 Our data accounts for premiums paid into the tax-exempt savings accounts and insurance policies issued jointly with mortgages (‘(bank)spaar- en beleggingshypotheken’).

5 Some owners may be overleveraged, but their high mobility indicates that high ratios are also due to timing lags in ownership and loan registration surrounding a move. Also, some households may hold additional loans for a bought dwelling that is under construction (and therefore missing in the housing value dataset).

6 The estimates can go below 50% as partners can move in from outside of owner-occupation. Only home-owners at t0 are part of our dataset.

Additional information

Funding

The position of Rik Damhuis was co-financed by Corpovenista (a research cooperative programme of Dutch housing associations), Woonbedrijf Eindhoven and the municipalities of Amsterdam and Almere.

Notes on contributors

Rik Damhuis

Rik Damhuis worked as a Researcher at the Department of Geography, Planning and International Development Studies at the University of Amsterdam. He is currently employed in the private sector.

Wouter van Gent

Wouter van Gent is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Geography, Planning and International Development Studies at the University of Amsterdam.