Social-psychological risk perception impacts on job insecurity and turnover intention: a mediation model using PLS-SEM technique

Abstract

The tourism business has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to numerous challenges for tourism employees, particularly those in frontline positions who directly interact with customers (e.g. hotel employees). The pandemic has caused psychological and social risks, including fear of infection, job loss, and financial insecurity, which have affected employees’ intention to leave the job. This study aims to explore the psychological and social risk perceptions of front-line hotel employees post-COVID-19 and their impact on turnover intention (TI). Moreover, the study investigates the mediating role of job insecurity (JI) in the link between risk perception and TI. A quantitative research method, employing a survey questionnaire to collect the required data from hotel employees was conducted among 330 tourism employees. Data was evaluated using “partial least square structural equation modeling” (PLS-SEM). The findings indicate that tourism employees who perceive high levels of psychological and social risk have a higher intention to quit their jobs. Moreover, the perceived risk of job insecurity mediates the link between psychological and social risk perception and TI. The study provides insights for tourism organizations to identify and mitigate the risks that affect employees’ perceptions and retention. This study adds to the existing body of literature regarding the psychological and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employees in the tourism sector. The study highlights the potential long-term implications for the financial stability of the tourism industry, considering the significant financial consequences associated with turnover intention and job insecurity amid the pandemic.

KEYWORD:

• Tourism employee
• psychological risk
• social risk
• turnover intention
• job insecurity
• PLS-SEM

REVIEWING EDITOR:

• Daryl O’Connor, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

SUBJECTS:

• Social Sciences; Tourism, Hospitality and Events; Hospitality; Hospitality Management; Hospitality Business Development; Tourism; Tourism Management

1. Introduction

The tourism industry has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to unprecedented challenges and disruptions in the workplace (WTTC, 2023). The pandemic has forced many businesses to re-evaluate their operations and make difficult decisions, including layoffs and furloughs, leaving employees feeling uncertain about their job security (JI) (Chen et al., 2018). These uncertainties, combined with psychological and social risk factors, may increase the likelihood of turnover intentions among tourism employees (Ergun et al., 2023). Globally, including in Egypt, the tourism industry has experienced significant issues due to the substantial financial consequences brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to job losses and layoffs. As stated by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to the loss of up to 100 million jobs in the global tourism industry. The report highlighted that the pandemic had already resulted in loss of millions of jobs worldwide and warned the impact could be much worse as the pandemic continued (WTTC, 2023).

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, psychological risk (PR) and social risk factors (SR), such as job stress, lack of support from supervisors and colleagues, and low job satisfaction, were shown to have a noteworthy influence on employee behavior, including TI and JI (Yıldırım et al., 2021). Moreover, the unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped additional stressors for employees in the tourism industry, such as health concerns, financial pressures, and uncertainty about the future (Alyahya et al., 2022). The purpose of this research paper is to investigate the impact of psychological and social risk on TI with the mediating role of JI among tourism employees post-COVID-19.

So far, studies about employees wanting to leave their jobs (TI) during the pandemic (COVID-19) have mostly looked at healthcare staff, intensive care, and emergency medicine (Takase, 2010; Yıldırım et al., 2021; Zahra et al., 2018). However, there hasn’t been much research on hotel employees who work on the frontlines. No studies have explored how hotel employees’ perceived risk of COVID-19 (including psychological and social risks) might affect their desire to leave their job. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how perceived risks (psychological and social) post COVID-19 affects hotel employees’ intention to quit their job. The goal is to address a gap in the existing literature and present a theoretical basis for reducing hotel employees’ turnover intention. Specifically, the study looks at the relationship between psychological and social risks and turnover intention, and also examines the mediating role of job insecurity in this relationship.

This research is particularly important as the tourism industry is a vital contributor to many economies worldwide, and understanding the factors that influence employee TI and JI can help employers implement effective measures to retain their employees (Godovykh et al., 2021; WTTC, 2023). Consequently, the initial objective of this paper is to identify the psychological and social risk factors that contribute to TI and JI among tourism employees post-COVID-19. To achieve this objective, the study will conduct a quantitative research approach, specifically a survey which will employ the use of questionnaires to collect the required data from hotel employees.

2. Theoretical background and study framework

Several theories in organizational psychology suggest that employees’ perception of risk, JI, and TI are linked. These theories emphasize the importance of both psychological and social factors in shaping employee attitudes and behaviors in the workplace. One prominent theory is the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, which suggests that job demands (e.g. workload, role ambiguity, job insecurity) and resources (e.g. social support, job autonomy, feedback) influence employees’ well-being and motivation, which in turn affects their job attitudes and behaviors (Bakker & Demerouti, 2017). According to this framework, high/higher levels of job demand, and low/lower levels of job resources can lead to adverse job attitudes such as JI and TI.

