Disaster averted: Community resilience in the face of a catastrophic flood

ABSTRACT

In the spring of 2009, the Fargo, North Dakota, metropolitan area had 5 days to lay millions of sandbags to avoid devastation from record flooding of the Red River of the North. The community was able to successfully mitigate the flooding and escape potentially catastrophic economic, physical, and mental health consequences. We hypothesized that Fargo flood protection efforts reflected the community resilience factors proposed by Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, et al. (2008): citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, effective organizational linkages, ongoing psychosocial support, and strong civic leadership in the face of rapidly changing circumstances. This community case report utilizes an extensive review of available sources, including news reports, government documents, research articles, and personal communication. Results demonstrate that Fargo's response to the threat of catastrophic flooding was consistent with Norris et al.'s (2008) factors of community resilience. Furthermore, success in 2009 carried over into future flood prevention and response efforts, as well as a structured approach to building psychological resilience. This case study contributes to the literature on community resilience by describing a community's successful efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic disaster.

KEYWORDS:

• community mobilization
• community resilience
• disaster risk reduction
• flood disaster
• mitigation
• psychosocial
• resilience

Floods are deadly, destructive, and costly. The single deadliest natural disaster recorded in the past century was the China flood of 1931, resulting in 3.7 million deaths.⁹ During 2010, China experienced massive spring flooding that affected 134 million persons, Pakistan's monsoonal flooding displaced 22 million persons, and historic flooding occurred in such geographically dispersed locales as Sri Lanka, Australia, Colombia, and Brazil.⁹

Flooding also may be the major contributor to death, injury, and destruction in natural disasters that are not officially classified as floods, such as tsunamis and hurricanes. In 2004, the Southeast Asia tsunami claimed almost 300,000 lives along the coastlines of more than a dozen nations as powerful ocean waves crashed onshore.¹⁴ In 2011, the Great East Japan earthquake generated a tsunami that killed almost 19,000 persons. Similarly, hurricanes and typhoons are best known for their ferocious cyclonic winds, yet produce more deaths due to storm surge and inland flooding than deaths due to wind-related structural collapses. Hurricane Katrina represents a powerful case in point.

Psychosocial consequences of disaster trauma are recognized to be among the most long-term and debilitating outcomes.^16,33 One of the strongest predictors of the severity of psychological reactions is the degree of exposure to the forces of harm.^15,23 As a case example, most of the mortality, morbidity, displacement, economic costs, and psychological impact of 2005 Hurricane Katrina in the southern US was associated with the flooding of New Orleans after the levees breeched, submerging much of the city and entrapping thousands of residents. Psychological effects persisted after the waters receded; the death rate increased by 50 percent the following year, with concomitant increases in PTSD, suicide, severe mental illness, substance use and other high-risk behaviors.^11,34

When a community is facing a catastrophic flood event, there are realistic concerns about potential loss of life, significant economic impact, and negative psychological sequelae. However, in contrast to most disasters, seasonal river floods are predictable and in some cases, with coordinated community mobilization, flood damage can be prevented or mitigated. In the present study, we examine the extent to which mounting a successful “flood fight” exemplifies community resilience.

Community resilience

Resilience involves the ability to make a positive adaptation to environmental stress, and to maintain psychological health despite exposure to adverse circumstances.¹⁰ Psychological theorists and researchers have conceptualized resilience in various ways: a set of stress-protective factors and attributes, a process of developing skills and strategies to cope with adversity, and a motivational force that contributes to personal growth through adversity.²¹ The term resilience not only refers to the ability to “bounce back” and recover from difficult experiences,¹² but also to the capacity to withstand adversity and to sustain emotional and physical wellbeing in the face of challenging events such as natural disasters.³⁷

