Beyond the Arc of Crisis: Jimmy Carter and the Arab ‘Radicals,’ 1978–79

ABSTRACT

After signing the Camp David Accords, the Carter administration pushed to increase American security cooperation and military presence in the Middle East. Though often seen as a response to the regional instability caused by the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the hardening of US policy toward the region was also due to the Arab rejectionist threat to the Egyptian-Israeli peace process that Washington saw as a prerequisite to regional stability. This essay highlights the connections between the peace process, the collapse of Soviet-American détente, and the reorientation of US policy in the region toward the Persian Gulf.

KEYWORDS:

• Jimmy Carter
• Middle East
• Camp David Accords
• détente
• Arab-Israeli conflict
• Arab League

Notes

¹ Craig Daigle, The Limits of Détente: The United States, the Soviet Union, and the Arab–Israeli Conflict, 1969–1973 (New Haven, CT, 2012); Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez, The Soviet–Israeli War, 1967–1973: The USSR’s Military Intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli Conflict (Oxford, UK, 2017).

² Raymond Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan, rev. ed. (Washington, DC, 1994), 653-785; Vladislav Zubok, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (Chapel Hill, NC, [2007] 2009), 255-258; Lorenz M. Lüthi, Cold Wars: Asia, the Middle East, Europe (Cambridge, UK, 2020), 489-562.

³ UK Embassy Damascus to FCO, ‘Arab/Israel’, March 15, 1979, FCO 93/2205, Adam Mathew Archives Direct. See Adeed I. Dawisha, The Arab Radicals (New York, NY, 1986).

⁴ Robert O. Freedman, Soviet Policy toward the Middle East since 1970, 3rd ed. (New York, NY, 1982); Galia Golan, Soviet policies in the Middle East from World War Two to Gorbachev (Cambridge, UK, 1990); Alexey Vasiliev, Russia’s Middle East Policy: From Lenin to Putin (London, UK, 2018).

⁵ Foreign Relations of the United States (hereafter FRUS), 1977–1980, vol. IX, Arab-Israeli Dispute, August 1978–December 1980, 2nd rev. ed. (hereafter vol. IX.2), ed. Alexander R. Wieland (Washington, DC, 2018), docs. 91, 92, 106 and 124.

⁶ Carol R. Saivetz, ‘Superpower Competition in the Middle East and the Collapse of Détente,’ in The Fall of Détente: Soviet–American Relations during the Carter Years, ed. Odd Arne Westad (Oslo, NO, 1997), 72-94; Seth Anziska, Preventing Palestine: A Political History from Camp David to Oslo (Princeton, NJ, 2018); Galen Jackson, A Lost Peace: Great Power Politics and the Arab-Israeli Dispute, 1967–1979 (Ithaca, NY, 2023); Jørgen Jensehaugen, Arab-Israeli Diplomacy under Carter: The US, Israel and the Palestinians (London, UK, 2018); Daniel Strieff, Jimmy Carter and the Middle East: The Politics of Presidential Diplomacy (London, UK, 2015).

⁷ Andrew J. Bacevich, America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History (New York, NY, 2016).

⁸ Nathan J. Citino, ‘The Middle East and the Cold War’, Cold War History 19, No. 3 (2019): 454; Craig Daigle, ‘A Crescent of Crisis: The Middle East and Persian Gulf’, in The Regional Cold Wars in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East: Crucial Periods and Turning Points, ed. Lorenz M. Lüthi (Stanford, CA, 2015), 245-259; Daigle, ‘Sadat’s African dilemma: Libya, Ethiopia, and the making of the Camp David Accords’, Cold War History (April 2019): 295-313.

⁹ Anziska, Preventing Palestine; Jensehaugen, Arab-Israeli Diplomacy under Carter; Burton I. Kaufman, The Arab Middle East and the United States: Inter-Arab Rivalry and Superpower Diplomacy (New York, NY, 1996), 106-119; William B. Quandt, Camp David: Peacemaking and Politics (Washington, DC, [1986] 2016).

¹⁰ On Afghanistan and Iran, see Christian Emery, US Foreign Policy and the Iranian Revolution: The Cold War Dynamics of Engagement and Strategic Alliance (London, UK, 2013); and Conor Tobin, ‘The Myth of the “Afghan Trap”: Zbigniew Brzezinski and Afghanistan, 1978–1979’, Diplomatic History 44, no. 2 (2020): 237-264.

