Lowering the colorectal cancer screening age improves predicted outcomes in a microsimulation model

Figures & data

Figure 1. Life-years gained (LYG) with triennial mt-sDNA and annual FIT assuming reported real-world or theoretical perfect adherence and screening start ages of 45 or 50 years.

Table 1. Screening outcomes per 1000 individuals by adherence rate for triennial mt-sDNA and annual FIT in individuals free of diagnosed colorectal cancer at age 40 and screened between ages 50–75 years or 45–75 years.

Strategy	Stool test adherence (%)	Stool tests	COLs	Follow-up COLs	Surveillance COLs	COLs for symptoms	Total COLs	Complications	CRC cases	CRC deaths	LY with CRC	LYG	Incidence reduction (%)	Mortality reduction (%)
No screening	N/A	0	0	0	0	80	80	2	80.1	36.4	644.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
mt-sDNA 45-75, 3	100	7214	0	934	1241	16	2191	11	26.1	9.2	287.5	319.5	67.4	74.7
mt-sDNA 50-75, 3	100	6078	0	813	1121	18	1951	11	28.6	10.2	332.9	297.3	64.3	72.1
mt-sDNA 45-75, 3	71	6516	0	858	1171	18	2047	11	28.5	10.3	310.5	307.4	64.5	71.7
mt-sDNA 50-75, 3	71	5433	0	734	1059	20	1813	10	31.2	11.4	351.8	283.5	61.1	68.7
FIT 45-75, 1	100	19,167	0	937	1330	14	2280	11	22.8	7.7	262.3	339.0	71.5	78.8
FIT 50-75, 1	100	15,861	0	808	1208	15	2031	11	25.5	8.7	312.0	315.6	68.1	76.1
FIT 45-75, 1	43	9795	0	533	927	25	1484	9	37.1	13.6	395.8	269.0	53.7	62.7
FIT 50-75, 1	43	8099	0	461	824	27	1312	9	40.2	14.9	436.1	244.6	49.9	59.0

Abbreviations. COL, colonoscopy; CRC, colorectal cancer; FIT, fecal immunochemical test; LY, life-years; LYG, life-years gained; mt-sDNA, multitarget stool DNA test.

Figure 2. CRC cases and deaths per 1000 individuals with triennial mt-sDNA and annual FIT assuming reported real-world or theoretical perfect adherence and screening start ages of 45 or 50 years. *p<.0001 vs. age 50.