Youngs and O'Neill³⁶ examined how civic leaders employ resilience strategies to help their communities respond to and recover from natural disasters. These researchers studied 2 small cities in the Upper Midwest which faced catastrophic flooding of the Red River of the North in 1997. One city (Breckenridge, Minnesota) put forth a valiant effort but was inundated by floodwaters and suffered widespread damage to homes, businesses, and public infrastructure. The other city (Drayton, North Dakota) successfully diked and thereby avoided a significant flood impact. A decade later, civic leaders active in the 1997 flood response were asked to recall their experiences and to state what advice they would offer to other communities facing a similar disaster. The majority (> 90%) of leaders' responses fit neatly into 5 hypothesized categories of resilience strategies: fostering hope and optimism, maintaining a realistic perspective, taking decisive action, accepting support and help from others, and engaging in self-discovery.³⁶ Regardless of whether respondents were focusing on the successful initial flood response (in Drayton, North Dakota), or on long-term flood recovery (in Breckenridge, Minnesota), the same resilience principles emerged. Representative examples of resilience strategies suggested by civic leaders are listed in Table 1.

Table 1. Resilience strategies and responses from civic leaders after a flood disaster.

Resilience Strategies*	Responses from Civic Leaders
Foster Hope and Optimism	General optimism (e.g., “it does get better”) Focused optimism (e.g., hope that mitigation will work)
Maintain a Realistic Perspective	Task patience (e.g., recovery is a long process) Emotional patience (e.g., “hang in there and be patient”)
Take Decisive Action	Recovery goals (e.g., clean up, mitigate) Coordination (e.g., coordinate volunteers) Resource utilization (e.g., apply for federal assistance)
Accept Help from Others	Instrumental support (e.g., “take all the help you can get”) Social support (e.g., stay united, work together) Emotional support (e.g., take advantage of counseling)
Engage in Self-discovery	Resource knowledge (e.g., collect procedural information) Vulnerability (e.g., “it is hard to fight Mother Nature”) Meaning (e.g., find out “what your community is made of”)

Note. *Adapted from Youngs, G.A., & O'Neill, H.K. (2008)³⁶

The concept of resilience can be extended from an individual's or leader's perspective to apply to an entire community's effort to respond to disaster.²⁷ Community resilience has been defined by Pfefferbaum and colleagues¹⁹ as “the ability of community members to take meaningful, deliberate, collective action to remedy the impact of a problem, including the ability to interpret the environment, intervene, and move on.” Community resilience relies upon pre-existing adaptive capacities (e.g., economic development, social capital, information and communication, and community competence) that can be mobilized during a disaster. Resilient communities provide strong civic leadership, involve citizens in mitigation activities, create organizational linkages to enhance disaster resources, and sustain psychosocial support during the crisis.¹⁷ These attributes are particularly helpful when facing a natural disaster that is predictable and potentially controllable, such as a river flood.

2009 river flood event

The Red River Valley of the North is a basin, the remnant of the former glacial Lake Agassiz, formed 10,000 years ago. The Red River of the North flows north, originating in southern North Dakota and flowing past the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota, and Winnipeg, Canada, before eventually emptying into Hudson Bay (Fig. 1). In years marked by a combination of heavy snow, spring precipitation and high water tables, the drainage of water throughout this shallow saucer-shaped valley is primed to produce major flooding.

Figure 1. Red River of the North. Source: Karl Musser, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1677923.

The past 2 decades have reflected a very wet climactic cycle in the Red River Valley with 18 consecutive years of significant flooding since 1993, compared to 29 floods in the preceding 90 years.²⁶ Most dramatic was the 1997 Red River “flood of the century,” resulting in catastrophic damage to Grand Forks, North Dakota, which necessitated the largest pre-Katrina disaster evacuation in US history, as well as significant flooding in Fargo. The economic impact to the Red River Valley basin exceeded $3.5 billion. The 1997 experience propelled significant mitigation projects and community activation during subsequent annual floods, leading to successful outcomes.

In 2009, the city of Fargo was again faced with a potentially catastrophic record flood.²⁶ Beginning on March 20, 2009, the Red River exceeded the 18-foot flood stage threshold and flooding persisted for 61 days, including 32 days in “major flood stage” of over 30 feet.²² The river crested at 40.82 feet, the highest water level ever recorded in Fargo,¹ generating considerable stress as to whether the sandbagging could create barriers high enough to outpace the river rise. In 2009, there were 2 separate crests 19 days apart, maintaining a constant psychological tension regarding whether the sandbag fortifications would “hold” throughout this prolonged period.

