Mathematical model of a dynamic transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the World

Abstract

The ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 disease has a significant impact on the world population due to its nature of permeating. In this scenario, assorted studies are being made to control the epidemic. We have proposed a compartmental model for the disease and aimed to find the basic reproduction number which can indicate the potential of the disease transmission. We have analyzed the stability and dynamics of the proposed model and also the optimal control for the same. Here the quarantine is given for exposed individuals and treatment is for infected to control the impact of corona virus. The simulation results of control over virus shows that the infected rate will slightly decreases after 45 days, if the people follow social distancing. To support our findings we had compared the simulation results of our model with real-time data reported by the World Health Organization.

Subject Classification:

• 92BXX
• 49-XX
• 74H55
• 97Mxx

Keywords:

• COVID-19
• Basic reproduction number
• Jacobian matrix
• Stability analysis
• Optimal control