¹¹ Olav Njølstad, ‘Shifting Priorities: The Persian Gulf in US Strategic Planning in the Carter Years’, Cold War History 4, no. 3 (April 2004): 21-55; William E. Odom, ‘The Cold War Origins of the U.S. Central Command’, Journal of Cold War Studies 8, no. 2 (Spring 2006): 52-82; Luis da Vinha, ‘Selling the Arc of Crisis: Promoting Foreign Policy Change during the Carter Presidency’, Slovak Journal of Political Science 16, no. 2 (2016): 162-189.

¹² Noam Chomsky, The Fateful Triangle: The United States, Israel and the Palestinians, updated ed. (London: Pluto Press, 1999); Colter Louwerse, ‘“Tyranny of the Veto”: PLO Diplomacy and the January 1976 United Nations Security Council Resolution’, Diplomacy & Statecraft 33, no. 2 (2022): 303-329; Adel Safty, From Camp David to the Gulf: Negotiations, Language & Propaganda, and War (Montreal: Black Rose Books, 1992).

¹³ Galen Jackson, ‘Who Killed Détente? The Superpowers and the Cold War in the Middle East, 1969–77’, International Security 44, no. 3 (Winter 2019/2020): 129-162.

¹⁴ Anziska, Preventing Palestine, 155; Jensehaugen, Arab-Israeli Diplomacy under Carter, 1-77; Strieff, Jimmy Carter and the Middle East, 1-78.

¹⁵ Jackson, A Lost Peace, 162-187.

¹⁶ Saivetz, ‘Superpower Competition in the Middle East’, 89.

¹⁷ Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, A Century of Arab Politics: From the Arab Revolt to the Arab Spring (Lanham, MD, 2016), 116.

¹⁸ Jimmy Carter, White House Diary (New York, NY, 2010), 137.

¹⁹ Quandt, Camp David, 155.

²⁰ Salim Yaqub, Imperfect Strangers: Americans, Arabs, and U.S.–Middle East Relations in the 1970s (Ithaca, NY, 2016), 261.

²¹ Benjamin V. Allison “Through the Cracks of Détente: US Policy, the Steadfastness and Confrontation Front, and the Coming of the Second Cold War, 1977–1984,” (Master’s thesis, Kent State University, 2020), 20-71.

²² AmEmbassy Beirut to Secretary of State, ‘Camp David: Guidance for Discussion’, 21 September 1978 (Beirut 5508), US National Archives, Access to Archival Databases (hereafter AAD).

²³ Carter to Hussein and Carter to Assad, Washington, 19 September 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX, docs. 61 and 62.

²⁴ Secretary of State to Multiple Posts, ‘U.S. Support for Camp David’, 26 September 1978 (State 244085), AAD. Responses arrived on 26-27 September 1978 (Algiers 2739, Baghdad 1987, Damascus 5739, Tripoli 1354, Jidda 6908, Amman 7575, and Sana 4822, AAD).

²⁵ Memcon, Vance et al. and Hussein et al., Amman, September 30, 1978, 5:30 p.m., and Memcon, Fahd et al. and Vance et al., Riyadh, 21 September 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 64 and 65.

²⁶ Secretary’s Aircraft to Secretary of State (Christopher), ‘Meeting with Assad September 24, 1978’, 24 September 1978 (SECTO 10071), AAD.

²⁷ Situation Room to Brzezinski, ‘Additional Information Items’, 30 September 1978, Records of the National Security Advisor, President’s Daily Report Files (hereafter NSA 1), Box 7, Folder 9, Jimmy Carter Library (hereafter JCL).

²⁸ See, for example, Carter to Long, 12 October 1978, Records of the Office of the National Security Advisor, Staff Material – Middle East (hereafter NSA 25), Box 88, Folder 9, JCL; INR/RNA/NE – [redacted] to Lake, ‘DISSENT CHANNEL MESSAGE: The US and Syria: The Special Relationship Crumbles’, 13 October 1978, and Lake to INR/RNA – [redacted], ‘Dissent Channel Message: The US and Syria: The Special Relationship Crumbles’, 7 December 1978, in Briefing Book #620: Department of State’s Dissent Channel Revealed, ed. Nate Jones, Tom Blanton, and Emma Sarfity (National Security Archive, March 15, 2018), doc. 21.

