5 Asia

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Notes

1 ‘Yearly Fatalities’, Datasheet – Jammu & Kashmir, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

2 Ibid.

3 When referring to developments before 15 August 2019, the acronym ‘J&K’ refers to the state of Jammu and Kashmir (including Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh regions, which India controls). For developments after the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of J&K in 2019, J&K refers to the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (including Jammu and Kashmir regions, which India controls).

4 Manny Maung, ‘Myanmar Junta Dissolves Political Parties’, Human Rights Watch, 29 March 2023; and ‘Myanmar Junta Extends Martial Law in Resistance Stronghold Sagaing Region’, Irrawaddy, 23 February 2023.

5 John Reed and Jyotsna Singh, ‘India’s Manipur State Riven by Ethnic Violence’, Financial Times, 15 June 2023.

6 ‘Majority-minority’ groups refers to ethnic and religious groups that are a minority relative to the national population but make up the majority in a particular province or area.

7 Alcis, ‘Unprecedented Reduction of Opium Production in Afghanistan’, 2023.

8 Leo Sands, ‘Pakistan Floods: One Third of Country Is Under Water – Minister’, BBC, 30 August 2022.

9 Joshua Kurlantzick, ‘ASEAN’s Complete Failure on Myanmar: A Short Overview’, Council on Foreign Relations, 29 August 2022.

10 Jim Garamone, ‘U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader in Kabul’, US Department of Defense, 2 August 2022.

11 Bharti Jain, ‘Assam Government Signs Peace Agreement with Insurgents’, Times of India, 15 September 2022; and K. Sarojkumar Sharma, ‘Centre, Manipur Rebel Outfit Sign Peace Pact’, Times of India, 28 December 2022.

12 Ariba Shahid, ‘Pakistan, IMD Reach $3 Billion Staff-level Agreement’, Reuters, 30 June 2023; and IMF, ‘IMF Reaches Staff-level Agreement with Pakistan on a US$3 Billion Stand-by Arrangement’, Press Release no. 23/251, 29 June 2023.

13 The Wire Staff, ‘India Tells China: No Change in LaC or LoC After Recent Moves’, Wire, 12 August 2019.

14 Bloomberg News, ‘China Says India’s Kashmir Move “Unacceptable”, Undermines Its Territorial Sovereignty’, Print, 6 August 2019.

15 UNI, ‘In Response to US, PLA Conducts Military Exercises Off Taiwan’, The North-East Affairs, 25 May 2022.

1 A 2022 UN report called the TTP ‘the largest component of foreign terrorist fighters in Afghanistan’. UN Security Council (UNSC), ‘Thirtieth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2610 (2021) Concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and Associated Individuals and Entities’, S/2022/547, 15 July 2022, p. 17. 2023 estimates of the group’s strength range from 4,000–6,000 fighters in Afghanistan. The group’s strength in Pakistan is unknown, though there may be several thousand fighters in the country. UNSC, ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2023/370, 1 June 2023, p. 17.

2 Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), ‘No PR-246/2015-ISPR’, 13 August 2015.

3 ‘490 Soldiers, 3,500 Militants Killed in Operation Zarb-e-Azb So Far: DG ISPR’, Express Tribune, 15 June 2016; and UNSC, ‘Seventh Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2255 (2015) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace, Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2016/842, 5 October 2016, p. 13.

4 ISPR, ‘General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Along with Federal Interior Minister, CM and Home Minister Balochistan, Commander Southern Command Met Representatives of Hazara Community at Quetta’, No PR-154/2018-ISPR, 2 May 2018; and ISPR, ‘No PR-507/2016-ISPR’, 29 December 2016.

5 UNSC, ‘Tenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2255 (2015) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace, Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2019/481, 13 June 2019, p. 18.

6 UNSC, ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, p. 17.

7 ‘Death Toll from Peshawar Mosque Bombing Rises to 101 as Police Say “Major Arrests” Made’, Dawn, 1 February 2023.

