A mathematical model for control strategies of COVID-19

Abstract

Until finding medicines or vaccines for newly outbreaking infectious diseases, the mostly applying control strategies are maintaining social distancing, quarantining suspected exposures, and isolating infectious people. This paper proposes a mathematical model for control strategies of COVID-19, considering population sub-classes susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Quarantined (Q), Infected (I), Isolated (J), and Recovered (R). Mathematical models consisting of these sub-classes are called SEQIJR type models. The basic reproduction number of the proposed mathematical model is derived based on the next-generation matrix. Based on the basic reproduction number of the model, the disease dies out and the disease persists parameter spaces are determined. The effects of the rates and applying stages of the control strategies on the spread of the disease are explained. Outcomes of the proposed model are helpful to identify suitable stages and strengths of the control strategies to control the disease, considering available health care capacity.

Subject Classification:

• 37N25
• 91B74
• 93A30

Keywords:

• Disease modelling
• COVID-19
• Reproduction Number
• Quarantine
• Isolation
• Social distancing