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ABSTRACT
We seem to be on the cusp of an AI-driven revolution in military affairs. Scholars have explored many aspects of this revolution but one of the most vibrant debates has addressed the question of lethal autonomous weapons. Some scholars believe that autonomous weapons, and especially autonomous drone swarms, are about to colonise the battlefield. This paper assesses this argument. It identifies three common mistakes in discussions of lethal autonomy. Scholars overestimate the capability of autonomous drone swarms. They underestimate their dependence on other weapon systems. Finally, they presume that autonomous weapons will favour the offence. This paper rejects all three claims.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
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3 Robert Gonzalez, War Virtually (Oakland, CA: University of Oakland, 2022), 62.
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14 Kenneth Payne, I, Warbot (London: Hurst 2021), 51.
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16 Kenneth Payne, Strategy, Evolution and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2018), 177.
17 Altmann and Sauer, ‘Autonomous Systems and Strategic Stability’, 117–142.
18 Paul Scharre, Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War (New York: WW Norton & Company, 2018), 4.
19 Ben Buchanan and Andrew Imbrie, The New Fire: War, Peace and Democracy in the Age of AI (Cambridge, MS: MIT Press 2022), 140.
20 Christian Brose, The Kill Chain (New York: Hachette 2020), 170.
21 John Arquilla, Bitskrieg (Cambridge: Polity 2022), 14–15.
22 Stuart Russell, ‘AI and Warfare’, Reith Lecture (2021), https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00127t9
23 Russell, ‘AI and Warfare’.
24 Graham, Cities under Siege, 162.
25 Russell, ‘AI and Warfare’.
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27 Altmann and Sauer, ‘Autonomous Systems and Strategic Stability’, 123
28 Elsa Kania, Battlefield Singularity: 22–23; Elsa Kania, Chinese Military Innovation in Artificial intelligence: Hearing of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security 7 June 2019).
29 US Army E-6, interview, National Training Centre, 16 May 2023.
30 David Hume, A Treatise on Human Nature (Oxford: Oxford UP 1985), 141.
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32 Alex Neads, Theo Farrell, and David Galbreath, ‘Evolving towards Military Innovation: AI and the Australian Army’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 24 Apr. 2023, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2023.2200588
33 Antonio Calcara, Andrea Gilli, Mauro Gilli, Raffaele Marchetti and Ivan Zaccagnini ‘Why drones have not revolutionized war; the enduring hider-finder competition in air warfare’, International Security 46(4), 130–171.
34 Damien Van Puyvelde, Stephen Coulthart, and M. Shahriar Hossain, ‘Beyond the Buzzword: Big data and National Security Decision-Making’, International Affairs 93/6 (November 2017), 1397–1416.
35 Brian Cantwell Smith, The Promise of Artificial Intelligence (Cambridge, MS: MIT Press 2019); Erik Larson, The Myth of Artificial Intelligence (Cambridge, MS: Belknap Press 2021); Kenneth Cukier, Victor Mayer-Schönberger, and Francis de Véricourt, Framers (London: WH Allen Citation2021); Victor Mayer-Schönberger and Kenneth Cukier, Big Data (New York: Eamon Dolan Book, Mariner, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 2014); Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, Rebooting AI (New York: Pantheon 2019).
36 Scharre, Army of None, 4.
37 Alex Davies, ‘Google’s self-driving Car caused its First Crash’, Wired, https://www.wired.com/2016/02/googles-self-driving-car-may-caused-first-crash/
38 Goldfarb and Lindsay, ‘Prediction and Judgement’, 25.
39 Lee Gomes, ‘Hidden Obstacles for Google’s Self-Driving Car’, 28 Aug. 2014, https://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/
40 Michael Johnson and Alonso Vera, ‘No AI is an Island: The Case for Teaming Intelligence’, AI Magazine Spring, 2019, 18.
41 Anthony King, Urban War in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge: Polity 2021).
42 M.L. Cummings, ‘Lethal Autonomous Weapons: Meaningful Human Control or Meaningful Human Certification’, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine 38/1 (2019), 22.
43 Kate Crawford, Atlas of AI (London: Yale UP 2021), 98, 113, 127.
44 Lauren Wilcox, ‘Embodying Algorithmic War: Gender, Race and Posthuman in Drone Warfare’, Security Dialogue 48/1 (2017), 11–28.:
45 Jensen, Whyte, and Cuomo, ‘Algorithms at War’, 540.
46 Goldfarb and Lindsay, ‘Prediction and Judgment’, 17–18.
47 Goldfarb and Lindsay, ‘Prediction and Judgment’, 35.
48 Altmann and Sauer, ‘Autonomous Systems and Strategic Stability’, 130.
50 US Army E-6, interview, National Training Centre, 16 May 2023.
52 Altmann and Sauer, ‘Autonomous Systems and Strategic Stability’, 130.
53 David Johnson, M. Wade Markel, and Brian Shannon, The 2008 Battle for Sadr City: Reimagining Urban Combat (Santa Monica, CA: RAND 2013).