Another theory that relates to employee perceptions of risk, JI, and TI, is the Social Exchange Theory (SET). This theory posits that employees perceive their employment relationship as an exchange relationship where they provide their skills, time, and effort in exchange for rewards and benefits (Blau, 2017). When employees perceive that the exchange is inequitable (i.e. they perceive that they are not receiving enough rewards or that the risks outweigh the benefits), they are more likely to experience destructive job behaviors and attitudes, such as JI and TI. Finally, the Conservation of Resources (COR) theory suggests that people strive to acquire, retain, and protect valued resources, including job resources such as job security and income (Hobfoll, 1989). According to this theory, when individuals experience a loss of resources, such as job loss or income reduction, they may experience adverse psychological reactions such as stress and anxiety, which can lead to negative job attitudes and behaviors such as job insecurity and turnover intention. Overall, these theories highlight the importance of employee perceptions of job demands, resources, and exchange relationships in shaping their attitudes and behaviors in the workplace, including their perceptions of risk, JI, and TI.

2.1. The impact of psychological and social risks on JI and TI

Perceived risk refers to how people subjectively assess the characteristics and severity of potential risks (Godovykh et al., 2021). In the context of COVID-19, perceived risk is how individuals feel about the possibility of getting infected, including their anxieties, concerns, and fears. This includes their inference of the probability of getting the infection and its consequences based on the information obtainable to them (Yıldırım et al., 2021). The perception of risk plays a crucial role in determining whether individuals embrace behaviors that safeguard their health in order to lessen the probable risks. During the pandemic (COVID-19), perceived risk motivated people to take measures like Steering clear of crowds, utilizing communal transportation sparingly, donning masks, and maintaining good personal hygiene habits such as regular handwashing (Darvishmotevali et al., 2017; Yıldırım et al., 2021). Additionally, perceived risk impacted both physical and mental health, distress altitudes, and overall satisfaction with life (Zhang et al., 2020).

We differentiate between two main types of risks: psychological and social risk. Psychological risk (PS) and social risk (SR) are two distinct constructs that are relevant to understanding employee attitudes and behaviors in the workplace, including the tourism industry. While both types of risks can contribute to negative job attitudes and behaviors, they have different underlying causes and implications. Psychological risk refers to the perceived threat to an employee’s psychological well-being or mental health (Shoss, 2017; van der Linden, 2015). This may include factors such as job insecurity, work overload, role ambiguity, and lack of job control. These factors can contribute to negative job attitudes such as low job satisfaction and high TI and can further exacerbate financial issues. A study by Abd-Ellatif et al (Abd-Ellatif et al., 2021) discovered that physicians in Egypt who were working at the frontline expressed advanced levels of anxiety related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and higher fear levels were related to higher levels of TI. Similarly, another study identified that the fear of risk related to COVID-19 was linked to reduced job satisfaction, and heightened organizational and professional TI among frontline nurses (Takase, 2010). Elshaer et al. (Elshaer et al., 2022) found that perceived risk can increase perception of JI among tourism employees. Therefore, we suggest that:

• H1: Psychological risk positively influences job insecurity.

• H2: Psychological risk positively influences turnover intention.

In contrast, social risk refers to the perceived threat to an employee’s social identity, social status, or relationships with others in the workplace (Cohen & McKay, 2020; Milman et al., 2022; van der Linden, 2015). This may include factors such as workplace bullying, discrimination, and ostracism. Social risk can contribute to negative job attitudes such as low organizational commitment, JI and high TI. A study by Elshaer et al. (Elshaer et al., 2023), found that social loafing, which is a type of social risk, was a significant interpreter of TI among hotel employees. While both psychological and social risk can contribute to negative job attitudes and behaviors, they have different implications for employee well-being and organizational outcomes. For example, psychological risk may be more closely linked to individual well-being and mental health, while social risk may be more closely linked to social relationships and team dynamics in the workplace. We then propose that:

• H3: Social risk positively influences JI.

• H4: Social risk positively influences TI.