²⁹ Patrick Seale with Maureen McConville, Assad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East (Oakland, CA, 1988), 311; Efraim Karsh, Soviet Policy towards Syria since 1970 (New York, NY, 1991), 119; The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World (New York, NY, 2005), 207; Roland Dannreuther, The Soviet Union and the PLO (New York, NY, 1998), 107-111.

³⁰ Eberhard Kienle, Ba’th v. Ba’th: The Conflict between Syria and Iraq, 1968–1989 (London, UK, 1990), 135-147; Sonoko Sunayama, Syria and Saudi Arabia: Collaboration and Conflicts in the Oil Era (London, UK, 2007), 52.

³¹ US Interest Section Baghdad to Secretary of State, ‘Arab Summit in Baghdad’, 7 October 1978 (Baghdad 2073) and Secretary of State to US Mission in the Sinai, ‘Intsum 666—October 10, 1978’, 11 October 1978 (State 256720), AAD.

³² US Interest Section Baghdad to Secretary of State, ‘Iraqi-Syrian Rapprochement’, 27 October 1978 (Baghdad 2230), AAD; Dannreuther, The Soviet Union and the PLO, 105-106.

³³ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Information Items’, 30 October 1978, NSA 1, Box 8, Folder 3, JCL; NIDC 78/256, CIA Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room (hereafter CIA FOIA).

³⁴ Bassam Abu Sharif, Arafat and the Dream of Palestine: An Insider’s Account (New York, NY, 2009), 58-59; Barnett, Dialogues in Arab Politics: Negotiations in Regional Order (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), 194-195; William B. Quandt, Saudi Arabia in the 1980s: Foreign Policy, Security, and Oil (Washington, DC, 1981), 115; Joseph Kostiner, ‘Saudi Arabia and the Arab–Israeli Peace Process: The Fluctuation of Regional Coordination,’ British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 36, no. 3 (December 2009): 417-429.

³⁵ Seale with McConville, Assad of Syria, 313.

³⁶ Nigel Ashton, ‘Taking Friends for Granted: The Carter Administration, Jordan, and the Camp David Accords, 1977–1980’, Diplomatic History 41, no. 3 (2017): 620-645; Mahida Rashid al Madfai, Jordan, the United States and the Middle East Peace Process, 1974–1991 (Cambridge, UK, 1993), 48-54; Secretary of State to AmEmbassy Amman, ‘Meeting with Sharaf in Algiers’, 1 January 1979 (State 14), AAD.

³⁷ Barnett, Dialogues in Arab Politics, 195.

³⁸ Carter, Keeping Faith: Memoirs of a President (Toronto, 1982), 410-411; Quandt, Saudi Arabia in the 1980s, 114; Memcon, ‘President’s Meeting with Prime Minister Nouira of Tunisia’, 29 November 1978, 11:10-12:00 p.m., NSA 25, Box 1, Folder 9, JCL.

³⁹ Joseph Wright Twinam, ‘Soviet Policy for the Gulf Arab States,’ in Domestic Determinants of Soviet Foreign Policy towards South Asia and the Middle East, ed. Hafeez Malik (New York, NY, 1990), 249. On the Soviet-American diplomatic competition before the Baghdad Summit, see Benjamin V. Allison, “From Camp David to Baghdad: Scrambling for and Against Peace in the Middle East, Fall 1978,” Not Even Past (January 20, 2023), https://notevenpast.org/from-camp-david-to-baghdad-scrambling-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-fall-1978/.

⁴⁰ Sadat, quoted in Quandt, Camp David, 289; Telcon, Carter and Sadat, 12 November 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 132.

⁴¹ AmEmbassy Egypt to Department of State, ‘USG Attitude re Possible Egyptian Move Against Libya’, Cairo, 4 November 1978, 1016Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVII, part 3: North Africa (hereafter vol. XVII–3), ed. Myra F. Burton (Washington, DC, 2017), doc. 36.

⁴² Secretary of State to US Mission in the Sinai, ‘INTSUM 194—November 1978’, 21 November 1978 (State 294477), AAD; Atherton to Vance, Washington, 9 November 1978, and Vance to Carter, ‘Middle East Strategy’, Washington, 9 November 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 129 and 127.

⁴³ Secretary of State to US Mission to NATO, ‘NAC Discussion of NATO Experts Report on USSR and Eastern Europe’, 6 November 1978 (State 289850), AAD.

