Chapter Twenty-Two: China debates missile defence

Abstract

Strategic links between Japan and Europe during the Cold War were limited. During this period the IISS helped bridge the gap between the two, exposing its membership base to the international affairs of Asia and Japan and providing Japanses scholars, strategists and diplomats with a platform from which to amplify their voices in the West. Analyses by these experts often appeared in IISS publications, but the Institute also gained key insights through its well-established conferences and lecture series. These initiatives illuminated Japanese strategic thinking and perspectives on contemporary critical issues in Japan’s and Asia’s foreign, security and defence policy.

This Adelphi book, through its collection of earlier analysis, helps the reader to understand the evolution of Japanese strategic thought from the 1960s until today, and shines a light on the continuities and changes in this thinking. New, original analysis of the material seeks to identify areas where such thinking was prescient and remains relevant to the contemporary strategic environment, and other areas where predictions failed or assumptions were proved wrong. These new essays were also informed by interviews of Japanese senior scholars and diplomats who spent time with the IISS. This book seeks to frame, educate and guide strategic thinking on the most pressing issues of today, both in and outside Japan and Asia, and will be of great interest to analysts, practitioners and students of international affairs.

Acknowledgements

The author is indebted to Yoichi Funabashi for all the guidance he provided her throughout the course of her research on the topic. She is also grateful to Peter Van Ness, Thomas Berger, Shen Dingli, Peter Almquist, Reinhard Drifte, Zhu Mingquan, Sijin Cheng, Kim Beng Phar, Lisa Sansoucy and Shinju Fujihira for their comments on the initial draft, as well as to James Malvenon, David Finkelstein, Evan Medeiros, Robert Sutter, Zhu Feng, Iain Johnston, James Przystup, Banning Garrett, Richard Nelson, Wayne Fujito, Yoshihisa Komori, John Newhouse, Kate Walsh, Kazuyasu Akashi, Joseph Fewsmith, William Grimes and countless other Chinese, American and Japanese specialists for their input and feedback on the project as a whole.

Notes

1 The Bush administration has reorganised ballistic-missile defence (BMD) by merging national missile defence (NMD) and theatre missile defence (TMD) into one conceptual framework. Given that both US and Japanese involvement in BMD will be addressed in this paper, for clarity’s sake US homeland defence will be referred to as NMD, and Japanese BMD as TMD (the Japanese government officially refers to its missile defence programme as BMD).

2 ‘Japan’s Push for Missile Defence: Benefits, Costs, Prospects’, Strategic Comments, vol. 9, no. 8, October 2003; Gary Schaefer, ‘Japan To Spend Billions on US-Designed Missile Shield in Defense Rethink’, Associated Press, 19 December 2003.

3 ‘Russia Ready To Negotiate Nuclear Arms Cuts, Despite US Withdrawal from ABM Treaty’, ibid., 18 December 2001.

4 ‘Unwise Move’, Renmin Jibao, 18 December 2001.

5 ‘Foreign Ministry spokesman on US missile defence plans’, Xinhua News Agency, 19 December 2002.

6 ‘China Concerned about Japan’s Missile Defense, Poison Gas’, Japan Economic Newswire, 3 September 2003.

7 ‘US–Japan Missile Defense Cooperation Worries China’, Xinhua News Agency, 19 December 2002.

8 Brad Roberts, ‘China and Ballistic Missile Defense: 1955 to 2002 to Beyond’, report published September 2003 by the Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA.

9 Interview with a Japanese BMD expert. Other experts, including government officials affiliated with the Foreign Ministry and Japan Defense Agency, have expressed similar views. Author interviews in Tokyo, 2000–2001.

10 ‘China Condemns US Missile Plans’, Associated Press, 25 November 1999.

11 For Chinese views on missile defence, see: Jing-Dong Yuan, ‘Chinese Responses to US Missile Defenses: Implications for Arms Control and Regional Security’, The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 10, no. 1, Spring 2003; Dingli Shen, ‘What Missile Defense Says to China’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 56, no. 4, July–August 2000; Yan Xuetong, ‘Theater Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security’, Nonproliferation Review, vol. 6, no. 3, Spring/Summer 1999; Thomas Christensen, ‘China, the US– Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia’, International Security, vol. 23, no. 4, Spring 1999; Kori Urayama, ‘Chinese Perspectives on Theater Missile Defense (TMD): Policy Implications for Japan’, Asian Survey, vol. 40, no. 4, July– August 2000.