2.2. The impact of job insecurity on turnover intention

Job insecurity (JI) is a significant source of job stress and a crucial occupational risk factor that can have negative short and long-term effects on both individuals and organizations (Cheng & Chan, 2008; Sverke et al., 2002). Job insecurity may result in adverse emotional responses, including but not limited to, anger, apprehension, and frustration for individuals, which can lead to multiple results such as reduced performance, emotional overtiredness, mental health issues, low work engagement, and even turnover intention (the desire to quit the jobs) (Staufenbiel & König, 2010; Sverke et al., 2002). Job insecurity has significant implications for turnover intention, leading to financial problems for both individuals and organizations (Sverke et al., 2002). The financial consequences include reduced income, job search costs, lost benefits for individuals, and recruitment costs, decreased productivity, and reputational damage for organizations (Richter et al., 2020; Shoss, 2017). Addressing job insecurity through proactive measures and creating supportive work environments can help mitigate turnover intention and alleviate the resulting financial burdens on individuals and organizations (Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984). We suggest that hotel employees with high levels of JI have limited personal resources available, based on the resource conservation (COR) theory. In the context of the pandemic (COVID-19), if hotel employees perceive high levels of JI, they may feel powerless to change their job status or career development (Hobfoll, 1989; Hobfoll et al., 2018). This can lead to feelings of powerlessness and anxiety, resulting in additional loss of work resources, problems in retaining in their work, and ultimately, a higher likelihood of wanting to leave the organization. Hence, we state the following hypothesis.

• H5: JI positively influences TI.

2.3. Job insecurity as a mediator

The connection between COVID, perceived psychological and social risks and TI is complex and may involve various dynamic processes, which can be influenced by other factors. One of the objectives of this study is to explore and comprehend the underlying mechanisms of this relationship by examining job insecurity. JI describes people’s subjective perception of worries about job maintenance or ambiguity in the work environment. JI can manifest as a worry of losing one’s job or apprehension about losing important job characteristics, both of which can threaten the stability and continuity of one’s current employment situation (Greenhalgh & Rosenblatt, 1984; Jiang & Lavaysse, 2018; Sverke et al., 2002).

The perceived risk of the pandemic (COVID-19) could be a possible factor leading to JI. Although workers in all businesses are facing a higher risk of pathological infection, the risks experienced by workers in different businesses may vary (Yıldırım et al., 2021). For example, employees in the tourism and healthcare businesses face more serious risks than those in other businesses. While employees in other businesses can lessen their risk of infection by self-isolating, practicing social isolation, or closing their workplace (Sun et al., 2022).

Individuals may engage in cognitive processes when confronted with challenges or stressors in their personal or professional lives (Elshaer et al., 2023). In the case of hotel employees facing a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, they may encounter an evaluation process to assess the seriousness of the risk and verify the required actions. One possible consequence of this risk is job loss or loss of important job features. Hotel employees may reevaluate their JI in the context of the pandemic (Xiao et al., 2022). In Pakistan’s hospitality business, a positive relationship between fear of COVID-19 and JI was found (Sun et al., 2022). This suggests that the risk of exposure to the virus directly impacts hotel employees’ JI. The higher the risk of infection for hotel employees, the fewer control they have, the larger the obstacles they face in performing their duties and the more likely they are to consider changing jobs, resulting in a higher levels of JI. Therefore, we propose the following hypotheses as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Study framework.

• H6: JI mediates the relationship between psychological risk and TI.

• H7: JI mediates the relationship between social risk and TI.

3. Research methodology

3.1. Measures

Upon a thorough examination of the existing literature, the research employed various measures that had been utilized in previous studies. One of these measures was the scale for psychological and social risk, which was originally developed by Stone and Gronhaug (Stone & Grønhaug, 1993). However, the scale was modified to suit the specific context of the study. An example of a statement used to measure psychological risk was “The idea of continuing in my current job would cause me to feel mentally uneasy.” On the other hand, an example of a statement used to measure social risk was “If I choose to remain in my current job, I believe my colleagues would hold me in higher regard. Further, turnover intention was evaluated using a scale developed by Singh and Loncar (Singh & Loncar, 2010) and Karatepe (Karatepe, 2009), which was adopted by Saad and Elshaer (Saad & Elshaer, 2017). An example statement from the scale were “I frequently contemplate leaving my current job.” Finally, JI was measured by six variables adopted from Hellgren et al. (Hellgren et al., 1999) and Elshaer et al. (Elshaer et al., 2022; 2022). Sample statements from the measures used was “I am concerned about losing my job, and I feel anxious about my career advancement within the organization.”

3.2. Sample size justification

The sample size of 330 participants meets the requirements for performing PLS-SEM tests and is considered sufficient. Deciding the minimum sample size is a main consideration in PLS-SEM technique. The “10-times rule” procedure, commonly employed to estimate the lowest sample size required to run PLS-SEM as recommended by Hair et al. (Hair et al., 2017), the principle underlying this approach suggests that an appropriate sample size should be at least ten times the number of variables utilized in the study. Given that our model comprises 4 latent dimensions with a total of 15 reflective variables (150 in total), With a minimum calculated sample size of 150, our sample size of 330 surpasses this requirement significantly. The study also met Hair et al.’s (Hair et al., 2014) who argued that to achieve acceptable results in structural equation modeling (SEM), it is recommended to have a minimum adequate sample size of 100–150. A larger sample size facilitates the utilization of advanced data analysis techniques such as SEM, thereby enabling a successful exploration of the interdependence assumptions among the research variables in our study. To assess whether there are any substantial variations in mean responses among participants who completed the questionnaire early and later, a t-test was conducted. The results indicated that no significant differences in the means, suggesting the absence of notable variations in responses based on the timing of survey completion. However, it is important to acknowledge that the study may still be subject to non-response bias, as highlighted by Bryman and Cramer (Bryman & Cramer, 2012).

