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Abstract
Finland and Sweden are two countries with long histories of military non-alignment. In 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, both countries swiftly decided to apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Why and how does such a drastic policy change come about? In this paper, I assess realist theory of threat and show that despite their apparent similarity, the reactions of the Nordic nonaligned to the Russian aggression differed significantly. Finland immediately sought protection from NATO, while Sweden attempted to continue non-alignment. Ultimately, the two countries reached the same alignment conclusion through different causal mechanisms.
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to thank Stephanie Hofmann, Philipp Genschel, Håkan Edström, Kjell Engelbrekt, Jacob Westberg, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable thoughts and comments.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
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70 Strömberg and Nilsson, “Så gick det till när S vände om Nato.”
71 Gestrin-Hagner, “Erkki Tuomioja: Peter Hultqvist har fört fram finsk-svensk försvarsallians.”
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79 Lund and Jones, “Källor inifrån S.”
80 Ibid.
81 Strömberg and Nilsson, “Så gick det till när S vände om Nato.”
82 Peter Wallberg and TT, “Svenskt Natobesked närmar sig,” Svenska Dagbladet, May 1, 2022, https://www.svd.se/a/bGxjqq/svenskt-natobesked-narmar-sig (accessed August 6, 2023).
83 Holmström, “Peter Hultqvist: Exakt då ändrade jag mig om Nato.”
84 Strömberg and Nilsson, “Så gick det till när S vände om Nato.”
85 Hanna Jakobson, “Linde om Natomedlemskap: Vi är väl förberedda,” Dagens Nyheter, April 29, 2022b, https://www.dn.se/sverige/linde-om-natomedlemskap-vi-ar-val-forberedda/ (accessed August 6, 2023).
86 Evelyn Jones, Hanna Jakobson, and Lina Lund, “Interna protester i S om Natoprocessen: Går på tjack,” Dagens Nyheter, May 4, 2022, https://www.dn.se/sverige/interna-protester-i-s-om-natoprocessen-gar-pa-tjack/(accessed August 6, 2023); Hans Rosén and Hugo Ewald Hurinsky, “DN-enkät visar: Stor osäkerhet i S-gruppen om Nato,” Dagens Nyheter, May 4, 2022, https://www.dn.se/sverige/dn-enkat-visar-stor-osakerhet-i-s-gruppen-om-nato/ (accessed August 6, 2023).
87 Rosén and Ewald Hurinsky, “DN-enkät visar.”
88 Lund and Jones, “Källor inifrån S.”
89 Strömberg and Nilsson, “Så gick det till när S vände om Nato.”
90 Ds, Ett försämrat säkerhetspolitiskt läge - konsekvenser för Sverige (2022:7). https://www.regeringen.se/contentassets/b33a04c7ad954881ad6a571dc8553dbe/ett-forsamrat-sakerhetspolitiskt-lage–-konsekvenser-for-sverige_webb.pdf (accessed August 6, 2023).
91 Hans Rosén and Hans Olsson, “Historiskt beslut: Socialdemokraterna säger ja till Nato,” Dagens Nyheter, May 15, 2022, https://www.dn.se/sverige/socialdemokraterna-sager-ja-till-nato/(accessed August 6, 2023).
92 Tulikukka de Fresnes, Hannu Tikkala, and Laura Tolonen,” Suomi hakee Nato-jäsenyyttä – näin valtiojohto perusteli hakemista,” YLE, May 15, 2022, https://yle.fi/a/3-12446433 (accessed August 6, 2023).
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Anna Savolainen
Anna Savolainen ([email protected]) is a doctoral researcher at the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy.