Continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism: evidence from Ethiopia

Figures & data

Table 2. Typology of elections.

Election Year	No. of contested parties	Was the elections competitive	Was the elections free and fair	The incumbent’s vote share (%)	The incumbent’s seat share (%)	Election classification
1995	47	No	No	82.87	99.5	Hegemonic
2000	49	No	No	95.1	95	Hegemonic
2005	70	Yes	No	62.65	68	Competitive
2010	63	No	No	94.6(e)	99.6	Hegemonic
2015	47	No	No	94.9	100	Hegemonic
2021	53	In some regions	No	90.2	96.8	Hegemonic

Source: Computed based on NEBE (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2021).

Notes: (e) = the incumbent’s vote share is estimated from different sources as there is no official data

Table 1. The 2021 federal and regional election results.

Region	Voter turnout in %	No. of territorial group	No. of Federal seats	No. of Regional seats	Seats won by the opposition		Winner oppositions
					Federal	Parties	Regional	Parties
Harari	82	1	2	36	0	–	0
SNNP	78	55	102	286	7	EZEMA (4) GPDO (2) KPDP (1)	19	EZEMA (10) GPDO (6) KPDP (3)
Somali	92	1	23	263	0	–	1*	Independent (1)
Afar	97	2	6	69	0	–	3	APDO (3)
Amhara	94	6	119	254	5	NAMA (5)	11	NAMA (11)
B-G	55	5	3	28	0	–	0	–
Gambella	89	4	3	149	0	–	6	GPLM (6)
Oromia	96	1	170	513	3*	Idependent (3)	0	–
Sidama	88.9	1	19	190	0	–	0	–
Total	87.8	76	447	1788	15	15	40	40

Source: NEBE (2021).

Note: This data does not include the Tigray region and the two chartered cities of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. The number of federal and regional seats indicates where elections were conducted. Elections for 178 regional and 32 federal seats were not conducted due to security issues. B-G = Benishangul-Gumuz; NAMA = Amhara National Movement; GPLM = Gambella Peoples’ Liberation Movement; EZEMA = Citizens for Social Justice; GPDO = Gedio People Democratic Organization; KPDP = Kucha People Democratic Party and APDO = Argoba People Democratic Organisation.

Figure 1. Number of contested parties 2015 VS 2021.

Source: Supplemental Data B. Note: There was no Sidama region in the 2015 elections.

Figure 2. Incumbent vote share 2015 VS 2021.

Source: Supplemental Data B.

Table 3. Regional elections typology.

Region	Were the elections competitive	Were the elections free and fair	Incumbents vote share	Regional election		Federal election		Election typology
				Contested R seats (%)	No. of contested parties	Contested Federal seats (%)	No. of contested parties
Oromia	No	No	98.5	22.8	8	38.2	8	Hegemonic
Amhara	Yes	No	68.5	100	12	100	12	Competitive
SNNP	Yes	No	82	99.5	17	91.7	16	Competitive
Somali	No	No	98	24.7	2	30.4	2	Hegemonic
Afar	Yes	No	97.8	100	8	100	7	Hegemonic
B-G	No	No	87.3	100	6	100	6	Hegemonic
Harari	No	No	97.2	100	7	100	7	Hegemonic
Gambella	Yes	No	96.9	100	5	100	4	Hegemonic
Sidama	No	No	85.9	100	11	100	11	Hegemonic

Source: Calculated based on NEBE (2021) data.

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