Environmental security intelligence: the role of US intelligence agencies and science advisory groups in anticipating climate security threats

ABSTRACT

Science advisory groups have long played significant roles in federal policy- and decision-making. This article examines the history and importance of science advisory groups in conducting research and advising government administrations on matters of climate change risks and environmental security. Climate change will continue to act as a threat multiplier, amplifying these risks and their effects on security and society. The government science advisory group MEDEA and its contributions to environmental research and national, societal, and environmental security analysis are presented as a model of partnership between the scientific and intelligence communities. The history, research, and environmental expertise of the MEDEA program are discussed in the security context, including an examination of its relationship with the intelligence community. Finally, historical examples are provided to suggest how future science advisory groups can provide informed guidance and contribute to federal security objectives.

KEYWORDS:

• MEDEA
• climate change
• environmental intelligence
• environmental security
• remote sensing
• science advisory groups
• threat multiplier

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ MEDEA, Environment and National Security: Key Issues for the New Administration (December 2000).

² President’s Science Advisory Committee, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment (Washington, DC: The White House, 1965).

³ Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Estimate: Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security through 2040 (2021).

⁴ Loch K. Johnson, “The Greening of Intelligence,” in Bombs, Bugs, Drugs, and Thugs: Intelligence and America’s Quest for Security (New York: New York University Press, 2000), 50-71.

⁵ D. James Baker (Former Administrator of NOAA and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 14 November 2018, Washington, DC.

⁶ D. James Baker and Linda Zall, “The MEDEA Program: Opening a Window into New Earth Science Data,” Oceanography 33, no. 1 (2020).

⁷ William Schlesinger (President Emeritus of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 16 April 2018, telephone.

⁸ John A. Orcutt (Distinguished Professor of Geophysics at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 30 October 2018, telephone.

⁹ Linda Zall (Central Intelligence Agency (ret.) and Former Director of the MEDEA Program), interview by Evan Barnard, 28 October 2018, telephone.

¹⁰ Robert Bindschadler (NASA Emeritus Scientist and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 13 November 2018, telephone.

¹¹ Anthony Janetos (Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 30 November 2018, telephone.

¹² Thomas B. Mccord, John Morris, David Persing, Edward Tagliaferri, Cliff Jacobs, Richard Spalding, Louann Grady and Ronald Schmidt, “Detection of a Meteoroid Entry into the Earth’s Atmosphere on 1 February 1994,” Journal of Geophysical Research 100, no. E2 (1995).

¹³ Thomas McCord (Director and Senior Scientist at the Bear Fight Institute, Former NASA Scientist, and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 30 November 2018, telephone.

¹⁴ William H. Schlesinger and Nicholas Gramenopoulos, “Archival Photographs Show No Climate-Induced Changes in Woody Vegetation in the Sudan, 1943-1994,” Global Change Biology 2, no. 2 (1996); F. Fetterer and Norbert Untersteiner, “Melt Pond Coverage Statistics from Classified Satellite Data,” (IEEE, 1998).

¹⁵ National Reconnaissance Office, “President orders declassification of historic satellite imagery citing value of photography to environmental science,” 24 February 1995.

¹⁶ National Research Council, Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Imagery Derived Products (Washington, DC: 2009).

¹⁷ Paul Berkman, “Evolution of Science Diplomacy and Its Local-Global Applications,” European Foreign Affairs Review 24 (2019).

¹⁸ Scott Pace, Kevin M. O’Connell and Beth E. Lachman, Using Intelligence Data for Environmental Needs: Balancing National Interests (Washington, DC: Rand Corporation, 1997).

¹⁹ Robert Bindschadler and Patricia Vornberger, “Changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Since 1963 from Declassified Satellite Photography,” Science 279, no. 5351 (1998).

²⁰ John T. Connor, Memorandum for the President: The Weather Services of the Environmental Science Services Administration, (Washington DC: 13 September 1965).

²¹ Michael Matson and Jeff Dozier, “Identification of Subresolution High Temperature Sources Using a Thermal IR Sensor,” Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 47, no. 9 (1981).

²² Rick Spinrad (NOAA Administrator and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 29 October 2018, telephone.

²³ John Deutch, “The Environment on the Intelligence Agenda” (lecture, World Affairs Council, Los Angeles, CA, 25 July 1996).

²⁴ A. Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov, Janin Guzman-Morales, Daniel A. Bishop, Jennifer K. Balch and Denis P. Lettenmaier, “Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California,” Earth’s Future 7(2019).