⁴⁴ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Worst Case Scenarios in the Middle East’, 24 November 1978, CIA FOIA; Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Secretary Vance’s Middle East Strategy Paper’, Washington, 1 February 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 171; Vance to Carter, ‘Strategy for the Middle East Negotiations’, undated, Zbigniew Brzezinski Collection, Subject Files (hereafter ZB Subject Files), Box 36, Folder 4, JCL.

⁴⁵ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #79’, 9 November 1978, Plains Files, Box 29, Folder 2, JCL; Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #86’, 26 January 1979, and Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #89’, 24 February 1979, Plains Files, Box 29, Folder 3, JCL.

⁴⁶ Jordan to Carter, 30 November 1978, Office of the Chief of Staff Files, Box 49, Folder 6, JCL.

⁴⁷ Robert A. Strong, Working in the World: Jimmy Carter and the Making of American Foreign Policy (Baton Rouge, LA, 2000), 191-192; AmEmbassy Amman to Department of State and White House, ‘Message to President from King Hussein’, 30 December 1978, 1325Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 163; State 14, AAD; ‘Agenda for PRC Meeting on Saudi Arabia and Jordan’, undated, Records of the Office of the National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski Material – Office Files (hereafter NSA 15), Box 46, Folder 5, JCL.

⁴⁸ Memcon, ‘President’s Meeting with Vice President Mubarak’, Washington, 16 November 1978, 10–11:30 a.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 139.

⁴⁹ FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVII–3, docs. 66-72; Mohammed Lakhdar Ghettas, Algeria and the Cold War: International Relations and the Struggle for Autonomy (London, UK, 2018), 207-213.

⁵⁰ Emphasis in original. Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Worst Case Scenarios in the Middle East’, 24 November 1978, CIA FOIA.

⁵¹ Tarnoff to Brzezinski, ‘A Solution to Lebanon’s Problems’, 6 November 1978, NSA 25, Box 58, Folder 1, JCL; Quandt to Brzezinski, ‘Revitalizing our Middle East Policy’, 30 November 1978, ZB Subject Files, Box 36, Folder 8, JCL.

⁵² See, for example, Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Initial Reaction to the Latest Middle East Difficulty’, Washington, 30 November 1978, and Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Strategy for the Vance Trip to the Middle East (U)’, Washington, 6 December 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 149 and 152.

⁵³ Quandt to Brzezinski, ‘Soviet Middle East Policy’, 17 January 1979, Records of the Office of the National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski Material – Country Files (hereafter NSA 6), Box 51, Folder 3, JCL.

⁵⁴ See, for example, AmEmbassy Jidda to Department of State, ‘South Arabia’, Jidda, 9 September 1978, 1230Z, and Sick to Brzezinski, ‘Cracks in Saudi Facade (U)’, Washington, 22 December 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, Middle East Region; Arabian Peninsula, ed. Kelly M. McFarland (Washington, DC, 2015), docs. 255 and 175. See also Tobin, ‘Myth of the “Afghan Trap”’, 240-253.

⁵⁵ W. Taylor Fain, ‘Conceiving the “Arc of Crisis” in the Indian Ocean Region,’ Diplomatic History 42, no. 4 (September 2018): 694-719.

⁵⁶ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #81,’ Washington, 2 December 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. I, Foundations of Foreign Policy, ed. Kristin L. Ahlberg (Washington, DC, 2014), doc. 100.

⁵⁷ Memorandum for the Record, ‘Summary of President’s Meeting with Ambassador Dinitz’, Washington, 7 December 1978, 11–11:25 a.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 153.

⁵⁸ Emphasis added. Carter to Sadat, Washington, 8 December 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 154.

⁵⁹ Quandt to Brzezinski, ‘Status Report on Egypt-Israel Negotiations’, Washington, 26 December 1978, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 162.

⁶⁰ Quandt to Brzezinski, ‘Egypt Compared to Iraq and Syria’, 14 February 1979, NSA 25, Box 88, Folder 9, JCL; Quandt to Clift, ‘Status of Egypt-Israel Peace Negotiations,’ Washington, 19 January 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 169; Seale with McConville, Asad of Syria, 309; Carl Forsberg, ‘Iraq, the United States, and the long shadow of the Cold War’, Cold War History 19, no. 4 (2019): 457-476; Hal Brands, ‘Before the Tilt: The Carter Administration Engages Saddam Hussein’, Diplomacy & Statecraft 26 (2015): 103-123.

⁶¹ Carter, Keeping Faith, 410.

⁶² Brzezinski, Handwritten Notes from PRC Meeting, 1 February 1979, Remote Archives Capture Project, NLC-25-112-10-3-6, JCL.

