Front and centre? Northern Irish electoral behaviour in the age of Brexit

ABSTRACT

In post-conflict societies, traumatic experiences can have a profound effect on electoral behaviour. In Northern Ireland, Westminster elections between 2001 and 2017 were marked by the rise of hardline parties, but the 2019 election saw a significant shift towards the centre. The centre ground vote soared, resulting in the lowest level of political polarisation since the early 2000s. What are the factors underlying this transition to a moderate vote? Drawing on public opinion surveys and electoral data, we find that Brexit played a crucial role in incentivising voters to support parties prioritising non-sectarian constitutional interests. The findings suggest that voters employ party competition as a balancing mechanism. Our article contributes to the understanding of how individuals in post-conflict societies navigate the complex relationship between violence, politics, and peacebuilding.

KEYWORDS:

• Brexit
• centrism
• Northern Ireland
• voter behaviour

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Although Stormont elections, as well as other regional political occurrences, are indeed referenced in the article where appropriate, the focus is the Northern Irish centre ground in Westminster elections.

2 This first wave of violence includes the Drumcree conflict (1998-2000), 2001 South Armagh attacks, July 2001 Belfast riots, November 2001 Belfast riots, May 2002 Belfast riots, and 2002 Short Strand clashes.

3 This second wave of violence includes the 2010 Northern Ireland riots, 2011 Northern Ireland riots, 2012 North Belfast riots, and 2013 Belfast riots.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Israel Science Foundation under Grant 751/18.

Notes on contributors

Noam Peterburg

Noam Peterburg is a PhD student in political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His research interests include electoral politics, political centrism, nationalism, and constitutional structures. In his thesis he explores the electoral behaviour of national minorities in multinational states, focusing on the motivations for supporting secessionist parties in various contexts.

Odelia Oshri

Odelia Oshri is an Assistant Professor in the Political Science Department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. She studies comparative political behaviour in advanced democracies, public opinion, political representation and gender and politics. In her current work she examines failures in representation linked to changes in mainstream party platforms and causes and consequences of radical right populism.