3.3. Data collection and participants

We distributed 345 questionnaires and collected 330 from employees of hotels located in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, by administering a questionnaire with a response rate of 95%. Sharm El-Sheikh (Egyptian city) was selected because it is known for having many high-rated five-star hotels. Moreover, this sector stands out as one of Egypt’s highly competitive industries, where around 80% of hotels are large, high-end establishments operated by international hotel chains, as reported by the Egyptian Ministry of Tourism in 2020 (Saad & Elshaer, 2017). Understanding and addressing social-psychological risk perception among luxury hotel employees is essential for promoting a healthy and productive work environment. The survey was restricted to workers who had at least two years of experience as they are considered to obtain sufficient competencies to reply to the study’s questions. Data for this study were collected employing convenience sampling method and drop-and-collect technique spanning a three-month period from January to March 2022. To guarantee that the respondents could complete the questionnaire, the researchers translated the original measures into Arabic. As the primary respondents were non-English speakers, this allowed them to answer the questions more easily. To check the questionnaire’s quality, a pilot study was conducted with 12 respondents. The researchers found no issues with the questionnaire, so it was then sent to the rest of the respondents.

To mitigate the potential issue of common method variance (CMV) due to the self-reporting questionnaire, the researchers performed Harman’s single factor analysis. This analysis was conducted using SPSS exploratory factor analysis (EFA) test, where the number of extracted factors was limited to one, and no rotation method was used. The results indicated that only 29% of the variance was explained by the extracted factor, indicating that CMV is not a significant concern (Lindell & Whitney, 2001; Podsakoff et al., 2003).

4. Results

4.1. Demographic information

The characteristics of all participants are presented in Table 1. The largest proportion of participants were male (60%), and the majority were married (65%). Participants aged between 30 and 45 years accounted for less than half of the total (45%). In terms of length of service, around 32% (105 participants) had been with their organization for less than five years, while 58% (191 participants) had been in service for between 6 to 15 years. Among the respondents, 20% had attained less than a high school degree, 30% had completed high school, while 50% were university graduates.

Table 1. Respondents’ demographics.

		N = 330	%
Sex	Male	198	60%
	Female	132	40%
State	Married	215	65%
	Not married	115	35%
Age range	< 30 years	66	20%
	30–45	149	45%
	46–60	82	25%
	> 60	33	10%
Education background	< high school degree	66	20%
	Obtained a high school degree	99	30%
	University rank	165	50%
Length of service	< 5 years	105	32%
	6 - 15	191	58%
	> 15 years	33	10%

4.2. PLS-SEM results assessment

The study utilized PLS-SEM to analyse the collected data and test the proposed hypotheses. PLS-SEM is recognized as a simple and efficient method to explore the intricate connections between different constructs, estimate, and forecast models. It is also a preferred method as it can manage small sample sizes and offers several other benefits (Hair et al., 2017). The PLS-SEM implementation involves two stages: the structural and measurement models (Leguina, 2015). The following sections explain these two steps.

4.3. Measurement model findings

The initial stage of PLS-SEM modeling analysis involves the evaluation of the measurement model. This stage examines the indicators and constructs loadings, as well as the reliability and validity of the model, by using various tests. In PLS-SEM analysis, various assessments are necessary to evaluate the measurement model. These tests encompass Cronbach’s alpha (CA), composite reliability (CR), average variance extracted (AVE), and variance inflation factor (VIF). To ensure good reliability, it is suggested that indicators have loading values of 0.70 or higher, which indicates that they can explain about 50% of the variance (Sarstedt et al., 2022), although the 0.70 threshold value is commonly suggested for indicator loadings, it is not recommended to remove indicators with loadings less than this value unless their removal increases composite reliability. Additionally, it is advised to maintain loading values between 0.40 and 0.70. Recent research by (Aliedan et al., 2022; Alrawad et al., 2022; Alyahya et al., 2022) supports this recommendation. Table 2 shows that the indicators in this study had good reliability with loadings ranging from 0.836 to 0.944. The internal consistency and reliability of the constructs were evaluated using CR and CA values, which should be between 0.70 and 0.95 to ensure strong reliability and validity, according to Hair et al. (Hair et al., 2017). Table 2 indicates that the desired threshold has been achieved. In addition, the convergent validity of the study is examined by the AVE test, which suggests a threshold of 0.50 or higher (Sarstedt et al., 2022). The AVE values reported in Table 2 are acceptable and meet the recommended threshold. Finally, the study examines multicollinearity using the VIF test, which measures the correlation among the exogenous variables in the study. A value of less than 5 for AVE indicates no collinearity in the study (Hair et al., 2017).