⁶³ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘White Paper on Middle East?’ undated [c. 17 December 1978], FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 160.

⁶⁴ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘Secretary Vance’s Middle East Strategy Paper’, 1 February 1979.

⁶⁵ Edward C. Keefer, Harold Brown: Offsetting the Soviet Military Challenge, 1977–1981, (Washington, DC, 2017), 265.

⁶⁶ See, for example, Department of State to AmEmbassy Tel Aviv, ‘Message From President Carter to Prime Minister Begin on Resuming Middle East Negotiations’, 6 February 1979, 1749Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 174.

⁶⁷ Carter to Brown, Washington, 9 February 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, doc. 19.

⁶⁸ Christian Emery, ‘United States Iran Policy 1979–1980: The Anatomy and Legacy of American Diplomacy’, Diplomacy & Statecraft 24 (2013): 619-639.

⁶⁹ CIA Intelligence Memorandum, ‘Implications of Iran for Middle East Peace Negotiations’, RP M 79–10094, Washington, 16 February 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 177.

⁷⁰ Christopher Dietrich, ‘“We Must Have a Defense Build-up”: The Iranian Revolution, Regional Security, and American Vulnerability’, in Arang Keshavarzian and Ali Mirsepassi, eds., Global 1979: Geographies and Histories of the Iranian Revolution (Cambridge, UK, 2021), 245-289.

⁷¹ Carter to Brown, Washington, 9 February 1979.

⁷² Secretary of State to Multiple Posts, ‘Summary of Secretary Brown’s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Egypt’, 28 February 1979 (State 047733), AAD.

⁷³ Brown to Carter, ‘Middle East Trip Report’, Washington, 19 February 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 178.

⁷⁴ AmEmbassy Jidda to Department of State, ‘Secretary Brown’s Meeting With Crown Prince Fahd’, Jidda, 12 February 1979, 1420Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, doc. 185.

⁷⁵ A stop in Syria was never planned, presumably due to American concerns over Syria’s alliance with Iraq, ties to the Soviets, and resistance to the peace process.

⁷⁶ Oleg Grinevskiĭ, Taĭny sovetskoĭ diplomatii [Secrets of Soviet diplomacy] (Moscow, RU, 2000), 96-113.

⁷⁷ Andrew and Mitrokhin, The KGB and the World, 218. See also Karen N. Bruten$\hat{t}$s, Trid$\hat{t}$satʹ let na staroĭ ploshchadi [Thirty years on the old square] (Moscow, RU, 1998), 427-428.

⁷⁸ US Military Training Mission in Dhahran to Department of Defense, Department of State, and AmEmbassy Jidda, ‘Joint Planning With Saudi Arabia’, Dhahran, 2 March 1979, 1505Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, docs. 269.

⁷⁹ Presidential Determination No. 79–6, ‘Sales of Defense Articles and Defense Services Under the Arms Export Control Act to the Yemen Arab Republic’, 7 March 1979, Federal Register 44, no. 62 (March 29, 1979): 18633.

⁸⁰ For a fuller account, see Benjamin V. Allison, “Jimmy Carter and the Second Yemenite War: A Smaller Shock of 1979?” Wilson Center Sources and Methods (June 28, 2021), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/jimmy-carter-and-second-yemenite-war-smaller-shock-1979.

⁸¹ Fred Halliday, Revolution and Foreign Policy: The Case of South Yemen, 1967–1987 (Cambridge, UK, 1990),

⁸² Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation, 724.

⁸³ Richard Burt, ‘Intervention in Yemen War Signals Foreign Policy Shift’, New York Times (18 March 1979); Sick to Aaron, ‘Conversation with Richard Burt’, 7 March 1979, NSA 15, Box 56, Folder 8, JCL.

⁸⁴ Brzezinski, ‘Consultative Security Framework for the Middle East (U)’, 28 February 1979, US Declassified Documents Online. He drafted another version on 3 March.

⁸⁵ Ibid.

⁸⁶ Ibid.

⁸⁷ Njølstad, ‘Shifting Priorities’, 32.

⁸⁸ Memcon, Carter, Vance, Khalil, Dayan, and Brzezinski, Washington, 25 February 1979, 2:03–2:45 p.m., and Backchannel Message, Brzezinski to Carter and Vance, Cairo, 6 March 1979, 1839Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 183 and 198.