Flood mitigation is time-urgent and labor-intensive, consisting primarily of manual “sandbagging” operations and construction of earthen dikes and barricades along river banks and around individual homes and structures. Because of the impossibility of creating a complete “seal,” sandbag levees must be continuously monitored, patched, and repaired, accompanied by continuous pumping of water that seeps through the fortifications.

During 2009, the flood mitigation efforts in Fargo (population: 90,000) represented the combined efforts of 85,000 volunteers, filling and stacking sandbags and staffing the levees. Over 8.5 million sandbags were filled and deployed, the majority within a 5 day period (Figs. 2-4). The outcome of this coordinated volunteer effort, relying on the dedicated effort of local citizens and supplemented by the labor of thousands of volunteers from area towns, schools, and colleges, was that most of Fargo was spared from flooding.

Figure 2. In Fargo, North Dakota, the spring flood threat involves overland flooding at a time of sub-freezing temperatures and periodic blizzard conditions. Search and rescue teams patrol the frozen Red River of the North. Source: Cass County, N.D., March 30, 2009 –Cass County Sheriff's Dept., US. Fish and Wildlife and local Search and Rescue volunteers check on isolated residents in remote farm communities along the Wild Rice river. Photo by Andrea Booher/FEMA - Location: Cass County, ND. http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/images/55209.

Figure 3. Fargo, North Dakota's “flood fighters” in action, filling sandbags in the Fargo Dome during the peak river rise in 2009. Photo by Andrea Booher/FEMA. http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/images/55263.

Figure 4. Sandbags, filled indoors, were rushed to the banks of the Red River of the North to construct dikes to hold back the rising water levels. Photo by David Shultz.

The Red River flood of 2009 provided an opportunity to observe the actions taken by the leaders and citizens of Fargo, North Dakota, that contributed to the city's success in averting a major natural disaster. Specifically, we predicted that there would be strong evidence for each of the following community resilience factors during the flood response: strong civic leadership in the face of a changing disaster situation, citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, organizational linkages that allowed coordination of disaster resources among response entities, and ongoing psychosocial support for the impacted population.

Method

This community case report synthesizes information from city, county, and state government sources, archives of media coverage, interviews with key informants, personal experiences of 2 authors, and a focused scientific literature review. Only information specifically pertaining to the spring flood of 2009 is included in this study. Although the flood affected multiple communities within the Red River basin, information included in this case report is specific to Fargo, North Dakota, and the surrounding metropolitan area unless otherwise noted.

Information collected from multiple sources was examined for 2 purposes. First, data were collated to construct the hazard profile of the event, following the method established by Shultz.^24-26 Second, data were gathered from multiple sources to determine the extent to which the hypothesized principles of community resilience were displayed by citizens and leaders of Fargo during the 2009 Red River flood.

Results

Hazard and flood profiles

Table 2 presents the hazard profile for the 2009 Fargo flood in terms of the disaster classification and explication of the flood magnitude, place, and time characteristics. Note that both the peak river flow and the flood level were the highest on record. Without effective mitigation at the time of the flood, it is estimated that millions of dollars in losses would have been incurred.

Table 2. Red River flood of 2009 hazard profile

Disaster Type	Definition	Emergency/Disaster
	Initial Event Classification	Natural Disaster/Hydrological/River Flooding
	Forces of Harm	Red River flows north. In spring, overland winter snow and ice thaws and flows toward the frozen river. Very flat land gradient causes water to flow outside the river banks for long periods.^3
Magnitude and Severity	Flood stage/river flow (cfs)	Peak flow: 29,500 cubic feet/second on March 28, 2009 (highest on record^32). This flow was equivalent to the average annual flow every 5 hours.
	Property/agricultural damage	Damages: 90% of the Red River basin land is used for agricultural purposes. Prevented 1.7 million acres of land from being planted, an estimated loss of $490 million. 78,000 calves, 19,100 cows, and 3,000 other farm and ranch animals died in the Red River Valley, an estimated loss of $50 million.(^3) Over 2,000 vulnerable people were evacuated from the Fargo area, including about 1,200 hospital patients and nursing home residents.^13 Damage averted: Housing units in Fargo in 2009: 41,200 houses. Median value of owner-occupied housing units in 2000: $98,700. Fargo wholesale trade sales in 2002: $2.3 billion. Fargo retail sales in 2002: $1.8 billion.^29
Place Dimension	Red River Basin	Red River Valley is most populated area of the state. Red River winds nearly 400 river miles through ND.
	Scale/scope	Population of Fargo in 2006: 90,056.^29 Employment (Cass County) in 2009: 98,528 people^28
	Built Environment	Flooded over 430 homes in the Red River Basin, estimated at $5.5 million in damages. HAZUS estimated 100-year direct economic building flood losses for Cass County = $197.9 million.^3
Time Dimension	Time period	Flood stage: March 20, 2009 – May 20, 2009 Major Flood Stage (> 30 ft): March 24, 2009 – April 26, 2009^30
	Duration	Flood stage: approximately 60 days Major flood stage: approximately 30 days ^30
	Crest frequency and times	1^st Crest: 40.84 ft. on March 28, 2009 2^nd Crest: 34.1 ft on April 16, 2009^30