12 Joanne Tompkins, ‘Influences on Chinese Nuclear Planning’, a report for the Stimson Fellowship in China, Summer 2002, p. 21.

13 Li Bin, ‘The Impact of US NMD on Chinese Nuclear Modernization’, paper prepared for the Pugwash Conference, April 2001.

14 Yan Xuetong, ‘Theater Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security’, p. 70. Also see Shen, ‘What Missile Defense Says to China’.

15 Shen, ‘What Missile Defense Says to China’.

16 Michael McDevitt, ‘Missile Defense: Beijing’s Bind’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 23, no. 3, summer 2000, p. 179.

17 Yan, ‘Theater Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security’, p. 71.

18 Interviews in China, 1999–2001.

19 ‘Chinese Premier’s Press Conference, Full Text’, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 16 March 1999.

20 Interviews in Beijing and Shanghai, 1999–2001.

21 This is not a uniquely Chinese view. A number of Japanese government officials have expressed concerns that BMD (especially NMD) implies the consolidation of US hegemony and unilateralism, and that this could pose diplomatic and security dangers, globally as well as regionally. These comments were made before the US debate on the invasion of Iraq. Author’s private communications with Japanese diplomats, 2000–2002.

22 For Chinese views on U.S. pursuit of ‘unilateralist absolute security’, see Xu Weidi, ‘Unilateral Security? U.S. Arms Control Policy and Asian-Pacific Security’, The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 9, no. 2, summer 2002; Tian Jingmei, ‘The Bush Administration’s Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China’s Security’, CISAC Working Paper, March 2003; and Yong Deng, ‘Hegemon on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives on U.S. Global Strategy’, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 116, no. 3, fall 2001.

23 Joanne Tompkins, ‘Influences on Chinese Nuclear Planning’, a Report on the Stimson Center Fellowship in China, Summer 2002, p. 15, http://www.stimson.org/inchina/pdf/InfCNPTompkins.pdf

24 You Ji, ‘The Dark Cold War Clouds Over the Asia-Pacific Region’, paper prepared for the IISS annual conference, ‘The Powers in Asia, Manila, 14–17 September 2000.

25 Jiang Zemin, ‘The Way To Get On With Nuclear Disarmament’, International Herald Tribune, 16 June 1999.

26 ‘Russia, China say arms threat to outer space is growing’, Associated Press, 31 July 2003.

27 China is not a formal member of the MTCR, though it has made a pledge (in the US–China bilateral context) to abide by it.

28 Li Bin, ‘Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) and the Missile Technology Control Regime’, paper prepared for ‘East Asian Regional Security Futures: Theater Missile Defence Implications’, conference organised by the Nautilus Institute, Tokyo, 24–25 June 2000, http://www.nautilus.org/nukepolicy/tmd-conference/libinpaper.html

29 Interviews in Beijing and Shanghai, 1999–2001.

30 ‘Sino-Russian Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Communiqué Issued’, Xinhua News Agency, 16 April 1999.

31 ‘Shanghai Five Nations Stress Unconditional Respect for ABM Treaty’, ibid., 6 July 2000.

32 Ted Carpenter, ‘Bush Tries To Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China’, Cato Daily Commentary, 3 August 2001.

33 ‘US–Russia Defense Cooperation Seen’, CDI Russia Weekly, no. 211, 20 June 2002. Russia does not have much to spend on the project, and thus plans for US–Russian missile-defence cooperation remain tentative.

34 Shen, ‘What Missile Defense Says to China’.

35 Interview with Chinese arms-control expert, November 2003. A similar view was expressed by a Chinese security expert in February 2004.

36 Author interview with Chinese arms-control expert, February 2003.

37 Interview with a Chinese security expert, November 2003.

38 Yuan, ‘Chinese Responses to US Missile Defenses’, p. 76.

39 The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, DoD report to Congress, 12 July 2002. This states that, in March 2002, ‘China announced a 17.6% or $3 billion increase in spending, bringing the publicly reported total to $20 billion’, but that the ‘total spending is closer to $65 billion’.