⁸⁹ Backchannel Message, Brzezinski (Cairo) to Carter and Vance (White House), 6 March 1979, 1839Z.

⁹⁰ Strong, Working in the World, 189.

⁹¹ Memcon, ‘President’s Meeting with Prime Minister Begin’, Jerusalem, 11 March 1979, 11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m.; 3:08–3:35 p.m.; 5–5:30 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 204.

⁹² Situation Room to Odom for Brzezinski, 19 March 1979 (SITTO 089), NSA 6, Box 52, Folder 4, JCL.

⁹³ Memcon, ‘Summary of President’s Meeting with Prime Minister Begin’, Washington, 2 March 1979, 10 a.m.–12:40 p.m., and AmEmbassy Cairo to Department of State, ‘Meeting With Sadat—March 4’, Cairo, 4 March 1979, 1536Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 190 and 191.

⁹⁴ Emphasis in original. Handwritten Note, President Carter, undated [c. 5 March 1979], and Backchannel Message, Brzezinski (Cairo) to Carter and Vance (White House), Cairo, 6 March 1979, 1839Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 195 and 198; Memcon, ‘President’s Meeting with Prime Minister Begin’, Jerusalem, 11 March 1979.

⁹⁵ Letter, Brezhnev to Carter, 19 March 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 221.

⁹⁶ CIA Intelligence Memorandum, ‘Possible Arab Acceptance of an Egyptian-Israeli Treaty’, Washington, 27 February 1979, and Department of State to AmEmbassy Amman, ‘Message for King Hussein’, Washington, 7 March 1979, 1646Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 186 and 199.

⁹⁷ Summary of Meetings, Washington, undated [8–13 March 1979], and Memcon, ‘President Carter’s Meeting with President Sadat’, Alexandria, 9 March 1979, 7–8 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 202 and 203.

⁹⁸ CIA Intelligence Memorandum, ‘Arab Reactions’, RPM 79–10152, Washington, 15 March 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 213.

⁹⁹ CIA, ‘Possible Arab Acceptance’, 27 February 1979.

¹⁰⁰ Carter to Hussein, Washington, 16 March 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 215.

¹⁰¹ Turner to Vance, ‘[1½ lines not declassified] Fatah Leader Yasir Arafat’, Washington, 15 March 1979, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 214.

¹⁰² Situation Room to US Liaison Office Riyadh (to Odom for Brzezinski), 17 March 1979 (SITTO 047), NSA 6, Box 52, Folder 3, JCL.

¹⁰³ Memcon, Brzezinski et al. and Saud et al., Riyadh, 17 March 1979, 3:30–5:30 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, XVIII, doc. 188; Memcon, Brzezinski et al. and Fahd et al., Riyadh, 17 March 1979, 6:30–8:20 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 218.

¹⁰⁴ Memcon, Brzezinski et al. and Hussein et al., Amman, 18 March 1979, 3:15–4:30 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 219; Ashton, ‘Taking Friends for Granted,’ 642-643; Nigel Ashton, King Hussein of Jordan: A Political Life (New Haven, CT, 2008), 206-207.

¹⁰⁵ Situation Room to AmEmbassy Cairo (to Odom for Brzezinski), March 18, 1979 (SITTO 077), NSA 6, Box 52, Folder 4, JCL.

¹⁰⁶ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #91,’ 23 March 1979 and attachment, Plains Files, Box 29, Folder 3, JCL.

¹⁰⁷ US Interest Section Baghdad to Secretary of State, ‘Opening of Baghdad Ministerial Conference,’ March 28, 1979 (Baghdad 694), AAD; Editorial Note, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 242; AmEmbassy Jidda to Secretary of State, ‘(C) Baghdad Meeting,’ March 29, 1979 (Jidda 2602), AAD.

¹⁰⁸ Barnett, Dialogues in Arab Politics, 196.

¹⁰⁹ ‘Resolutions Passed at the Conference of Arab Foreign, Economy and Finance Ministers, Baghdad, March 31, 1979’, in ‘Documents and Source Material: Arab Documents on Palestine and the Arab-Israeli Conflict’, Journal of Palestine Studies 8, no. 4 (Summer 1979): 163-167.

¹¹⁰ AmEmbassy Jidda to Secretary of State, ‘Baghdad Conference’, 4 April 1979 (Jidda 2746), AAD.

¹¹¹ ‘Revolutionary Command Council Meeting after the Baghdad Conference of 1979’, 27 March 1979, Cold War International History Project Digital Archive.

