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Original Articles

A Modified R/S Analysis of Long-Term Dependence in Currency Futures Prices

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Pages 97-113 | Published online: 13 Oct 2011
 

Abstract

This study focuses on testing the long-term price behavior of currency futures for the British pound, the Deutsche mark, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc for the period 1977-1987. The weak-form efficiency hypothesis holds if currency futures prices reflect all the available information and do not exhibit either short-term or long-term memory. We test the efficiency hypothesis by employing the modified rescaled range analysis to detect long-term persistence. Our fmdings indicate that all the four currency futures exhibit both short-term and long-term dependence. However, when the sample period is segregated into two sub-periods, long-term dependence is detected only for the three European currencies, while short-term memory prevails for all four currencies.

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