The 2009 flood was characterized by a rapid water rise, with the first and highest flood crest occurring only 8 days after the onset of flooding. The river remained at major flood stage for a month, with a second peak occurring 20 days after the first crest. Thereafter, the water level remained high for a 2-month period before finally receding to below flood stage. Figures 5-7 visually triangulate the historical magnitude, the water flow dynamics, and the geographic extent of the 2009 flooding. Figure 5 presents the 2009 Fargo flood profile for the 5 years with highest peak rises in the history of flood recording. Figure 6 shows the mean flow rate of the Red River of the North for 1900–2014 (look for the deep blue segment in late March and April for the year 2009). Figure 7 shows a satellite view that depicts the city of Fargo surrounded by widespread flood waters on all sides.

Figure 5. Red River floods: Five highest peak river rises: 2009, 1997, 2011, 2006, 2010. Source: United States Department of the Interior, United States Geological Survey.³¹

Figure 6. Red River of the North at Fargo: Mean daily water flow, 1900-2014. Source: Fargo Flood Homepage displaying data from United States Geological Survey. https://www.ndsu.edu/fargoflood/images/red_river_of_the_north_raster_plot_august_2014.pdf.

Figure 7. 2009 Red River of the North flood waters throughout surrounding Fargo, North Dakota. Source: By Jesse Allen, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 Team - http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37702, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6397042.

Resilience factors

As an offshoot of Fargo sustaining significant flooding events throughout its history, the community's leadership structure and its residents' values and behaviors reflect a “floodplain identity”.³⁵ Central to this identity are expectations of what city government, disaster relief organizations, and community members will do in the event of a major flood. Floodplain identity and community resilience are interrelated. Fargo residents derive meaning from their repeated struggles against the Red River floods, and rely on shared memories and expectations to guide their efforts when facing an impending flood disaster.⁷ During the flood of 2009, observers such as FEMA workers marveled at the extent to which “neighbors helping neighbors” contributed to the resilience of the community. Community leaders explained that “it's just what we do” (J. Crawford, personal communication. March 30, 2009).

Strong civic leadership

Civic leaders adopted a stance of “hopeful realism”,⁷ acknowledging the extent of the threat while expressing confidence that the actions taken by the community would be successful. This approach utilized effective risk communication to engage, inform, and motivate citizens to engage in appropriate behaviors to mitigate the risk of flooding.⁵ Analysis of communication patterns of Fargo city leaders during daily flood briefings revealed a combination of 2 complementary strategies: promoting a sense of calm while motivating urgent action.² Applying the metaphor of “a duck on water,” daily morning meetings of civic officials involved frantic activity taking place out of view of the public, followed by televised flood briefings that portrayed a peaceful outward appearance. This communication strategy appeared to be highly successful in keeping the community focused on goal-directed actions while fostering a sense of hope and confidence.²

Engagement of citizens in mitigation

Involving the populace during the preparation phase required that the community accept that a flood would occur, but that the impact of the flood could be mitigated and many homes could be saved. This hopefulness fueled a strong desire to take positive action, such as sandbagging and building dikes. The community came together to fight the flood threat, strongly enabled by city leaders' decisions to deploy personnel and resources to support the effort. Businesses throughout the city closed, allowing unimpeded travel of heavy equipment needed for emergency mitigation efforts. The Fargo Public School district closed all schools for 8 days. Area schools were transformed into shelters for evacuated citizens and staging areas for equipment and quick-response teams. Over 3,000 students and faculty participated in the sandbag operations. School administrators stated that the flood fight taught students a history-making “lesson in civic service” (Fargo Forum, April 1, 2009).

