Effect of ambient temperature on daily hospital admissions for acute pancreatitis in Nanchang, China: A time-series analysis

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to evaluate the short-term effect of temperature on the risk of acute pancreatitis (AP) in southern China. We performed a time-series study of 2822 patients admitted with a first episode of AP in Nanchang between May 2014 and June 2017. A generalized additive model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the association of temperature and AP. In subgroup analysis, according to different etiologies of pancreatitis, significant associations were found between daily average temperature and non-biliary pancreatitis hospitalization at lags of 0–7 days, but not for biliary pancreatitis or total AP. Higher daily average temperature tended to increase the occurrence of non-biliary pancreatitis at lags of 0–7 days. These findings suggest that high temperature is associated with higher non-biliary pancreatitis risk in Nanchang, China. In the context of global warming, the morbidity of non-biliary pancreatitis may increase.

KEYWORDS:

• acute pancreatitis
• biliary pancreatitis
• daily average temperature
• distributed lag non-linear model
• non-biliary pancreatitis
• time-series analysis

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Climate Change Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF202035), and project of health commission of Jiangxi Province (No. 202130049).

Disclosure statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interest.

Author contributions

Li Bozhen and Wang Zhaohan designed the study and experiments; Li Bozhen and Wang Zhaohan, Chen Pengguo and Chen Jianyong evaluated the cases and collected data; Huang Wenzhong analyzed the data; Li Bozhen, Wang Zhaohan and Ivano Biviano wrote the paper.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Climate change special fund of China Meteorological Administration [No.CCSF202035]; project of health commission of Jiangxi Province [No. 202130049].