An analysis to identify the structural breaks of Covid-19 in Turkey

Abstract

In countries with a severe outbreak of Covid-19, most governments are considering whether anti-transmission measures are worth social and economic costs. The seriousness of economic costs such as the closure of some workplaces, unemployment, reduction in production, and social costs such as school closures, disruptions in education could be observable. However, the effect of the measures taken on the spread of the epidemic could not be observed. For this reason, in this study, the breakpoint linear regression analysis is performed to analyze the trends of daily active cases, recoveries, and deaths in Turkey. The analysis reveals that there is a remarkable impact of lockdown, and other precautions. Using the breakpoint regression model, we also analyze the active cases’ trajectory for eight affected countries, and compare the patterns in these countries with Turkey.

Subject Classification: (2010):

• 62F10
• 62J99
• 62P10

Keywords:

• Breakpoints
• Linear breakpoint regression
• Covidien
• Epidemiological pattern
• Piecewise regression
• Segmented regression