Organizational linkages for coordination of resources

A salient feature of community resilience was the forging of strong connections among citizens, civic leaders, and organizations involved in disaster response. These connections facilitated communications and increased the effectiveness of the flood-fighting effort. Civic leaders shared updated information through public neighborhood meetings, daily televised press briefings, newspaper interviews, public service announcements, and a Fargo flood website. Nonprofit agencies and local government entities involved in disaster response communicated with the public through the daily briefings, media interviews, internet websites, and a 2-1-1 information line which was updated regularly with flood resource information. A powerful example of coordination of resources was the successful evacuation of 2,157 persons who were deemed “vulnerable” (e.g., nursing home residents, hospital patients), including evacuation of 1,200 persons from 12 facilities within 36 hours.¹³

A high level of coordination among various government and non-government entities participating in the flood response was achieved. National assets arrived to supplement local resources. FEMA sent 462 employees to the state, many of those in advance teams to advise and support state and local governments.¹⁸ Over 2,000 National Guard personnel arrived to participate in sandbagging, dike construction using Hesco barriers, dike patrol, and traffic control. The American Red Cross brought 902 people from 45 states to assist with feeding and sheltering operations, and deployed 51 emergency response vehicles for mobile feeding, mostly in the Red River valley. The Salvation Army deployed 10 mobile feeding units and served over half a million meals, drinks and snacks during the statewide flood response.¹⁸

Provision of psychosocial support

During the height of the flood fight, community members in need of assistance, or with resources to share, exchanged information on an around the clock call-in radio program. Informal groups formed spontaneously within neighborhoods most at risk of flooding; neighbors came together to sandbag, patrol dikes, man pumps, prepare meals, and care for children and pets. After the needs for assistance in these neighborhoods were broadcast through the media, out-of-area volunteers arrived, many from hundreds of miles away. FirstLink, a local volunteer center, answered 55,000 calls on the city flood hotline and coordinated over 100,000 volunteers in Cass and Clay counties (C. Miller, personal communication, November 28, 2010). Visits from the governor of North Dakota, members of Congress, and National Guard leadership provided reassurance.

Behavioral health providers encouraged appropriate self-care for flood fighters. The urgency of the situation made it extremely difficult for citizens to achieve a balance of work and leisure time, get adequate rest and sleep, and maintain healthy patterns of eating and exercise (although many were very physically active due to the rigors of sandbagging). Community leaders recognized that a sustained response to the ongoing threat required replenishing individuals' depleted reserves of energy.

When under stress, people struggle with processing information, and simple messages are best.⁶ One creative mechanism for encouraging appropriate self-care was a suggestion by one of the authors that citizens address “the 3 Rs: rest, routine and relationships.” To function at home, at work, and in the community flood response, adequate rest was necessary. Managing basic routines and attempting a semblance of normalcy was part of this message of self-care. Citizens were reminded about the importance of maintaining relationships, particularly as crises can manifest in paralyzing self-absorption.

The American Red Cross posted an internet video on its website in which another of the authors advised residents to use individual resilience strategies to prepare for the impending flood. Recommended strategies included relying on credible sources of information, limiting exposure to upsetting news reports, engaging in self-care, connecting with others for mutual assistance, and fostering a hopeful outlook. Advice-giving for self-care was not limited to mental health professionals. During the height of the flood battle, the mayor of Fargo, Dennis Walaker, made a unique appeal to residents; he suggested that people “take a break” by engaging in restful activities over the weekend, despite the fact that the National Weather Service had just released a revised flood forecast which significantly increased the threat to the city.²

These attempts to promote self-care among flood-weary citizens, with liberal use of appropriately placed humor for deflecting stress, represented a departure from “business as usual” in natural disasters. This approach, including inviting a behavioral health professional to the daily televised “leadership table,” demonstrated an astute awareness of the role of psychological resilience in mounting a successful community response to a natural disaster.