²⁵ “The Complexities of Wildfires,” Nature Geosciences 12(2019).

²⁶ Matt McDonald, “After the Fires? Climate Change and Security in Australia,” Australian Journal of Political Science (2020).

²⁷ Josh Blumenfeld, “Wildfires Can’t Hide from Earth Observing Satellites,” EarthData, https://Earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/articles/feature-articles/wildfire-articles/wildfires-cant-hide-from-Earth-observing-satellites.

²⁸ Jeff Dozier (Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of California at Santa Barbara and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 8 January 2019, Skype.

²⁹ National Research Council, Monitoring Climate Change Impacts: Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems (Washington, DC: 2010).

³⁰ National Research Council, Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 2010).

³¹ JASON, Methods for Remote Determination of CO₂ Emissions (McLean, VA: MITRE Corporation, 2011).

³² Climate Security Advisory Group, A Climate Security Plan for America: A Presidential Plan for Combatting the Security Risks of Climate Change (Center for Climate and Security, September 2019).

³³ National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis (Washington, DC: National Academies, 2013).

³⁴ Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon and Renat Perelet, Defining Environmental Security: Implications for the U.S. Army (Army Environmental Policy Institute, 1998).

³⁵ Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, “On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict,” International Security 16, no. 2 (1991); Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases,” International Security 19, no. 1 (1994).

³⁶ National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress.

³⁷ Ibid.

³⁸ Aaron T. Wolf, “Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways,” Water Policy 1(1998); Hussam Hussein, “Politics of the Dead Sea Canal: a Historical Review of the Evolving Discourses, Interests, and Plans,” Water International 42, no. 5 (2017).

³⁹ Megan M. Coffer, Blake A. Schaeffer, John A. Darling, Erin A. Urquhart and Wilson B. A. Saals, “Quantifying National and Regional Cyanobacterial Occurrence in US Lakes Using Satellite Remote Sensing,” Ecological Indicators 111(2020); Birgit Heim, Hedi Oberhaensli, Susanne Fietz and Hermann Kaufmann, “Variation in Lake Bikal’s Phytoplankton Distribution and Fluvial Input Assessed by Sea WiFS Satellite Data,” Global and Planetary Change 46(2005).

⁴⁰ National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress.

⁴¹ Office of Political Research, Potential Implications of Trends in World Population, Food Production, and Climate (Directorate of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1974).

⁴² Directorate of Intelligence, Soviet Climate Change: Implications for Grain Production (Central Intelligence Agency, 1985).

⁴³ Ibid.

⁴⁴ Mak Sithirith, “Water Governance in Cambodia: From Centralized Water Governance to Farmer Water User Community,” Resources 6, no. 44 (2017).

⁴⁵ National Foreign Assessment Center, Bleak Prospects for Meeting Kampuchean Food Needs (Central Intelligence Agency, 1980); Randle C. DeFalco, “Justice and Starvation in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge Famine,” Cambodia Law & Policy Journal 45, no. 2 (2014).

⁴⁶ Corrine Coakley, Mandy Munro-Stasiuk, Sokvisal Kimsroy, Chhunly Chhay and Stian Rice, “Extracting Khmer Rouge Irrigation Networks from pre-Landsat 4 Satellite Imagery Using Vegetation Indices,” Royal Geographic Society 52, no. 2 (2019); Stian Rice, James Tyner, Mandy Munro‐Stasiuk, Sokvisal Kimsroy and Corrine Coakley, “The hydro‐logic of genocide: Remaking land, water, and bodies in democratic Kampuchea, 1975–1979,” Area 52, no. 2 (2020).

⁴⁷ Nyda Chhinh, Hoeurn Cheb and Naret Heng, “Drought Risk in Cambodia: Assessing Costs and a Potential Solution,” Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development 11, no. 2 (2014); Subir Bairagi, Ashok K. Mishra and Alvaro Durand-Morat, “Climate risk management strategies and food security: Evidence from Cambodian rice farmers,” Food Policy 95(2020).

⁴⁸ Center for Strategic and International Studies, Climate Change and Food Security: A Test of U.S. Leadership in a Fragile World (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2019).

⁴⁹ National Intelligence Council, China: Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Report (2009).

⁵⁰ Ibid.

