Iran’s Troubled Relations with Afghanistan and Tajikistan: A Compound Alignment Dilemma

ABSTRACT

Afghanistan’s reversion to Taliban rule poses severe threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran faces a dilemma over how best to respond to these dangers: it could continue to conciliate the Taliban or it could revert to the antagonistic posture it adopted towards Kabul in the 1990s. While each of these strategies can improve Iran’s security situation to some extent, they also entail unintended consequences that exacerbate Iranian vulnerabilities. More importantly, whatever policy Tehran pursues has an impact on Iran’s nascent alignment with Tajikistan, as well as on Tajikistan’s relations with Afghanistan. The fact that Iran’s decision to conciliate the new leadership in Kabul did not prompt Dushanbe to scale back its belligerence towards the Taliban poses a puzzle for Glenn Snyder's concept of the alliance security dilemma. Its solution requires a reconsideration of adversary–ally dynamics that highlights the reciprocal interaction between shifts in inter-state alignment and changes in domestic political contestation.

KEYWORDS:

• security dilemma
• threat
• Afghanistan
• Iran
• Tajikistan

Notes

1 International relations scholars point out that we should distinguish (de facto) inter-state alignments from (formal) alliances. Studies of alliance politics often underscore this analytical distinction (Snyder 1997, 6-9) but then set it aside when push comes to shove (Snyder 1997, 165). After all, many alliances remain superficial, while some alignments – such as the one between the United States and Israel – prove remarkably tight and resilient. Alexander Lanoszka (2022, 15) asserts that alliances should be the primary object of scholarly inquiry, since alignments are so varied and amorphous. Thomas Wilkins (2012) argues that alignments are the more pertinent phenomenon, at least in the contemporary world. We agree with Wilkins that the term “alliance” usually conflates a broad spectrum of collaborative relationships, which would better be called alignments. We look forward to seeing studies that spell out how adversary–ally dynamics in formal alliances differ from those in ententes, concerts and other kinds of alignments.

2 Even though the militant group commonly known as the Haqqani Network is closely affiliated with the broad movement that calls itself the Taliban, intense rivalry among various components of the Taliban shapes the politics of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In particular, the Miran Shah Shurah has persistently wrestled with the Quetta Shurah and the Peshawar Shurah for influence over policy-making (Giustozzi 2022).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Fred H. Lawson

Fred H. Lawson is Professor of Government Emeritus of Mills College at Northeastern University, Oakland, CA, US.

Matteo Legrenzi

Matteo Legrenzi is Professor of International Relations at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy. Email: [email protected]