Chaotic characterization and chaotic prediction modelling of HFSWR ionospheric echoes excited by typhoon

ABSTRACT

This research explores the intricate-coupling relationship between typhoons and the ionosphere by the high-frequency surface wave radar’s (HFSWR) over-the-horizon capabilities. This letter describes the gravity wave features in travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) and ionospheric drift information. Further discussion is raised on the chaotic properties of gravity wave features using the Lyapunov exponents and chaotic attractors, particularly as they are influenced by typhoon. To predict these gravity wave features more accurately, a new model is developed by synergizing phase space reconstruction theory and statistical learning theory, a chaotic prediction model for gravity wave features constructed on a third-order Volterra filter. The experimental findings confirm that the gravity waves features detected via HFSWR present the hyperchaotic behaviour. More importantly, the innovative gravity wave prediction model based on chaotic attractor can capture the dynamics of the original chaotic system. Notably, the model’s prediction accuracy has been improved by 98.6% after the introduction of phase space reconstruction modelling.

KEYWORDS:

• High-frequency radar
• travelling ionospheric disturbance
• typhoon
• chaos
• gravity wave

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62031015 and Mount Taishan Scholar Distinguished Expert Plan [20190957].