Chapter Sixteen: The security of north-east Asia: part I

Abstract

Strategic links between Japan and Europe during the Cold War were limited. During this period the IISS helped bridge the gap between the two, exposing its membership base to the international affairs of Asia and Japan and providing Japanses scholars, strategists and diplomats with a platform from which to amplify their voices in the West. Analyses by these experts often appeared in IISS publications, but the Institute also gained key insights through its well-established conferences and lecture series. These initiatives illuminated Japanese strategic thinking and perspectives on contemporary critical issues in Japan’s and Asia’s foreign, security and defence policy.

This Adelphi book, through its collection of earlier analysis, helps the reader to understand the evolution of Japanese strategic thought from the 1960s until today, and shines a light on the continuities and changes in this thinking. New, original analysis of the material seeks to identify areas where such thinking was prescient and remains relevant to the contemporary strategic environment, and other areas where predictions failed or assumptions were proved wrong. These new essays were also informed by interviews of Japanese senior scholars and diplomats who spent time with the IISS. This book seeks to frame, educate and guide strategic thinking on the most pressing issues of today, both in and outside Japan and Asia, and will be of great interest to analysts, practitioners and students of international affairs.

Notes

1 New attitudes discernible, for instance, in Nakasone’s Peace Problems Study Group (Chairman: Masataka Kosaka), Kokusai kokka Nihon no soogoo anzen hoshoo seisaku ([Report on] Comprehensive security policy for an internationalist nation, Japan), December 1984, pp. 1–3. See also Chalmers Johnson, ‘Reflections on the Dilemmas of Japanese Defense’, Asian Survey, May 1986, pp. 557–72.

2 Calculated from the The Military Balance 1985–1986, (London: IISS, 1986).

3 Sankei Shimbun, 5 November 1985. See also Larry A. Niksch, ‘The Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula’, Korea and World Affairs, Summer 1986, p. 261.

4 Tooyoo Keizai Nippoo, 15 August 1986. In 1984 South Korea’s GNP was estimated at $81.1 bn, and that of North Korea at $14.7 bn. The Military Balance 1985–1986 gives $83 bn for South Korea’s GDP and $40 bn for North Korea. (op. cit. In note 2) pp. 126–7.

5 Japan, Defense Agency, Booei hakusho 1986 (Defense White Paper 1986), pp. 31–2; The Military Balance 1985–1986, p. 29.

6 The last item was revealed by US Secretary of Defense, Caspar Weinberger, in a press conference in Tokyo. See Sankei Shimbun, 7 September 1985, morning edition.

7 Sankei Shimbun, 7 September 1985, morning edition.

8 Sankei Shimbun, 9 August 1985, morning edition.

9 Ibid.

10 Shigeki Nishimura, ‘Soren: senzaiteki kyooi no jittai’ (The Soviet Union: the real state of its potential threat), Voice, November 1985, pp. 84–93.

11 See, for instance, US Department of Defense, Annual Report to the Congress, Fiscal Year 1987, pp. 66–7.

12 Calculated from Defense of Japan 1985 (Tokyo: The Japan Times, 1985), Asahi nenkan 1986 (Asahi Almanac 1986), p. 154; and Sekai Shuuho, August 12, 1986, p.72.

13 Based on the NATO definition of defence costs. See The Military Balance, 1985–1986, (op. cit. in note 2), pp. 40, 46 and 49.

14 Asagumo Shimbun, 10 July 1986.

15 Asagumo Shimbun Sha, Booei handobokku 1986 (Handbook on Defense, 1986), p. 71.

16 Masashi Nishihara, ‘Expanding Japan’s Credible Defense Role’, International Security, Winter 1983–4, pp. 180–205.

17 Defense of Japan 1985, p. 169.

18 For problems of Japanese participation in SDI research, see, for instance, Yasuto Fukushima, ‘SDI to Nihon no sanka mondai’ (SDI and problems of Japanese participation), Sekai Shuuhoo, 12 August 1986, pp. 12–17.

19 Asian Security 1985, (Tokyo: Research Institute for Peace and Security pp. 170–71.

20 Defense of Japan 1981, p. 120.

21 Tomohisa Sakanaka, ‘Nihon no kaku senryaku ga towareru toki’ (It’s time that Japan’s nuclear strategy was questioned), Voice, September 1985, pp. 232–43.

22 For views favouring a nuclear option for Japan, see, for instance, Ikutaro Shimizu, ‘Nihon yo, kokka tare!’ (Japan, be a state!), Shokun, July 1980, pp. 22–68; and Yatsuhiro Nakagawa, Gendai kaku senryaku ron (Contemporary nuclear strategies), Hara Shoboo, Tokyo, 1985, chapter 7.

23 For views favouring a slightly modified interpretation of the three non-nuclear principles, see, for instance, Masashi Nishihara, (op. cit., in note 16), p. 198.

24 A typical view advocating no action against SS-20 may be found, for instance, in Ken’ichi Ito, ‘SS-20 Kyokutoo haibi ni Nihon wa doo taioo subeki ka’ (How should Japan cope with the SS-20 deployed in the Far East?), Chuuoo Kooron, special issue, July 1983, pp. 88–99.

25 Masataka Kosaka, ‘Theater Nuclear Weapons and Japan’s Defense Policy’, in Richard Solomon and Masataka Kosaka, (eds) The Soviet Far East Military Buildup: Nuclear Dilemmas and Asian Security, (Dover, MA: Auburn House Publishing Co., 1986), pp. 123–140.