A SEIAR mathematical model to analyse the effect of COVID-19 pandemic over the crowded and dense populated regions

Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to formulate a SEIR-type mathematical model for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic by incorporating an additional asymptomatic compartment. The formulated model contains a system of ordinary differential equations. The basic reproduction number R₀ is obtained by applying the next-generation matrix method. For India, daily death cases and cumulative COVID-19 death cases were used to fit the model from March 20, 2020 to May 10, 2020. A tool MATLAB is used for numerical simulation and validation of analytical results. It is found that the coronavirus infection rate depends on the compactness of the population i.e., the infection rate in a particular region either increases or decreases depending on the population density of the region. The infection dynamics of coronavirus are also reduced when masks are worn and social distance is maintained.

Subject Classification:

• 92B05
• 62P10
• 92D30

Keywords:

• Coronavirus
• Epidemiology
• Asymptomatic infected
• Density
• Intervention policy