8 Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming, ‘The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan After the Taliban’s Afghanistan Takeover’, CTC Sentinel, vol. 18, no. 5, May 2023.

9 UNSC, ‘Thirteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2611 (2021) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2022/419, 26 May 2022, p. 21; and UNSC, ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, pp. 13–14, 20.

10 See, for example, ISPR, ‘On 20 May 23, Security Forces Conducted an Intelligence Based Operation in General Area Tank, on Reported Presence of Terrorists’, No PR-63/2023-ISPR, 20 May 2023.

1 ‘Kabul Attack: Death Toll Rises to 35 Mostly “Girls, Young Women”’, Al-Jazeera, 1 October 2022.

2 UN Security Council (UNSC), ‘Security Council Press Statement on Attack in Herat’, 3 September 2022.

3 Mohammad Yunus Yawar, ‘Two Russian Embassy Staff Dead, Four Others Killed in Suicide Bomb Blast in Kabul’, Reuters, 5 September 2022.

4 Munir Ahmed, ‘IS Claims Attack at Pakistan Embassy That Wounded Guard’, AP News, 4 December 2022.

5 Nadine Yousif, ‘Taliban Kill IS Leader Behind Kabul Airport Bombing’, BBC, 26 April 2023.

6 Human Rights Watch, ‘Afghanistan: Taliban Execute, “Disappear” Alleged Militants’, 7 July 2022.

7 ‘Russia Assumes That Taliban Is a Reality, and Talks with Them Are Necessary – Lavrov’, TAAS, 26 April 2023.

8 William Byrd, ‘Taliban Are Collecting Revenue – But How Are They Spending It?’, United States Institute of Peace, 2 February 2022.

9 UNSC, ‘Sixteenth Report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to International Peace and Security and the Range of United Nations Efforts in Support of Member States in Countering the Threat’, S/2023/76, 1 February 2023, p. 8.

10 UNSC, ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2023/370, 1 June 2023, p. 14.

11 UNSC, ‘Twelfth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2557 (2020) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2021/486, 1 June 2021, p. 12.

12 Ayaz Gul, ‘Taliban Raid Kills 8 Afghan Opposition Fighters’, VOA, 11 April 2023.

1 Michael Kugelman and Adam Weinstein, ‘In Pakistan, a Tale of Two Very Different Political Movements’, Lawfare, 4 January 2021.

2 SAMRI (@SAMRIReports), tweet, 29 April 2022.

3 ‘Death Toll from Peshawar Mosque Bombing Rises to 101 as Police Say “Major Arrests” Made’, Dawn, 1 February 2023.

4 Imtiaz Ali, ‘Security Forces Clear Karachi Police Chief’s Office on Sharea Faisal, 3 Terrorists Killed’, Dawn, 17 February 2023.

5 Leo Sands, ‘Pakistan Floods: One Third of Country Is Under Water – Minister’, BBC, 30 August 2022.

6 Refers to ‘inflation rate, end of period consumer prices’. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2023.

7 Irshad Ansari, ‘Rupee Downfall: Pakistani Currency Endured Historic Lows in 2022’, Tribune, 27 December 2022.

8 ‘SBP’s Foreign Reserves Up After $300 Million Loan’, Geo News, 20 April 2023.

9 United Nations Security Council (UNSC), ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2023/370, 1 June 2023, p. 17; Asfandyar Mir, ‘Afghanistan’s Terrorism Challenge: The Political Trajectories of Al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and the Islamic State’, Middle East Institute, 20 October 2020; US Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, ‘Operation Freedom’s Sentinel: Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress’, 21 May 2019, p. 25; and Daud Khattak, ‘The Pakistan Taliban Is Back’, Diplomat, 9 March 2021.

10 UNSC, ‘Sixteenth Report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to International Peace and Security and the Range of United Nations Efforts in Support of Member States in Countering the Threat’, S/2023/76, 1 February 2023, p. 8.