⁵¹ Richard P. Thomas, Stephen H. Conrad, David M. Jeppesen and Dennis Engi, Understanding the Dynamics of Water Availability and Use in China (Sandia National Laboratories, 1997); Stephen H. Conrad, Thomas E. Drennen, Dennis Engi, David L Harris, David M. Jeppesen and Richard P. Thomas, Modeling the Infrastructure Dynamics of China: Water, Agriculture, Energy, and Greenhouse Gases (Sandia National Laboratories, 1998).

⁵² Xing Wei, Zhao Zhang, Peijun Shi, Pin Wang, Yi Chen, Xiao Song and Fulu Tao, “Is Yield Increase Sufficient to Achieve Food Security in China?” PLoS ONE 14, no. 8 (2015).

⁵³ Boqiang Qin, Hans W. Paerl, Justin D. Brookes, Jianguo Liu, Erik Jeppesen, Guangwei Zhu, Yunlin Zhang, Hai Xu, Kun Shi and Jianming Deng, “Why Lake Taihu Continues to Be Plagued with Cyanobacterial Blooms Through 10 Years (2007–2017) Efforts,” Science Bulletin 64, no. 6 (2019).

⁵⁴ Carly A. Phillips, Astrid Caldas, Rachel Cleetus, Kristina A. Dahl, Juan Declet-Barreto, Rachel Licker, L. Delta Merner, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Alexandra L. Phelan, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Shuchi Talati, Christopher H. Trisos and Colin J. Carlson, “Compound Climate Risks in the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Nature Climate Change 10(2020).

⁵⁵ Michael McElroy and D. James Baker, Climate Extremes: Recent Trends with Implications for National Security (2012).

⁵⁶ Elisavet Parselia, Charalampos Kontoes, Alexia Tsouni, Christos Hadjichristodoulou, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Gkikas Magiorkinis and Nikolaos I. Stilianakis, “Satellite Earth Observation Data in Epidemiological Modeling of Malaria, Dengue and West Nile Virus: A Scoping Review,” Remote Sensing 11, no. 16 (2019).

⁵⁷ Institute of Medicine, Global Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Understanding the Contributions to Infectious Disease Emergence (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2008).

⁵⁸ Joshua J. Steffan, Jade A. Derby and Eric C. Brevik, “Soil Pathogens that May Potentially Cause Pandemics, Including SARS Coronaviruses,” Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health (2020).

⁵⁹ Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, National Intelligence Estimate: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States (2000); Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (2021).

⁶⁰ Paul R. Epstein, “Cholera and the Environment: An Introduction to Climate Change,” The PSR Quarterly 2, no. 3 (1992); Sara L. M. Trærup, Ramon A. Ortiz and Anil Markandya, “The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 8, no. 12 (2011).

⁶¹ James M. Shultz, James P. Kossin, Attila Hertelendy, Fredrick Burkle, Craig Fugate, Ronald Sherman, Johnna Bakalar, Kim Berg, Alessandra Maggioni, Zelde Espinel, Duane E. Sands, Regina C. Larocque, Renee N. Salas and Sandro Galea, “Mitigating the Twin Threats of Climate-Driven Atlantic Hurricanes and COVID-19 Transmission,” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 14, no. 4 (2020).

⁶² National Research Council, Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 2012).

⁶³ Ibid.

⁶⁴ Bruce Molnia (Senior Science Advisor for National Civil Applications at USGS and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 19 November 2018, telephone.

⁶⁵ Shakib Atef, Fahima Sadeqinazhad, Faisal Farjaad and M. Amatya, “Water conflict management and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Journal of Hydrology 570(2019).

⁶⁶ Dechen Palmo, “Tibet”s Rivers Will Determine Asia’s Future,” The Diplomat, 1 November 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/tibets-rivers-will-determine-asias-future/.

⁶⁷ Richard Matthew, “Climate Change and Water Security in the Himalayan Region,” Asia Policy 16(2013).

⁶⁸ J. M. Maurer, J. M.Schaefer, S. Rupper and A. Corley, “Acceleration of Ice Loss Across the Himalayas over the Past 40 Years,” Science Advances 5, no. 6 (2019).

⁶⁹ National Research Council, Himalayan Glaciers.

⁷⁰ Spinrad, interview.

⁷¹ MEDEA, Scientific Utility of Naval Environmental Data: A MEDEA Special Task Force Report (MEDEA, 1995).

⁷² Baker and Zall, “The Medea Program.”

⁷³ National Research Council, Sea Ice Imagery.

⁷⁴ Navy Task Force Climate Change, The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030 (United States Navy Chief of Naval Operations, 2014).

