Hybrid modelling and simulation of the effect of vaccination on the COVID-19 transmission

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a rapidly changing pandemic that requires different mitigation strategies to maintain clinical preventive services, including vaccination. Countries around the world have started administering the authorised COVID-19 vaccines. However, the number of positive cases remains at high levels. This paper simulates the transmission of COVID-19 over time using a hybrid simulation model, consisting of agent-based and discrete event simulation approaches. The model allows simulating the spread of the virus under various parameters, such as hospital capacities and vaccination policy, to observe the effects of each parameter on the virus transmission. The model and results can provide insights on how the daily vaccination rates and available medical capacity affect the number of deaths and infections. The model can be used to determine the required medical resources and vaccine supplies over time not only for COVID-19 but also for future pandemics with similar characteristics.

KEYWORDS:

• Hybrid model
• agent based modelling
• discrete event simulation
• COVID-19
• vaccines

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The model and source files are available for download via this link: https://cloud.anylogic.com/model/cce98b37-3025-4ecb-87f9-cedd175f8a7e?mode=SETTINGS