Table 2. Reliability, convergent validity and multicollinearity.

factors & variables	Estimates	a	[C.R.]	[AVE]	[VIF]
Job Insecurity (J.Insec.)		0.927	0.929	0.734
J.Insec.1	0.857				2.894
J.Insec2	0.849				2.827
J.Insec.3	0.860				3.061
J.Insec.4	0.868				2.934
J.Insec.5	0.844				2.889
J.Insec.6	0.861				2.861
Psychological Risk (Psyc.Rsk.)		0.910	0.910	0.847
Psyc.Rsk.1	0.910				2.885
Psyc.Rsk.2	0.935				3.576
Psyc.Rsk.3	0.916				2.911
Social Risk (Soc_Rsk.)		0.872	0.895	0.796
Soc_Rsk.1	0.922				2.839
Soc_Rsk.2	0.916				2.634
Soc_Rsk.3	0.836				1.964
Turnover Intention (T_O_Int.)		0.922	0.923	0.865
T_O_Int.1	0.936				3.752
T_O_Int.2	0.944				4.271
T_O_Int.3	0.911				2.894

Source: Primary data.

It is crucial to assess the distinctiveness of the variables. To achieve this, the Fornell and Larcker (Fornell & Larcker, 1981) test was utilized. The outcomes presented in Table 2 suggest adequate discriminant validity. Additionally, Table 3 exhibits the cross-loadings, where each factor should have a higher loading than any other related dimensions, demonstrating reasonable discriminant validity (Table 4).

Table 3. Cross loadings.

	Job insecurity	Psychological risk	Social risk	Turnover intention
J.Insec.1	0.857	0.569	0.606	0.579
J.Insec2	0.849	0.524	0.633	0.520
J.Insec.3	0.860	0.475	0.624	0.538
J.Insec.4	0.868	0.473	0.633	0.533
J.Insec.5	0.844	0.429	0.587	0.465
J.Insec.6	0.861	0.470	0.693	0.587
Psyc.Rsk.1	0.511	0.910	0.524	0.587
Psyc.Rsk.2	0.552	0.935	0.513	0.585
Psyc.Rsk.3	0.521	0.916	0.400	0.630
Soc_Rsk.1	0.707	0.512	0.922	0.415
Soc_Rsk.2	0.739	0.433	0.916	0.418
Soc_Rsk.3	0.488	0.448	0.836	0.381
T_O_Int.1	0.621	0.629	0.460	0.936
T_O_Int.2	0.582	0.588	0.422	0.944
T_O_Int.3	0.550	0.604	0.382	0.911

Source: Primary data.

Table 4. Fornell–larcker-criterion.

	J_INSEC	PSYC_RS	SOC_RSK	T_O_INT
J_INSEC	0.857
PSYC.RSK	0.574	0.920
SOC_RSK.	0.736	0.519	0.892
T_O_INT.	0.629	0.653	0.454	0.930

Source: Primary data.

In addition, the study also employed the Heterotrait-Monotrait Ratio (HTMT) test to examine the degree to which each factor is different from the other factors in the suggested structural model. This test is considered more accurate (Hair et al., 2014). The findings, as shown in the table, were satisfactory, as no value exceeded 0.90, indicating the absence of any discriminant validity issues among the constructs in the study (Table 5).

Table 5. Heterotrait-monotrait ratio (HTMT).

	J_INSEC	PSYC.RSK	SOC_RSK	T_O_INT
J_INSEC.
PSYC.RSK.	0.623
SOC_RSK.	0.801	0.585
T_O_INT.	0.677	0.712	0.505

Source: Primary data.

4.4. Structural model

After completion of the paper measurement model validity, the structural suggested model underwent testing. The outcomes of the evaluations, including the tested relationships, hypotheses, and other significant tests, are illustrated in Table 6. The results of the study’s tested hypotheses are displayed in Table 6. Starting with (H1), which indicated a significant and positive correlation between PR and JI among the participants in the research (β = 0.262, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the table displays the effect size (f2) of the association between PR and JI, which is 0.123, indicating a small effect, according to Cohen’s (Cohen, 1988) standards. Additionally, the t-value for the relationship between GM and ESI shows that PR can explain 4.936 of the variances in JI. Furthermore, Table 6 illustrates the results of (H2), which indicated a significant and positive correlation between PS and TI among the participants in the research (β = 0.452, P < 0.001).

Table 6. Hypotheses testing.