11 UNSC, ‘Fourteenth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan’, S/2023/370, 1 June 2023, p. 14.

1 Sameer P. Lalwani and Gillian Gayner, ‘India’s Kashmir Conundrum: Before and After the Abrogation of Article 370’, Special Report no. 473, United States Institute of Peace, August 2020, p. 6.

2 When referring to developments before 15 August 2019, the acronym ‘J&K’ refers to the state of Jammu and Kashmir (including Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh regions, which India controls). For developments after the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of J&K in 2019, J&K refers to the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (including Jammu and Kashmir regions, which India controls).

3 Fayaz Bukhari, ‘India’s Jammu and Kashmir Gets First Foreign Investment from Dubai’s Emaar’, Reuters, 20 March 2023.

4 Michael Kugelman, ‘India Projects Image of Normalcy from Kashmir’, Foreign Policy, 13 April 2023.

5 Rupam Jain and Kanupriya Kapoor, ‘How India’s Ruling Party Is Tightening Its Grip on Kashmir’, Reuters, 12 January 2023.

6 ‘Jammu Gets 6 New Assembly Constituencies, 12 Segments Reserved for STs, SCs’, Print, 5 May 2022.May 5 (PTI

7 Peerzada Ashiq, ‘Militants Gun Down Kashmiri Pandit, New Terror Outfit Claims Hand in Killing’, Hindu, 26 February 2023.

8 ’Jammu & Kashmir; Assessment – 2023’, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

9 ‘Yearly Fatalities’, Datasheet – Jammu & Kashmir, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

10 Ajit Kumar Singh, ‘Jammu and Kashmir: Tense Peace’, South Asia Intelligence Review, vol. 21, no. 40, 27 March 2023.

11 ‘Yearly Explosions’, Datasheet – Jammu & Kashmir, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

12 Jammu & Kashmir: Timeline (Terrorist Activities) – 2022, South Asia Terrorism Portal; and Jammu & Kashmir: Timeline (Terrorist Activities) – 2023, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

13 Estimates. See Anushka Vats, ‘Cenre Plans to Replace Indian Army with CRPF in Kashmir Valley; Withdrawl to be Done in Phased Manner’, English Jagran, 20 February 2023; Zulfikar Majid, ‘No Final Call by Centre on Removal of Army from Kashmir Valley’, Deccan Herald, 23 February 2023; Snehesh Alex Philip, ‘What Imran Khan Says Is 9 Lakh Soldiers in Kashmir Is Actually 3.43 Lakh Only’, Print, 12 November 2019; and Manjeet Negi, ‘60,000 Chinese Troops Deployed Near Indian Border, Indian Army Also Enhances Troops in Ladakh’, India Today, 3 January 2022.

14 Numbers as of February 2023. UN Peacekeeping, ‘UNMOGIP Fact Sheet’.

15 Estimated from the January 2021–December 2021 approved budget. Ibid.

1 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), www.acleddata.com.

2 ‘Five Killed in Junta Airstrike on Chin Resistance Force Headquarters Near Myanmar–India Border’, Myanmar Now, 12 January 2023; and Nyein Swe and Aung Naing, ‘Two Months After Deadly Air Raid, Hpakant Remains on High Alert’, Myanmar Now, 29 December 2022.

3 ‘Myanmar Junta Extends Martial Law in Resistance Stronghold Sagaing Region’, Irrawaddy, 23 February 2023.

4 Maung Shwe Wah, ‘In Myanmar’s Heartland, New Horrors from a Junta Struggling for Control’, Myanmar Now, 11 March 2023.

5 News Wires, ‘Death Toll Climbs to at Least 170 in Myanmar Junta Air Strike on Village’, France 24, 14 April 2023.

6 Data for Myanmar, Facebook post, 13 June 2023. The data covers 1 May 2021–31 May 2023.

7 UN Children’s Fund, ‘Myanmar Country Office: Humanitarian Situation Report No. 4’, June 2023.

8 Ingyin Naing, ‘Peace Talks in Myanmar Highlight China’s Increasing Influence’, VOA, 4 June 2023.

9 Gwen Robinson, ‘Myanmar Tests Indonesia’s Resolve as ASEAN Fissures Deepen’, Nikkei Asia, 19 April 2023.

10 Agence France-Presse in Yangon, ‘Myanmar Junta Extends State of Emergency, Delaying Promised Elections’, Guardian, 2 February 2023.

