Prediction of extreme climate on the Tibetan Plateau based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

Abstract

As a climate-sensitive and fragile region, how the Tibetan Plateau (TP) responds to global warming would have significant implications for its ecological environment and sustainable socio-economic development. A crucial tool for assessing fine-scale climate impacts is the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. This study utilized the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset to determine changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) relative to the baseline warming by 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. By using the Theil-Sen median trend and Mann-Kendall test methods, the research concluded that warming trends and increased humidity were on an upward trend. These changes led to amplified fluctuations in the frequency, intensity, and duration of multiple extreme indices.

Keywords:

• Tibetan Plateau
• NEX-GDDP-CMIP6
• baseline
• Theil-Sen median trend analysis
• Mann-Kendall test

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the financial support provided by [2019QZKK1001]. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This study is funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (no. 2019QZKK1001).