	Association	Coefficient (β)	t-value	p Value	Decision	R^2	F^2	Q^2
H1	PR—> JI	0.262	4.936	0.000	Accepted	JI = 0.592 TI = 0.529	0.123	JI = 0.582 TI = 0.433
H2	PR—> TI	0.452	5.332	0.000	Accepted		0.283
H3	SR—> JI	0.600	10.647	0.000	Accepted		0.645
H4	SR—> TI	0.116	1.639	0.101	Rejected		0.013
H5	JI—-> TI	0.455	5.632	0.000	Accepted		0.179
Specific indirect
H6	PR—> JI—> TI	0.049	1.314	0.189	No mediation
H7	SR—> JI—> TI	0.141	2.661	0.008	Full mediation

Source: Primary data.

The table also indicates the effect size (f2) of the association between PR and TI, which is 0.283, indicating a medium effect, as per Cohen’s (Cohen, 1988) guidelines. Additionally, the t-value for the relationship between PR and TI shows that PR can account for 5.332 of the variances in TI. The outcomes of (H3) also demonstrated a significant and positive correlation between SR and JI among the research participants (β = 0.60, P < 0.001). Furthermore, Table 6 indicates the effect size (f2) of the association between SR and JI, which is 0.645, confirming a large effect, according to Cohen’s (Cohen, 1988) criteria. Moreover, the t-value for the relationship between SR and JI suggests that SR can clarify 10.647 of the variances in JI. Regarding (H4), which investigated the correlation between SR and TI, the outcomes indicated that there was no significant link between SR and TI (β = 0.116, P = 0.101). The table also demonstrates the effect size (f2) of the association between SR and TI, which is 0.013, confirming the presence of a small effect, based on Cohen’s (Cohen, 1988) standards. Additionally, the t-value for the relationship between SR and TI was low at 1.639, confirming the rejection of the alternative hypothesis. (H5) was intended to investigate the correlation between JI and TI. The results indicated a significant and positive association between JI and TI (β = 0.455, P < 0.001). Moreover, Table 6 demonstrates the effect size (f2) of the association between JI and TI, which is 0.179, confirming the presence of a small effect, in line with Cohen’s (Cohen, 1988) guidelines. Additionally, the t-value for the relationship between JI and TI suggests that JI can explain 5.632 of the variances in TI.

In relation to (H6), which intended to investigate whether JI could mediate the correlation between PR and TI, the results demonstrated that JI did not mediate the link between the constructs mentioned earlier (β = 0.049, P = 0.189). In addition, for (H7), we investigated whether JI could mediate the correlation between SR and TI, and the outcome was intriguing. The result of (H7) indicated that JI had the ability to fully mediate the relationship between SR and TI (β = 0.141, P < 0.05). Regarding the coefficient of determination (R²), it is noticeable that PR and SR can predict JI with a predictive power of 0.592. Additionally, PR, SR, and JI together can predict 0.529 of the variances in TI, which is considered a considerable prediction. Finally, the study provides the Q2, which displays the predictive significance of the model. Table 6 demonstrates that all Q2 values are greater than zero, indicating that the model of the study has adequate predictive relevance (Hair et al., 2017).

5. Discussion and Implications

By applying the theoretical models of COR JD-R and SET, this study delved into the ways in which the psychological and social risks experienced by hotel staff during the COVID-19 pandemic influence their levels of job insecurity (JI) and intentions to leave their positions (TI). The study also aimed to determine whether the influence of perceived risks (both psychological and social) on TI is direct or if it is influenced by JI as a mediating factor.

The high percentage of married (65%) male (60%) employees aged between 30 and 45 years old (45%) in Egyptian resorts can be attributed to several interconnected factors. First, safety concerns and cultural norms can play a significant role in limiting female participation in certain hotel roles, particularly those involving night shifts or positions in less secure areas. This may discourage women from pursuing careers in these areas. Second, many men in Egypt prioritize family life and responsibility, and by the time they reach their 30s and 40s, they often have spouses and children to support. Employment in the resort industry can provide a steady income, which is crucial for meeting the financial needs of their families, including housing, education, and healthcare. Third, traditional gender roles still hold significant influence in Egyptian society. Men are often seen as the primary breadwinners responsible for financially supporting their families. This societal expectation encourages men to seek any opportunity even if has instable job security. Finally, social and cultural norms in Egypt often emphasize the importance of marriage and family life. Men are encouraged to marry and build families, which can drive them to seek any employment opportunity that can support their family’s needs.