11 Manny Maung, ‘Myanmar Junta Dissolves Political Parties’, Human Rights Watch, 29 March 2023; and Ye Myo Hein (@ YeMyoHein5), tweet, 29 March 2023.

12 Ye Myo Hein, ‘Understanding the People’s Defence Forces in Myanmar’, United States Institute of Peace, 3 November 2023.

13 ‘The Ministry of Defence Under the National Unity Government Announced on 16 April That People’s Defence Forces Will Be Equipped with More Arms’, BNI, 21 April 2023.

14 Ye Myo Hein, ‘Understanding the People’s Defence Forces in Myanmar’.

15 Strength numbers for the KNLA/KNU, KIA/KIO and the Brotherhood Alliance are the author’s own estimates. For further information see Stein Tønnesson, Min Zaw Oo and Ne Lynn Aung, ‘Pretending to Be States: The Use of Facebook by Armed Groups in Myanmar’, Journal of Contemporary Asia, vol. 52, no. 2, May 2021; and Bertil Lintner, ‘Rebel Yell: Arakan Army Leader Speaks to Asia Times’, Asia Times, 18 January 2022.

16 See Antonio Graceffo, ‘How China Prolongs Myanmar’s Endless Internal Conflicts’, Jamestown Foundation China Brief, vol. 23, no. 5; and Morgan Michaels, ‘Battle for Kayah Is Key for Myanmar Junta and Its Opponents’, IISS Myanmar Conflict Map, June 2023.

17 Ye Myo Hein, ‘One Year On: The Momentum of Myanmar’s Armed Rebellion’, Wilson Center, May 2022.

18 Khin Yi Yi Zaw, ‘Chin Armed Group Attacks, Disables Junta Vehicles on Road to Hakha’, Myanmar Now, 14 April 2023.

19 Bertil Lintner, ‘Silence on Coup Makes Strategic Sense for Myanmar’s Wa’, Irrawaddy, 12 July 2021.

20 Anthony Davis, ‘Wa an Early Winner of Myanmar’s Post-coup War’, Asia Times, 22 February 2022.

1 Bharti Jain, ‘Assam Government Signs Peace Agreement with Insurgents’, Times of India, 15 September 2022; and K. Sarojkumar Sharma, ‘Centre, Manipur Rebel Outfit Sign Peace Pact’, Times of India, 28 December 2022.

2 K. Sarojkumar Sharma, ‘Manipur Pulls Out of Ceasefire Pact with 2 Kuki Militant Groups’, Times of India, 12 March 2023.

3 Numbers are as of 3 July 2023 and 11 June 2023, respectively. Umang Sharma, ‘Manipur Violence: One Beheaded, Three Shot Dead’, Firstpost, 3 July 2023; and ‘Manipur Violence: Over 50,000 Displaced People Staying in 349 Relief Camps’, Economic Times, 11 June 2023.

4 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), www.acleddata.com. ACLED data collection for Manipur began in 2016.

5 See ‘Yearly Fatalities’, Datasheet – Maoist Insurgency, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

6 Anurag Dwary and Divyanshu Dutta Roy, ‘10 Cops, Driver Killed in Blast by Maoists in Chhattisgarh’s Dantewada’, NDTV, 26 April 2023.

7 Including the NSCN–Kitovi-Neokpao/Unification, NSCN–R, NNC/Federal Government of Nagaland, NNC–Parent, National People’s Government of Nagaland/Naga National Council–Non-Accord, Government of the Democratic Republic of Nagaland/ Naga National Council–Non-Accord and the NSCN–KK.

8 K.S. Vangamla Salle, ‘Manipur: Suspension of Operation with Kuki Groups Extended for Six Months’, EastMojo, 27 February 2021.

