Temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths from 2007 to 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

ABSTRACT

Dengue, a disease with multifactorial determinants, is linked to population susceptibility to circulating viruses and the extent of vector infestation. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2020. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) were utilized for the investigation. To assess the disease's progression over the study period and predict its future incidence, time series analyses were conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Over the study period, a total of 463,566 dengue cases and 125 deaths were reported. Notably, there was an increase in severe cases and deaths, marking hyperendemics characterized by simultaneous virus circulation (79.17% in 2016–50% in 2019). The generalized additive model revealed a non-linear pattern with epidemic peaks in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, indicating an explosive pattern of dengue incidence. The SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,0,0)12 model was validated for each year (2015 to 2019). Comparing the actual and predicted numbers of dengue cases, the model demonstrated its effectiveness for predicting cases in the municipality. The rising number of dengue cases emphasizes the importance of vector surveillance and control. Enhanced models and predictions by local health services will aid in anticipating necessary control measures to combat future epidemics.

KEYWORDS:

• time-series
• arbovirus
• vulnerability
• epidemic
• prediction

Acknowledgements

We thank the epidemiological surveillance and zoonoses control services of the Municipal Health Department (Secretaria Municipal de Saúde) of Belo Horizonte, the team at the Observatório de Saúde Urbana de Belo Horizonte (OSUBH), responsible for the project BH-Viva. This research is a collaboration with the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), financed by the National Health Fund (Fundo Nacional de Saúde), under which the subproject Dengue was carried out.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq (funding code 433418/2018-4) and for the research fellowships of WTC, FRPB and AALF and to the Fulbright Student Research program, in partnership with the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES.