‘Prism’ for the meso-level: do the cyclical patterns at the national and regional levels coincide?

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to determine the most relevant method of a time series analysis to identify the cyclicality in the development of regional economies. In pursuit of the goal, a comparative approach was employed, focusing on the utilization of Gross Regional Product (GRP) indicators from the regions within the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. Statistical and econometric methods were also employed to analyze the changes in these indicators over time (from 1998 to 2019). The relevance of this study manifests in its capacity to elucidate the cyclic processes within the development of regional economies, thereby enabling the identification of strategies to influence them toward the attainment of sustainable and balanced development goals. The study revealed that the majority of the examined regions remain in the lowest quartile of Gross Regional Product (GRP), while two regions consistently feature in the highest GRP quartile. The research findings hold practical implications for policy decisions and regional development strategies, aiding in understanding economic dynamics and supporting the implementation of effective management measures to bolster regional development. Based on the research findings, it is recommended to intensify support for regions with low GDP by providing additional investments and infrastructural development, as well as adapting successful development strategies. Political decisions should be grounded in cyclical trends, taking into account the needs and opportunities of each region. Future research efforts may focus on refining the spectral analysis method for a more precise and reliable analysis of GRP dynamics at the regional level.

Impact statement

This research has shown that the distribution of growth in the gross regional product is not statistically normal and therefore it is necessary to complement traditional narrative statistics with other methods. The results of our spectral analysis confirmed our hypothesis about the usefulness of this method. An introduced model for spectral analysis of GRP treats it as a specific case of the regression model using discrete Fourier transformation. Considering the persistent trend of low levels of regional product in certain regions juxtaposed with consistently high levels in others, we recommend the development of a national strategy encompassing specialized programs to support and foster the regions in the lowest quartile of regional product. Policymakers should actively incentivize investments in regions with low levels of regional product, directing financial and other resources to bolster economic growth and infrastructural development.

Keywords:

• Descriptive statistics
• exploratory data analysis
• gross regional product
• regional growth
• spectral analysis

Reviewing Editor:

• Zhang Xibin, Monash University, AUSTRALIA

Subjects:

• Social Sciences
• Development Studies
• Economics and Development
• Economics, Finance, Business & Industry
• Economics
• Business, Management and Accounting

Disclosure statement

The authors report there are no competing interests to declare.

Data availability statement

Data will be available on request.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mayya Dubovik

Mayya Dubovik Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia. Her research interests include economic theory, economic methodology, property and cash inequality of states and regions, sustainable development, technological progress and innovation, modern economic growth. She published books on Macroeconomics, Digital economics etc. Her works have been published in such journals as Creative Economics, Vestnik of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Financial Management, Drucker’s Bulletin and others.

Sergey Dmitriev

Sergey Dmitriev Ph.D. in Economics, Researcher, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Customs, Information Technology and Natural Science Disciplines of the Bryansk Branch of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia, Bryansk. His research interests include convergent and divergent processes of regional economic development, inequality between countries and regions, spectral analysis in economics, problems of methodology of economic science. He has published a book on the theory of innovative development from a Schumpeterian economic growth perspective. His works have been published in such journals as Creative Economics, Issues of Innovative Economics, Vestnik of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and others.

Natalya Obidovskaya

Natalya Obidovskaya Ph.D. in Economics, Head of the Department of Civil, Criminal Law and Procedure and Financial and Legal Disciplines, Russia, Bryansk. Her research interests include tax and customs regulation, legal regulation of entrepreneurial activity and digital economy. The results of her research have been published in scientific journals such as Kant, Innovation and Investment, Financial Management and others.

Gulchexra Khalmatjanova

Gulchexra Khalmatjanova Ph.D. in Economics, Head of the Department of World and Regional Economics, Ferghana State University, Uzbekistan, Ferghana. Her research interests include regional economics, agrarian sector development, investment policy, and economic growth. Her works have been published in such journals as Academicia: an international multidisciplinary research journal, Scientific progress, Problems of Economics, Education and Science in Russia and abroad and others.