Mind on the battlefield: what can cognitive science add to the military lessons-learned process?

Figures & data

Table 1. Main cognitive factors relevant to tactical decision-making.

Cognitive factors	Definition in the Military Context
lmaginability bias	The tendency to evaluate the risks of future states of affairs (e.g.military operations) according to the ease with which these risks are imagined.
Availability bias	The tendency to base decisions on available intelligence or previous experience in the battlefield even if not compatible with the actual states of affairs.
Underestimation of outgroup bias	The tendency to underestimate the enemy (e.g.attribution of limited firepower or poor military capability).
Overconfidence bias (ingroup bias)	The tendency to be overconfident in group military capabilities.
Overconfidence bias (general)	The tendency to overestimate the ability to predict and control future outcomes (e.g. of battle, operations).
Higher-level prioritization bias	The tendency to prioritize intelligence according to the military rank of the informant rather than accessible, reliable, up-to-date data.
Optimism bias	The tendency to expect positive future states of affairs (e.g.victory in battle) despite the low probability based on given reliable intelligence.
Negative rejection bias	The tendency to avoid generating negative future states of affairs (e.g.total defeat).
Decision avoidance behavior	The tendency to avoid making a choice by postponing it or by continuing in the current course of action (e.g. operational plan) without change.
Prioritizing immediate action (delay discounting)	A behavioral bias toward immediate military action, overcoming the priority for potential better but later consequences.
Vulnerability to metacognitive experiences	Cognitive difficulty involved in changing perspective, reexamination of intelligence or considering alternative operational plans.
Over-emphasis on accountability	The tendency to shift from risk-aversion to risk-preference due to over-emphas is on accountability.

Data availability statement

The supporting data for the findings of this study is available on request from the corresponding author, Dalit Milshtein.