⁷⁵ National Research Council, National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces (Washington, DC: 2011).

⁷⁶ Navy Task Force Climate Change, Navy Arctic Roadmap.

⁷⁷ USCG Office of Waterways and Ocean Policy, Major Icebreakers of the World, (United States Coast Guard, 2017).

⁷⁸ Paul Berkman, “Science Diplomacy and Its Engine of Informed Decisionmaking: Operating through Our Global Pandemic with Humanity,” The Hague Journal of Diplomacy 15, no. 3 (2020).

⁷⁹ Jeffrey T. Richelson, “Scientists in Black,” Scientific American 278, no. 2 (1998).

⁸⁰ Michael Carlowicz, “New Data from Cold War Treasure Trove,” Eos 78, no. 9 (1997); Paul Gaffney (Vice Admiral (ret), President Emeritus of Monmouth University, and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 11 December 2018, telephone.

⁸¹ Robert Corell (Former Assistant Director of the National Science Foundation for Geoscience and MEDEA Member), interview by Evan Barnard, 11 December 2018, telephone.

⁸² GlobalSecurity.org, “Chelyabinsk-65,” https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/chelya/chelyabinsk-65_nuc.htm.

⁸³ Deutch, “Intelligence Agenda.”

⁸⁴ David Hay-Edie, The Military’s Impact on the Environment: A Neglected Aspect of the Sustainable Development Debate (Geneva: International Peace Bureau, 2002).

⁸⁵ Orcutt, interview.

⁸⁶ Tobias Knobloch, Jacek Beldowski, Claus Böttcher, Martin Söderström, Niels-Peter Rühl and Jens Sternheim, Chemical Munitions Dumped in the Baltic Sea: Report of the ad hoc Expert Group to Update the Existing Information on Dumped Chemical Munitions in the Baltic Sea (HELCOM, 2013).

⁸⁷ MEDEA, Ocean Dumping of Chemical Munitions: Environmental Effects in Arctic Seas (MEDEA, 1997).

⁸⁸ Jacob Darwin Hamblin, “Environmental Diplomacy in the Cold War: The Disposal of Radioactive Waste at Sea during the 1960s,” The International History Review 24, no. 2 (2002).

⁸⁹ Ibid.

⁹⁰ Department of Defense, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap (2014).

⁹¹ National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress.

⁹² Zall, interview.

⁹³ National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress.

⁹⁴ CNA Military Advisory Board, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA: CNA Corporation, 2007).

⁹⁵ CNA Military Advisory Board, National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA: CNA Corporation, 2014).

⁹⁶ Zall, interview.

⁹⁷ Collin P. Kelley, Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager and Yochanan Kushnir, “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought,” PNAS 112, no. 11 (2015).

⁹⁸ U.S. Congress, “Climate Security Advisory Council,” Sessional Papers, War and National Defense, 19 December 2019, ch. 44.I, sec. 3060.

⁹⁹ Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Climate Change and International Response.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Evan Barnard

Evan Barnard is a graduate student (Masters) at the School of International Service at American University and the Department of Environment and Development at the United Nations’ University for Peace. He studies climate security and the nexus of anthropogenic environmental change and human society. He studied international affairs and ecology as a Bernard Ramsey Honors Scholar and Honors International Scholar at the University of Georgia. His research focuses on modern environmental security intelligence risks and their basis in the historical development of climate change inquiry and understanding.

Loch K. Johnson

Loch K. Johnson is Regents Professor Emeritus of International Affairs at the University of Georgia. He is the author of over 200 articles and thirty books on U.S. national security, including Spy Watching: Intelligence Accountability in the United States (2018) and National Security Intelligence, 2d ed. (2017). Professor Johnson has been a Congressional Fellow, a Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar, and Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Yale University and Oxford University. In 2012, the Southeastern Conference selected him as its inaugural ‘Professor of the Year’; and, in 2014, the Intelligence Studies Section of the International Studies Association named him a ‘Distinguished Scholar.’ At the University of Georgia, he led the founding of School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA).

James Porter

James Porter is the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor of Ecology, Emeritus at the University of Georgia. He has authored three books and published more than 120 articles in academic journals such as Science, Nature, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. His research interests span population and disease ecology, ecology of coral reefs, global climate change, and the ecosystem and human health consequences of underwater munitions. He has testified before US Congress multiple times, including regarding munitions contamination on Puerto Rican coral reefs. His current research focuses on coral health and disease.