The initial outcome of our analysis indicated that perceived psychological risk has a meaningful and positive impact on TI. This discovery is consistent with earlier research that utilized healthcare and hotel workers as participants (Abd-Ellatif et al., 2021; Alyahya et al., 2022; Bridgeman et al., 2018; Elshaer et al., 2022; 2022; 2023; Elshaer & Azazz, 2022). Consequently, it is possible to infer that for frontline employees in the healthcare and tourism businesses, the likelihood of TI increases as the perceived psychological risk increases. Conversely, the effect of social risk on TI was found to be statistically non-significant. This result suggests that social risk may not be a significant factor in determining hotel employees’ intentions to leave their jobs. While hotel employees may face social risks in the post-COVID-19 era, these risks may not have a significant impact on their intentions to leave their jobs. Instead, hotel managers should focus on improving job stability and satisfaction to reduce turnover intentions among employees. Specifically, hotel managers in Egypt should recognize that reducing turnover intentions among employees is not only vital for the success of their establishments but also for fostering a positive work culture. By prioritizing job stability, job satisfaction, open communication, and employee well-being, managers can create an environment where employees are motivated to stay committed and contribute to the long-term success of the hotel industry in Egypt.

The hypothesis put forward in this study, regarding the relationship between JI and TI among hotel employees during the pandemic (COVID-19), is consistent with prior research conducted in various job contexts. Several studies have confirmed that job insecurity has increased turnover intention across different populations, including non-managerial staff in USA and China (Chen et al., 2018), workers in numerous businesses in South Korea (Lee & Jeong, 2017), Turkish call-center labors (Çınar et al., 2014), Turkish restaurant staff (Akgunduz & Eryilmaz, 2018), and Belgian workforces (Richter et al., 2020). Additionally, a study by Jung et al. (Jung et al., 2021) investigating the TI of five-star hotel in South Korea discovered that employees’ perception of JI had a significant impact on their TI. Similar findings regarding the relationship between JI and TI during the COVID-19 pandemic have also been reported in recent studies (Alyahya et al., 2022; Elshaer & Azazz, 2022).

Additionally, the outcomes of our investigation suggest that hotel employees who perceive considerable psychological and social risk tend to experience a significant level of JI. Consequently, this feeling of JI appears to have a direct impact on their inclination to leave their jobs. Curiously, when only the impact of perceived psychological risk on TI is taken into account, the correlation is significantly positive. Nevertheless, the straight connection between social risk and TI becomes negligible when the crucial influence of JI is considered. Therefore, JI functions as a full mediator between the perception of social risk and TI. In the context of Egyptian hotel employees, the intricate relationship between the perception of social risk and turnover intentions is illuminated by the significant role played by job insecurity. Job insecurity acts as a complete mediator, serving as a critical link that elucidates how employees’ perceptions of social risk translate into their intentions to leave their positions. This outcome is intriguing because executing various procedures, such as improved virus protection and more compassionate isolation policies, to give hotel employees a sense of security can diminish turnover intention.

5.1. Theoretical Implications

The current study is a pertinent and significant exploration into how hotel employees perceive psychological and social risks and the subsequent influence on turnover intentions (TI) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study confirms a logical and causal link between perceived risk, JI, and TI, while also laying the foundation for understanding how perceived psychological and social risk influences hotel employees’ job attitudes. Prior research has predominantly concentrated on TI among hotel workers in normal working circumstances (Chen et al., 2018; Edrees et al., 2023; Ergun et al., 2023; Tag-Eldeen et al., 2017). Nonetheless, very few studies have explored the influence of perceived psychological and social risk on hotel employees’ turnover intention during the exceptional COVID-19 pandemic. The main objective of this research is to analyze the psychological and social mechanisms that underlie the link between perceived risk and TI, as well as their limitations. The results of this study are to make a substantial contribution to the existing literature on the hospitality and tourism sectors. The outcomes of this study add to the existing literature on organizational behavior (OB) and human resource management (HRM). The study constructs and evaluates a framework that is grounded on the JD-R model and COR theory, which explains how perceived risk among hotel employees influences their TI via JI. Based on the JD-R model, both perceived risk and JI, which are employment demands, are detrimental to workers’ work behaviors and attitudes. Additionally, the JD-R model and COR theory underscore the significance of resources. The outcomes of this study make a notable contribution to the existing literature by expanding on the theoretical frameworks of the JD-R model and COR theory to comprehend the work of hotel employees during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this study puts forward a crucial hypothesis concerning the connection between perceived psychosocial and social risks and TI, specifically that JI functions as a partial mediator between psychological risk and TI, while it acts as a complete mediator in the link between perceived social risk and TI. This highlights the significance of reducing JI in situations of unpredictability and uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as it has a vital impact on employees’ attitudes and behavior.

5.2. Practical Implications

The study’s results have significant practical implications for hospitality and tourism organizations. In particular, organizations must pay close attention to the psychological and social risks that hotel employees perceive, as these risks can lead to increased TI. It is vital to address the psychological risks connected to job insecurity and TI in order to minimize their effects on financial concerns. Organizations can facilitate open and honest communication, offer assistance and resources to cope with stress, and provide avenues for professional development and skill enhancement. Similarly, individuals can prioritize building resilience, seeking support from their social networks, and exploring alternative income streams or financial planning strategies to bolster their financial readiness and security in times of uncertainty.