¹¹² Barnett, Dialogues in Arab Politics, 200; Ghassan Salame, ‘Inter-Arab Politics: The Return of Geography’, in The Middle East Ten Years After Camp David, ed. William B. Quandt (Washington, DC, 1988), 319-356.

¹¹³ Elie Podeh and Onn Winckler, ‘The Boycott That Never Was: Egypt and the Arab System, 1979–1989’, Durham Middle East Paper 72 (December 2002), 3.

¹¹⁴ Daniel Dishon, ‘Inter-Arab Relations’, Middle East Contemporary Survey, vol. III, 1978–1979 ed. Colin Legume et al. (New York, NY, 1980), 234.

¹¹⁵ ‘Foreign Minister Khaddam Interviewed on Mideast Situation’, FBIS v. 4 Apr 79 (2 April 1979), NSA 25, Box 88, Folder 9, JCL.

¹¹⁶ AmEmbassy Moscow to Secretary of State, ‘Gromyko Takes Tough Approach in Damascus’, 26 March 1979 (Moscow 7372), AAD; Grinevskiĭ, Taĭny sovetskoĭ diplomatii, 228-232.

¹¹⁷ US Interest Section Baghdad to Secretary of State, ‘Gromyko Visit to Syria: Iraqi Perspective’, 28 March 1979 (Baghdad 689), AAD.

¹¹⁸ AmEmbassy Algiers to Secretary of State, ‘Syria, Iraq and Other Middle Eastern Topics’, 29 March 1979 (Algiers 911), AAD.

¹¹⁹ Seale with McConville, Asad of Syria, 311; Salame, ‘The Return of Geography’, 333.

¹²⁰ US Translation, Brezhnev to Carter, 13 April 1979, and Carter to Brezhnev, 20 April 1979, Plains Files, Box 17, Folder 12, JCL; Secretary of State to US Mission in the Sinai, et al., ‘INTSUM 775—March 26, 1979’, 27 March 1979 (State 75636), and AmEmbassy Moscow to Secretary of State, ‘(U) Senior Soviet Apparatchik on Detente: Healthy in Europe, Hurting Elsewhere’, 30 March 1979 (Moscow 7891), AAD.

¹²¹ State 75636; Embassy Cairo to Department of State, ‘An Overview of Destabilizing Forces in Egypt’, Cairo, 27 April 1979, 1855Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 247.

¹²² For example, US-Libyan relations in this period were largely confined to difficulties regarding export licenses and vehicle sales. See Ronald Bruce St. John, Libya and the United States: Two Centuries of Strife (Philadelphia, PA, 2002), 111; Owen to Brzezinski (and attachment), 24 May 1979, NSA 25, Box 61, Folder 2, JCL; and Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #99’, 1 June 1979, Plains Files, Box 28, Folder 4, JCL.

¹²³ David M. Wight, Oil Money: Middle East Petrodollars and the Transformation of US Empire, 1967–1988 (Ithaca, NY, 2021), 200-208.

¹²⁴ Jim Hoagland, ‘U.S. Sees Signs Saudi Leadership May Be Shifting; Power of Prince Fahd, a Key to U.S. Policy, Seen Waning’, Washington Post, 15 April 1979.

¹²⁵ Two untitled sets of notes, undated [23 April 1979], NSA 15, Box 46, Folder 6, JCL. See Secretary of State (Christopher) to AmEmbassy Belgrade (Newsom), ‘US-Saudi Relations’, 25 April 1979 (State 103580), AAD; and ‘Saudi uncertainties’, Foreign Report, 25 April 1979.

¹²⁶ Jim Hoagland, ‘Saudis Break Cairo Ties But No Aid Cutoffs Seen’, Washington Post, 24 April 1979; Department of State to AmEmbassy London, ‘Letter to Prince Saud’, Washington, 29 April 1979, 1721Z, and US Liaison Office Riyad to Department of State, ‘Saudi Arabia Withdraws Offer of Funding of F-5s for Egypt’, Riyadh, 7 May 1979, 1055Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 248 and 251.

¹²⁷ ‘Islamic Conference Suspends Egyptians’, New York Times, 10 May 1979; AmEmbassy Rabat to Secretary of State, ‘Moroccan Strategy for Fez Islamic FonMins Conference’, 4 May 1979 (Rabat 3054), AAD.

