The Influence of Current Temperature Fluctuations on the Economic Activity of the Baikal Region¹

ABSTRACT

This article reviews a number of characteristics of the heating season in the Baikal region’s south both over many years and interannually. It uncovers a 6- to 10-day reduction in the heating seasons of recent decades (from 1991 through 2017) as compared to long-term data up to 1960. It also shows noticeable growth in outside temperature during the heating season: 3.9°C in Chita, 4.1°C in Irkutsk, and 5.0°C in Ulan-Ude. In the aggregate, changes in these indicators influenced the 15–19 percent decrease in the index of fuel consumption. An analysis of interannual fluctuations in heating season characteristics from 1991 through 2017 uncovered that anomalously low temperatures have greater magnitudes and are seen more frequently than anomalously warm winters. The index of fuel consumption varied by 14—20 percent interannually. This is comparable to long-term fluctuations (to 1960). It is demonstrated that against the background of ongoing warming, abrupt interannual temperature fluctuations are showing an ambiguous effect on economic activity in the Baikal region.

KEYWORDS:

• heating season
• index of fuel consumption
• dynamics of outdoor temperatures
• long-term changes
• interannual fluctuations

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/10611991.2022.2145167

Notes

This article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 17-29-05068.

1. Bulygina, O.N., V.N. Razuvaev, and T.M. Aleksandrova, “Opisanie massiva dannykh sutochnoi temperatury vozdukha i kolichestva osadkov na meteorologicheskikh stantsiiakh Rossii i byvshego SSSR (TTTR),” Svid. o gos. registratsii bazy dannykh No. 2014620942 (available at http://meteo.ru/data/162-temperature-precipitation#описание-массива-данных, date accessed: February 6, 2019).

2. Spravochnik po klimaty. Vyp. 21. ch. II (Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1966).

3. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed this multiyear interval as the basis for evaluating modern climate changes.

4. Statisticheskii ezhegodnik Zhilishchno-kommunal’noe khoziaistvo Irkutskoi oblasti v 2017. Stat. sb. (Irkutskstat: Irkutsk, 2018), 80 pp.

5. Ob utverzhdenii skhemy i Programmy razvitiia elektroenergetiki Irkutskoi oblasti na 2017–2021 gg. (v red. Ukaza gubernatora Irkutskoi oblasti ot 22.12.2016 No. 314-ug), www.pravo.gov.ru (available at http://docs.cntd.ru/document/445049800).