9 ‘“40% of Armed Maoists in Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra Region Are Women”’, Hindustan Times, 15 August 2021.

10 Including the PLAM, People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), PREPAK–Progressive, United National Liberation Front, Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup and the Kangleipak Communist Party.

1 Matthew Wheeler, ‘Behind the Insurgent Attack in Southern Thailand’, International Crisis Group, 8 November 2019.

2 Figures are for 2020. World Bank, ‘Thailand Rural Income Diagnostic: Challenges and Opportunities for Rural Farmers’, October 2022.

3 Michael Hart, ‘Despite Recent Attacks, Southern Thailand’s Peace Talks Are Making Progress’, World Politics Review, 21 June 2022.

4 Tassanee Vejpongsa, ‘Malaysian PM Vows to Help Thailand Solve Southern Violence’, AP News, 9 February 2023.

5 ‘Grading Thailand’s 13 Successful Coups’, Thai Enquirer, 22 May 2020.

6 The estimated 79,000 paramilitary and militia personnel in southern Thailand comprise 8,000 VDC members, 59,000 Village Defence Volunteers, 4,000 Village Protection Volunteers and an estimated 8,000 Rangers. It is unknown how many BPP officers are in the south. See Paul Chambers, ‘Irregular and Inappropriate: Thailand’s Paramilitaries and Pro-government Militias’, Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 12 April 2021.

7 Pro-government Militias Guidebook, ‘Village Protection Volunteers (Or Ror Bor ) (Thailand)’.

8 Srisompob Jitpiromsri, Napisa Waitoolkiat and Paul Chambers, ‘Special Issue: Quagmire of Violence in Thailand’s Southern Borderlands Chapter 1: Introduction’, Asian Affairs: An American Review, vol. 45, no. 2, 28 April 2019.

9 Mariyam Ahmad, Muzliza Mustafa and Nisha David, ‘In Thai Deep South, Another Rebel Group Wants Role in Peace Talks’, Benar News, 24 June 2022.

1 See Amnesty International, ‘Philippines: “Battle of Marawi” Leaves Trail of Death and Destruction’, 17 November 2017.

2 Riyaz ul Khaliq, ‘Bangsamoro Administration Reappointed, Elections in 2025’, Anadolu Agency, 19 August 2022.

3 Ferdinandh B. Cabrera, ‘4 BARMM Governors Ask Palace to Hasten Decommissioning of MILF’, Minda News, 24 February 2023.

4 Frencie Carreon, ‘Abu Sayyaf Becoming a Thing of the Past, Wesmincom Chief Claims’, Rappler, 4 January 2023.

5 Julie S. Alipala, ‘AFP Reduces Troop Presence in Sulu; Improved Security Status Cited’, Inquirer, 3 September 2022.

6 BenarNews Staff, ‘“Tired” Abu Sayyaf Members Surrender to Philippine Military’, Benar News, 8 November 2022.

7 Edwin Fernandez, ‘Marines Capture DI-MG Lair in Lanao Sur’, Philippine News Agency, 13 December 2022.

8 Llanesca T. Panti, ‘Basilan Rep. Hataman Sees Flaws in MILF Decommissioning Process’, GMA News, 14 November 2022.

9 Priam Nepomuceno, ‘Joint Peace Security Team Activated in Lanao Norte Town’, Philippine News Agency, 12 December 2022.

10 Jojo Riñoza and Richel V. Umel, ‘Philippine Military Chief: Communist Guerrillas Down to 24 Fronts Nationwide’, Benar News, 3 November 2022.

11 Carina Cayon, ‘End of Communist Terrorism in Eastern Mindanao Nears as 18 NPA Units Dismantled in 2022’, Philippine Information Agency, 3 January 2023.

12 Reuters, ‘Self-exiled Philippine Communist Leader Sison Dies at 83’, VOA, 17 December 2022.

13 Stanford University, Center for International Security and Cooperation, ‘Communist Party of the Philippines – New People’s Army’.