Generative AI and Wargaming: What is it Good For?

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Notes

1 George Galdorisi, ‘Get Moving with Human-Machine Teaming’, US Naval Institute Proceedings (Vol. 148/8/1,434), August 2022.

2 Philipp Hacker, Andreas Engel and Marco Mauer, ‘Regulating ChatGPT and other Large Generative AI Models’, FAccT ‘23: Proceedings of the 2023 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (New York, NY: Association for Computing Machinery, 2023), p. 1113.

3 Jon Harper, ‘Pentagon Testing Generative AI in “Global Information Dominance” Experiments’, DefenseScoop, 14 July 2023, <https://defensescoop.com/2023/07/14/pentagon-testing-generative-ai-in-global-information-dominance-experiments/>, accessed 8 August 2023.

4 Katrina Manson, ‘The US Military Is Taking Generative AI Out for a Spin’, Bloomberg, 5 July 2023, <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-07-05/the-us-military-is-taking-generative-ai-out-for-a-spin>, accessed 8 August 2023.

5 See Scale AI, ‘Donovan: AI-powered Decision-making for Defense’, <https://scale.com/donovan>, accessed 16 August 2023; Palantir, ‘Driving Defence’s Digital Transformation’, <https://www.palantir.com/uk/defence/>, accessed 16 August 2023.

6 Ministry of Defence, ‘Defence Artificial Intelligence Strategy’, 15 June 2022, <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/defence-artificial-intelligence-strategy/defence-artificial-intelligence-strategy>, accessed 8 August 2023.

7 RAND Corporation, ‘Wargaming’, <https://www.rand.org/topics/wargaming.html>, accessed 25 July 2023.

8 Mark F Cancian, Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham, ‘The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 January 2023.

9 Roger C Mason, ‘Wargaming: Its History and Future’, International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs (Vol. 20, No. 2, 2018), pp. 77–101.

10 See Anna Knack and Rosamund Powell, ‘Artificial Intelligence in Wargaming: An Evidence-based Assessment of AI Applications’, CETaS Research Reports, Alan Turing Institute, June 2023; Paul K Davis and Paul Bracken, ‘Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Technology’, Journal of Defense Modelling and Simulation (2022), doi:10.1177/15485129211073.

11 Benjamin Jensen, Scott Cuomo and Chris Whyte, ‘Wargaming with Athena: How to Make Militaries Smarter, Faster, and More Efficient with Artificial Intelligence’, War on the Rocks, 5 June 2018.

12 NATO, ‘Bi-Strategic Collective Training and Exercise Directive’, 2 October 2013, <https://www.coemed.org/files/Branches/DH/Files_01/bi-sc-75-3_final.pdf>, accessed 8 August 2023.

13 Karen Weise and Cade Metz, ‘When AI Chatbots Hallucinate’, New York Times, 1 May 2023.

14 Mathew Hillier, ‘Why does ChatGPT Generate Fake References?’, TECHE, 20 February 2023, <https://teche.mq.edu.au/2023/02/why-does-chatgpt-generate-fake-references/>, accessed 16 August 2023.

15 The Royal Society, ‘Explainable AI: The Basics’, Policy Briefing (November 2019), p. 22.

16 Knack and Powell, ‘Artificial Intelligence in Wargaming', p. 33.

17 Ibid.

18 Ministry of Defence, ‘Wargaming Handbook’, August 2017, <https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/641040/doctrine_uk_wargaming_handbook.pdf>, accessed 3 August 2023.

19 Jack Nicas and Zach Wichter, ‘A Worry for Some Pilots: Their Hands-On Flying Skills Are Lacking’, New York Times, 14 March 2019.

20 Ministry of Defence, ‘Wargaming Handbook’.

21 Joe McKendrick and Andy Thurai, ‘AI Isn’t Ready to Make Unsupervised Decisions’, Harvard Business Review, 15 September 2022, <https://hbr.org/2022/09/ai-isnt-ready-to-make-unsupervised-decisions>, accessed 8 August 2023.

22 Knack and Powell, ‘Artificial Intelligence in Wargaming’, p. 10.

23 Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, ‘Dstl Leads the Army’s Largest Ever Force Development War Game’, 3 August 2023, <https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dstl-leads-the-armys-largest-ever-force-development-war-game>, accessed 8 August 2023.

24 Ajay Kumar and Tom Davenport, ‘How to Make Generative AI Greener’, Harvard Business Review, 20 July 2023, <https://hbr.org/2023/07/how-to-make-generative-ai-greener>, accessed 25 July 2023.

25 Ministry of Defence, ‘Cloud Strategic Roadmap for Defence’, 2 February 2023, <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cloud-strategic-roadmap-for-defence/cloud-strategic-roadmap-for-defence#roadmap-on-a-page>, accessed 25 July 2023.

26 Patrick Hinton, ‘Adversarial AI: Coming of Age or Overhyped?’, CETaS, September 2023, <https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/adversarial-ai-coming-age-or-overhyped>, accessed 26 October 2023.

27 Jonathan Vanian and Kif Leswing, ‘ChatGPT and Generative AI are Booming, But the Costs Can Be Extraordinary’, CNBC, updated on 17 April 2023.

28 Jeffrey Dastin, ‘Ukraine Is Using Palantir’s Software for "Targeting", CEO Says’, Reuters, 2 February 2023.

29 Hsiu-Min Chuang and Ding-Wei Cheng, ‘Conversational AI Over Military Scenarios Using Intent Detection and Response Generation’, Applied Sciences (Vol. 12, No. 5: 2494, 2022), p. 2.

30 Michael C Horowitz, ‘Trust, Confidence, and Organizational Decisions about AI Adoption: The Impact for US Defense’, Minerva Research Initiative, 28 August 2020, <https://minerva.defense.gov/Owl-In-the-Olive-Tree/Owl_View/Article/2328498/trust-confidence-and-organizational-decisions-about-ai-adoption-the-impact-for/>, accessed 8 August 2023.

31 Davis and Bracken, ‘Artificial intelligence for Wargaming and Technology’, p. 13.

32 Ministry of Defence, ‘Joint Concept Note 1/18: Human-Machine Teaming’, 21 May 2018, <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/human-machine-teaming-jcn-118>, accessed 8 August 2023.

33 Baptiste Alloui-Cros, ‘Does Artificial Intelligence Change the Nature of War?’, Military Strategy Magazine (Vol. 8, No. 3, 2022), <https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/does-artificial-intelligence-change-the-nature-of-war/>, accessed 8 August 2023.

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Patrick Hinton

Patrick Hinton is a British army officer. His professional experience includes ground-based air defence, uncrewed aerial systems and personnel management. He has an MA in International Relations from the University of Staffordshire and an MBA from Warwick Business School. From 2022 to 2023 he served as the British Army’s Visiting Fellow at RUSI, where his research focused on defence technology.