¹²⁸ Minutes of a Special Coordination Committee Meeting, ‘Middle East Security Issues’, Washington, 11 May 1979, 3:30–4:20 p.m., and Summary, ‘PRC Meeting on Saudi Arabia’, 27 April 1979, 3–4:30 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, docs. 23 and 190.

¹²⁹ Department of State to AmEmbassy Jidda, ‘Letter to Khalid’, Washington, 11 May 1979, 2249Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 254; Secretary of State to AmEmbassy Cairo, ‘Saudi-Egyptian Relations’, 12 May 1979 (State 120533), AAD; Christopher S. Wren, ‘Saudis Scuttle a Billion-Dollar Arms Consortium With Factories in Egypt’, New York Times, 15 May 1979.

¹³⁰ Carter, ‘Telephone conversation with President Sadat’, 25 May 1979, and Telcon, Carter and Sadat, 25 May 1979, 8:40-8:42 a.m., Plains Files, Box 1, Folder 25, JCL; US Consulate Alexandria to Department of State, ‘Alexandria Negotiations: Discussion of U.S. Role,’ Alexandria, 12 June 1979, 0530Z, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, doc. 261.

¹³¹ Brzezinski to Brown, ‘Military Assistance for Egypt,’ Washington, 12 June 1979, Sadat to Carter, undated, and Memcon, Carter et al. and Mubarak, Washington, 11 June 1979, 5:30–6:20 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. IX.2, docs. 262, 259, and 260.

¹³² Andreĭ Mikhaĭlovich Aleksandrov-Agentov, Ot Kollontaĭ do Gorbacheva. Vospominani$\hat{i}$a diplomata, sovetnika A. A. Gromyko, pomoshchnika L. I. Brezhneva, $\ddot{I}$u. V. Andropova, K. U. Chernenko i M. S. Gorbacheva [From Kollontaĭ to Gorbachev: Reminiscences of the diplomat and advisor A. A. Gromyko, aide to L. I. Brezhnev, Yu. V. Andropov, K. U. Chernenko, and M. S. Gorbachev] (Moscow, RU, 1994), 237-238; Grinevskiĭ, Taĭny sovetskoĭ diplomatii, 258-263.

¹³³ Memcon, ‘Fourth Plenary Meeting International Issues’, Vienna, 17 June 1979, 5:30–7:20 p.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. VI, doc. 204.

¹³⁴ Memcon, ‘Carter-Brezhnev Private Meeting’, Vienna, 18 June 1979, 10–11:30 a.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. VI, doc. 206.

¹³⁵ Allison, “Through the Cracks of Détente,” 118-182.

¹³⁶ Jeremy Pressman, ‘Egypt, Israel, and the United States at the Autonomy Talks, 1979’, Diplomacy & Statecraft 33, no. 3 (2022): 543-565.

¹³⁷ Anziska, ‘Autonomy as State Prevention’; Anziska, Preventing Palestine, 135-136; Madfai, Jordan, the United States and the Middle East Peace Process, 49-50; Strieff, Jimmy Carter and the Middle East, 161-180.

¹³⁸ Brzezinski to Carter, ‘NSC Weekly Report #101’’ 22 June 1979, Plains File, Box 28, Folder 4, JCL.

¹³⁹ Minutes of Policy Review Committee Meetings, ‘Middle East Security and US Military Presence (S)’, Washington, 21 June 1979, 1:30–2:30 p.m. and 22 June 1979, 9:15–10 a.m., FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, doc. 26. See also CIA, ‘Changes in the Middle East: Moscow’s Perceptions and Options’, PA 79-10230, June 1979, CIA FOIA.

¹⁴⁰ See, for example, Archer Allen Montague, ‘A More Muscular Foreign Policy: Saudi Arabia and the Militarization of US Middle East Policy, 1979–80’ (Master’s thesis, North Carolina State University, 2007); and John Bernell White, Jr., ‘Breaking the Strategic Glass: The Carter Administration and Oman, 1977–1980’, Journal of Cold War Studies (forthcoming).

¹⁴¹ Minutes of PRC Meetings, ‘Middle East Security and US Military Presence’, 21 June 1979, 1:30–2:30 p.m. and 22 June 1979, 9:15–10 a.m.

¹⁴² Emery, ‘United States Iran Policy,’ 621.

¹⁴³ Address by President Carter on the State of the Union Before a Joint Session of Congress, Washington, 23 January 1980, FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. I, doc. 138; FRUS, 1977–1980, vol. XVIII, docs. 45-48.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Kent State University Department of History.