Climate Impacts and Institutionalization in Viet Nam

Abstract

In this article, we present an economy-wide assessment of the economic impacts of climate change in Viet Nam under a net zero scenario. Viet Nam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Asia - Pacific region. The changes in political and socio-economic conditions since the Đổi Mới reforms have been accompanied by the progressive building of new environmental policies. A specific form of Vietnamese environmental State has emerged, climaxing in the Net Zero announcement of Viet Nam at COP26 and its participation in the Just Transition Energy Partnership coalition. At the same time, the ongoing climate crisis makes it crucial to assess the climate change impacts for policy planning at the macroeconomic level. The loss due to climate change could prevent Viet Nam from achieving its development target of becoming an industrialized country by 2045, let alone reaching the Net Zero ambition. In addition, we consider how climate change and the political discourse on climate change are currently progressively institutionalized and becoming an integral component of Vietnamese social dynamics.

Keywords:

• Financial balances
• institutional economics
• National accounting
• post-Keynesian economics
• stock-flow modeling

JEL CLASSIFICATIONS:

• E12
• E16
• E44
• E47
• Q54
• Q57

Acknowledgements

The research shown in this article is the result of the GEMMES Viet Nam project, funded by the Facility 2050 led by the Agence Française de Developpement (AFD). See more here: https://www.afd.fr/en/gemmes-vietnam-analysis-socio-economic-impacts-climate-change-vietnam-and-adaptation-strategies. The authors are grateful to the editors and the two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments and remarks to improve the article. The authors are responsible for all remaining errors and omissions.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Thi Thu Ha Nguyen

Thi Thu Ha Nguyen is a Research Analyst at the Macroeconomic, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global Practice, World Bank Hanoi Office.

Étienne Espagne

Étienne Espagne is a Senior Climate Economist at the World Bank Equitable Growth, Finance and Institution (EFI) Chief Economist Office and an associate researcher at Center for Studies and Research on International Development (CERDI).