Choosing between prediction and explanation in geological engineering: lessons from psychology

ABSTRACT

In their highly influential paper, Yarkoni, Tal, and Jacob Westfall. 2017. “Choosing Prediction over Explanation in Psychology: Lessons from Machine Learning.” Perspectives on Psychological Science 12 (6):1100–1122. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617693393 the authors highlight difficulties in traditional explanatory research in the field of psychology and argue in favour of novel data-driven science. By applying machine-learning methods to large data sets, predictive power has been shown to increase significantly. Geological engineers are responsible for a wide range of applications, including the design of tunnels, dams, foundations, and mines. While the field of geological engineering stands on solid mechanistic grounds, we argue that its predictive aspect aligns more closely with psychology than other mechanistic sciences. We therefore propose a paradigm shift in geological engineering research towards a prediction-centric approach. Potentially, this could enhance cost-effectiveness in structural design and lead to substantial societal savings.

KEYWORDS:

• Geological engineering
• Rock mechanics
• Psychology
• Machine-learning
• Data science
• Prediction
• Explanatory models
• Factor of safety

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Amichai Mitelman

Dr Amichai Mitelman is a faculty member in the Department of Civil Engineering in Ariel University. He holds a PhD and an MSc in Mining Engineering from the University of British Columbia, an MA in Law, and a BTech in Civil Engineering. He is a practicing civil and tunnel engineer.

Beverly Yang

Beverly Yang is a PhD candidate in the Department of Mining Engineering at the University of British Columbia under the supervision of Dr Davide Elmo. She holds a BASc in geological engineering from the University of Waterloo.

Davide Elmo

Dr Davide Elmo is a professor of rock engineering in the Department of Mining Engineering at the University of British Columbia. He holds a PhD in Geomechanics from the University of Exeter (UK) and a BEng in Engineering Geology and Geotechnics from Portsmouth University (UK). He is a registered professional engineer (PEng) in British Columbia.

Yahel Giat

Prof Yahel Giat is a tenured faculty member in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Management in the Jerusalem College of Technology. He holds a PhD and an MSc in Industrial Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology, an MSc in Economics, a BSc in Electrical Engineering, and a BA in Computer Sciences from the Israel Institute of Technology.