To minimize the negative impact of perceived risk on employees’ turnover intention, organizations should prioritize measures to reduce job insecurity. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of resources in minimizing the impact of perceived risk on turnover intention. Therefore, hospitality and tourism organizations must provide their employees with sufficient resources to reduce their perceived risk and job insecurity. For example, organizations can implement policies such as better virus protection, flexible work schedules, and more humane isolation rules to provide a sense of security to their employees. Moreover, organizations can enhance their employees’ psychological resources by promoting positive workplace relationships and providing emotional support to employees. Such measures will help reduce the perceived psychological and social risks that hotel employees face, which, in turn, can lead to a reduction in turnover intention.

Moreover, mitigating the social risks associated with TI through the mediating role of JI is essential for maintaining individuals’ social connections and well-being, which, in turn, can positively influence their financial situation. Organizations can foster a supportive work environment, encourage social interactions, and provide resources for employees to enhance their networking skills and maintain social connections. Additionally, individuals can proactively seek support from their social networks, participate in professional or community events, and engage in activities that promote well-being and social connectedness.

This holds significance since in today’s fast-paced world, the possibility of further ambiguity and unforeseen events is probable to create additional insecurity and affect TI (Parker et al., 2006). Moreover, the outcomes of this study provide practical implications for hotels aiming to retain their employees and decrease the turnover rate amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. It can be expensive to train a proficient employee. Despite the decrease in human resource needs in hotels during the pandemic, hotel managers cannot simply rely on external factors to change their organization passively. In order to reduce turnover rates and promote employee well-being and satisfaction, it is crucial for the hospitality industry to proactively understand the factors influencing TI and to develop effective personnel management solutions. While perceived risk is an important factor, as demonstrated in this study, its impact on TI is entirely mediated by JI. Hence, hotel managers should differentiate between psychological and social risk perception and JI and address them separately to better assist employees in dealing with these concerns.

6. Limitations and Future opportunities

Although this paper has produced intriguing findings, it is not without its limitations, which can be addressed in future investigations. To begin with, the study’s sample was restricted to hotel workers, and accordingly the generalizability of the results to other contexts is doubtful. Further studies should aim to validate these conclusions in diverse settings and cultural contexts. This study is restrained by its use of cross-sectional data, which does not permit definitive conclusions about the causal link between the tested variables. To improve the strength of the results, future research could employ a longitudinal approach with multiple measurement time slots. The present study concentrated only on personal factors such as psychological and social risk perceptions, to understand their impact on TI. However, future research could investigate the aggregated effect of contextual factors and personal on TI.

7. Conclusion

Using PLS_SEM approach, this paper has highlighted the significant role of perceived psychological and social risk on hotel employees’ TI Post the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study indicate that when hotel employees perceive a high level of psychological and social risk, they experience high JI, which ultimately affects their TI. Moreover, JI was found to have a full mediation in the relationship between perceived social risk and TI, while partially mediating the link between perceived psychological risk and TI.

Informed consent statement

Informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in the study.

Institutional review board statement

The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the deanship of scientific research ethical committee, King Faisal University (project number: 3350, date of approval: 01/04/2023).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data is available upon request from researchers who meet the eligibility criteria. Kindly contact the first author privately through e-mail.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia [GRANT 5485].

Notes on contributors

Ibrahim A. Elshaer

Dr. Ibrahim A. Elshaer holds the position of Professor of Strategic Management at the School of Business, King Faisal University in KSA. Currently, he serves as a consultant to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Faisal University and is a member of the editorial board for the scientific journal of King Faisal University: Humanities and Management Sciences. He completed his PhD from the Business School at the University of Hull, UK. Dr. Elshaer’s extensive academic and professional background spans diverse areas, including strategic management, marketing, entrepreneurship, sustainability, eco-management, job insecurity, and corporate resilience. With over 88 research papers in his field, he has an impressive publication record in numerous high-impact journals indexed in ISI and Scopus. His contributions to academia also include serving as the Head of the Department of Hotel Management at the Faculty of Tourism and Hotels, Suez Canal University, Egypt. In addition to his editorial roles, Prof. Elshaer has served as a guest editor for various well-known journals. He is widely recognized as an international reviewer for numerous Arab and international journals. His exceptional achievements were acknowledged in 2017 when one of his research papers received the Excellence Award from Emerald Publishing. Prof. Elshaer has supervised several master’s and doctoral theses in the fields of marketing, HRM, and strategic management. Notably, Professor Elshaer’s dedication and contributions to his field have earned him a spot-on Stanford University’s list of the world’s top 2% of Scientists in 2023.