Long-term costs and benefits analysis of China’s low-carbon policies

ABSTRACT

China’s long-term, low-emission development goals will hinge on effective low-carbon policies. Therefore, it is valuable to evaluate the costs and benefits of low-carbon policy packages to ensure that low-carbon development concepts and strategies can be well integrated into the policy making process. This work uses the Low-carbon Policy Assessment (LPA) model to assess long-term costs and benefits of climate and energy policies in China under the reference (RS) scenario and the low-carbon (LC) scenario, which includes 25 additional climate and energy policies. In the LC scenario, both energy-related CO₂ emissions and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions peak around 2030, achieving China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. Of the policies included in the LC scenario, the five with the highest GHG mitigation potential beyond China’s existing policies are: fluorinated gas (F-gas) substitution, a renewable portfolio standard, carbon pricing, carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), and a fuel economy standard for heavy duty vehicles (HDVs). In addition to reducing GHG emissions, these policies decrease particulate emissions and associated premature deaths, which would otherwise reduce China’s GDP by nearly 1.5% in 2050. Together, these policies have the potential to promote significant low-carbon prosperity in China.

KEYWORDS:

• China
• GHG emissions
• low-carbon policies
• cost-benefit analysis

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology, LLC, which provided technical support for model building and data analysis.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. The y axis indicates the ratio of air pollutant emissions in the LC scenario in those in the RS scenario in each year.

Additional information

Funding

This study was supported by The National Key Research and Development Program of China [Grant No. 2016YFA0602800].