Resilience Enhancement

Lessons learned

Community resilience was put to the test again during the spring flood seasons of 2010 and 2011. Fargo actively applied lessons learned during the record-setting flood threat of 2009, improving the planning process, enhancing cooperation among response entities, and starting mitigation activities earlier. In order to maintain sufficient numbers of volunteers, civic leaders strove to clearly communicate the flood threat, develop a system for volunteer coordination, and work with employers to minimize barriers to participation. The city's decision to construct earthen dikes to protect flood-prone neighborhoods significantly reduced the need for sandbagging and diking personal property.

Promotion of community resilience

A voluntary group, “Red River Resilience,” was created to give voice to individual and community resilience. Members include health, behavioral health, and spiritual care providers who developed educational materials to help citizens manage disaster stress. The educational message pivots on 5 types of actions that individuals can take to build resilience, summarized with the acronym FACTS: “foster hope, act with purpose, connect with others, take care of yourself, search for meaning^”.²⁰ The vision of Red River Resilience is “to build community resilience, one person at a time” (J. Crawford, personal communication, April 10, 2010).

Discussion

This case study examined community resilience in response to a potential flood disaster which was averted by energized mitigation efforts largely powered by massive volunteer participation. In contrast to most accounts of disaster impact, this is a case study illustrating a city's success in escaping a potentially catastrophic flood.

Psychological reactions tend to be more severe for disasters that are unpredictable, unfamiliar, uncontrollable, and/or intentional. In contrast, the 2009 Red River flood possessed the reverse constellation of characteristics. Red River flooding was predictable, seasonal river rises with potential for flooding were familiar, no human causation was implicated, and Fargo residents exerted considerable control over the extent and magnitude of flood damage.

The city of Fargo has experienced numerous other flood threats over the past 2 decades. Thus, the citizens and civic leaders have considerable experience, and a track record of success, which may have contributed to the high level of community resilience observed during the flood of 2009. Having the knowledge and resources to fight a major flood, and “realistic optimism” about a successful outcome, are strategies endorsed by leaders of other disaster-threatened communities.³⁶ Citizens previously exposed to flooding may be better prepared practically and psychologically to respond to future floods.⁴

On the other hand, repeated flood threats may contribute to some negative effects as well. These include “flood fatigue” (i.e., lack of energy and motivation to respond to future flood threats), depletion of financial resources available for disaster mitigation and response, and a loss of quality of life for impacted residents.

The maintenance of strong psychosocial support is a key element in counteracting negative consequences. Gordon, et al.⁸ found that community cohesion and volunteerism during the 2009 Red River flood reduced interpersonal risk-factors associated with suicide. Herrman and colleagues¹⁰ encouraged behavioral health professionals to collaborate with civic leaders and policy-makers to enhance community resilience. The presence of behavioral health professionals in leadership roles (e.g., giving advice during televised Fargo flood briefings, featured in online public education videos) appeared to have been influential in sustaining psychological resilience in the population during the flood crisis.

The results of this case study are limited by the reliance on observational data (public information, media reports, and personal observations) which were examined retrospectively. It is not known whether the results are replicable in other communities, or generalizable to other kinds of disasters. The resilient disaster response observed in Fargo may have been significantly enhanced by the type of disaster (i.e., a somewhat predictable and controllable flood), prior experience with similar disasters (i.e., success in managing previous flood events), and characteristics of the community (i.e., a Midwestern city with a floodplain identity).

Future research across other communities and disaster types is needed to address these limitations.

The Fargo community is in the process of both short-term and long-term flood mitigation. In contrast to other communities in Red River valley, which have experienced major flood-related losses over the decades, the Fargo area has implemented actions that have averted disaster since 1997. Nevertheless, there is concern about the availability of funding for long-term flood solutions. The extended wet cycle, with annual floods for more than 15 consecutive years, did abate for several years beginning in 2012, but there will always be the potential threat of future severe flooding. How civic leaders and citizens maintain the resolve to fight future floods will require ongoing vigilance and continued efforts to foster community resilience.

Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest

No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.