54 John Spencer, ‘Stealing the Enemy’s Urban Advantage: The Battle of Sadr City’, Modern War Institute 31 Jan. 2019, https://mwi.usma.edu/stealing-enemys-urban-advantage-battle-sadr-city/
56 Johnson et al., The Battle of Sadr City, 75.
57 Tim Ripley, Operation Aleppo: Russia’s war in Syria (Lancaster: Telic-Herrick Publications 2018), 52.
58 Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds ‘Ukraine at War: Paving the Road From Survival to Victory’ RUSI, Special Report, 4 July 2022. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory, 6–7.
59 Ukraine forces to retreat from embattled Severodonetsk: Governor’ Al Jazeera, 24 June 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/24/ukraine-forces-to-retreat-from-embattled-severodonetsk-governor.
60 Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans, Jakub Janovsky, Dan, and COIN ‘A Monument of Victory: the Bayraktar TB2 Kill List’ Oryx 23 February 2022. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/12/a-monument-of-victory-bayraktar-tb2.html.
61 Jakub Janovsky, naalsio26, Aloha, Dan, Kemal, and Alexander Black ‘Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine’ Oryx 24 February 2022. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html.
62 Robert Lee ‘The tank is not obsolete and other observations about the future of combat’ War on the Rocks, 6 September 2022. https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/the-tank-is-not-obsolete-and-other-observations-about-the-future-of-combat/.
63 Watling and Nick Reynolds ‘Ukraine at War’. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory, p. 6.
64 Sydney Freedman and Andrew Everson, ‘Firepower and people: army chief onkeys to future war’ Breaking Defence, 10 October 2022. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/10/firepower-people-army-chief-on-keys-to-future-war-exclusive/.
65 The Mosul Study Group, ‘What the Battle of Mosul Teaches the Force’, 2018, https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Primer-on-Urban-Operation/Documents/Mosul-Public-Release1.pdf
66 General Stephen Townsend, Multidomain battle in Megacities Conference, Fort Hamilton, New York, 3 Apr. 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARz0l_evGAE.
67 ‘Fighting for Rubizhne: How was it for You?’ https://twitter.com/Ich_Bryan/status/1521197408801095681.
69 David Kilcullen, ‘Emerging Patterns of Adversary Urban Operations’, RUSI Urban Warfare Conference Session 3, London 2 Feb. 2018; King, Urban Warfare in the Twenty-First Century, 211–2.
70 Gonzalez, War Virtually, 35–60.
71 Antal, 7 Seconds to Die, 85.
72 Calcara et al., ‘Why Drones have not Revolutionized War’, 169.
73 Carl von Clausewitz, On War (Princeton: Princeton UP 1984), 358.
74 Ajey Lele, Disruptive Technologies for the Militaries and Security (Singapore: Springer 2019), 30.
75 Altmann and Sauer, ‘Autonomous Systems and Strategic Stability’, 125.
76 Payne, Strategy, Evolution, and War, 179.
77 Clausewitz, On War, 77.
78 Stephen Biddle, Military Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP 2004).
79 The Mosul Study Group Citation2018, ‘What the Battle of Mosul Teaches the Force’, 30–31, https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Primer-on-Urban-Operation/Documents/Mosul-Public-Release1.pdf.
80 Ibid, 5.
81 Jensen, Whyte, and Cuomo, ‘Algorithms at War’, 541.
82 Robert Marks, The Case for Killer Robots: why America’s Military Needs to Continue to Development of Lethal AI (Seattle: Discovery Institute Press 2020), 48–9.
83 Marks, The Case for Killer Robots, 49.
86 US Army E-6, interview, National Training Centre, 16 May 2023.
87 Calcara, ‘Why Drones have not Revolutionized War’, 169.
88 Calcara, ‘Why Drones have not Revolutionized War’.
89 Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds (New York: WW Norton and Co 2023), 15.
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Anthony King
Anthony King is Professor of Defence and Security Studies and Director of the Strategy and Security Institute at the University of Exeter. His most recent book, Urban Warfare in the Twenty-First Century, was published by Polity in 2021. He is currently finishing a book on AI and military transformation which will be published by Princeton University Press in 2025.