40 Yuan, ‘Chinese Responses to US Missile Defenses’, p. 87.

41 Interviews with China experts, Washington DC, Summer 2003.

42 Yoichi Funabashi, ‘China’s Long-Term Strategy: Peaceful Ascendancy’, Asahi Shimbun, 2 December 2003; Tadashi Itoh, ‘Sekai no shijou wo buki ni shita chuugoku gaikou no hikari to kage’, Foresight, September 2003, p. 20.

43 Author’s private communication with a Chinese security expert, November 2003.

44 According to Narushige Michishita, an analyst for NIDS, a Japanese government think-tank, some Chinese analysts have begun to argue that it would be ‘acceptable’ for China even if US forces were deployed up to the northern part of a unified Korea, provided that the US continues to play a ‘constructive’ role in the region. Author’s private communication, January 2004.

45 Bonnie Glaser, ‘Beijing Ponders How Hard To Press North Korea,’ PacNet Newsletter, 23 December 2002.

46 Robert Sutter, ‘China and Japan: Trouble Ahead?’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 4, Autumn 2002, p. 47.

47 Yang Bojiang, ‘Sino-Japanese Relations Entering a New Stage’, Kokusai Mondai, January 2003.

48 Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor, ‘China’s New Diplomacy’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 82, no. 6, November– December 2003.

49 Interview with a Chinese security expert, November 2003.

50 Feng Zhaokui, ‘Factors Shaping Sino-Japanese Relations’, Contemporary International Relations, September 2001.

51 Interview with Chinese security experts, February and November 2003.

52 Ibid.

53 Ibid.

54 Interview with a Chinese security expert, November 2003.

55 Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 2003, p. 31.

56 Shen, ‘What Missile Defense Says to China’.

57 Quoted in Jim Mann, ‘China Snarls Against a “Paper Tiger”’, Los Angeles Times, 19 January 2000.

58 Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 2003, p. 48.

59 Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 2002.

60 Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 2003, p. 36.

61 Deutsche Press-Agentur, 20 October 2003.

62 Roberts, ‘China and Ballistic Missile Defense’. A similar point has been made by a number of Chinese arms-control experts.

63 Interviews in Beijing, 2000.

64 Bill Gertz, ‘China Tests Arms Designed To Fool Defense Systems’, Washington Times, 23 July 2002.

65 Malik Mohan, ‘China and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 1 December 2000.

66 Interview with Chinese security expert, November 2003.

67 ‘China proposes a treaty to prevent arms race in space for TMD containment at Geneva CD’ (Japanese), Yomiuri Shimbun, 18 Feburary 2000.

68 Yuan, ‘Chinese Responses to US Missile Defenses’, p. 87

69 Kenneth Timmerman, ‘Rumsfeld Demands China Reciprocity’, Insight, 15 July 2002.

70 Christopher Paine, ‘Moscow Treaty: Making Matters Worse’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2002.

71 Paul Godwin, ‘Potential Chinese Responses to US Ballistic Missile Defense’, in Romberg and McDevitt (eds), China and Missile Defense, pp. 61–71.

72 Ibid., p. 68.

73 Romberg and McDevitt (eds), China and Missile Defense, p. 26.

74 Interviews in Tokyo, 2000–2001.

75 Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 2003, p. 31.

76 Interviews in Beijing, 1999–2001.

77 Thanks to Iain Johnston for raising this point.

78 See Jonathan Pollack, ‘The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework’, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003.

79 Willy Wo-Lap Lam, ‘China Looks Ahead to Korea Crisis’, CNN World News, 18 March 2003.

80 ‘Wary China Ups Diplomatic Pressure’, Reuters, 7 July 2003. See also Meeting the North Korean Nuclear Challenge, Report of an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, May 2003.

81 John Pomfret, ‘China Urges North Korea Dialogue’, Washington Post, 4 April 2003.

82 Lam, ‘China Looks Ahead’.

83 ‘Wary China Ups Diplomatic Pressure’.

84 Meeting the North Korean Nuclear Challenge, p. 9.

85 Karen D. Young and Doug Struck, ‘Beijing’s Help Led to Talks’, Washington Post, 17 April 2003.

86 Interviews in Washington DC, Summer 2003.

87 Interviews in Washington DC, Summer 2003.

88 Author’s private communication with a Chinese security expert, January 2004.

89 W. Slocombe, M. Carns, J. Gansler, R. Nelson (eds.), Missile Defense in Asia, (Washington DC: The Atlantic Council, June 2003), p. vii.

90 Interview with a Chinese arms-control expert, November 2003.