Rent growth near rail stations after the Great Recession

Figures & data

Figure 1. Rents in TOD and TADs compared to the National Average, 2012–2016. Source: TOD Index.

Table 1. List of variables.

RentChange (dependent variable)	Percentage of rent change in a census tract from Jan 2012 to July 2016 reported from Zillow
Density^a	Gross housing density (HU/acre) on unprotected land of a census tract
LandUse	Jobs_Pop: Standard calculation based on population and total employment: Deviation of CBG ratio of jobs/pop from the regional average ratio of jobs/pop of a census tract
Design^a	Walkability of the Census tract: Network density in terms of facility miles of pedestrian-oriented links per square mile
Income^b	Mean income per household of a census tract in 2010
PerBlack^b	Percentage of the Black population in a census tract
PerWhite^b	Percentage of the White population in a census tract
CBD^c	Distance from the transit station to CBD (Euclidean distance)
WalkScore	Walk Score at the transit station
Miles^c	Distance from census tract to the transit station (Euclidean distance)
Region_dummy^d	Region coding (dummy variable)

^aData source: Authors compilation from SLD data. Data collected for this study is based on 2010 census data. ^bData source: Geolytics neighborhood change database. ^cData source: Author’s compilation. ^dData source: National TOD database.

Table 2. OLS rent change model estimates.

Variable	Estimate	Std. error	Statistic	p-Value
(Intercept)	2.92	0.16	17.75	0.00
ln_Income	0.00	0.01	−0.30	0.76
ln_Density	0.05	0.01	6.82	0.00
ln_PerBlack	−0.06	0.00	−12.83	0.00
ln_PerWhite	0.01	0.01	2.02	0.04
ln_DisCBD	−0.08	0.01	−14.93	0.00
ln_Walkscore	0.06	0.01	5.19	0.00
ln_Miles	−0.05	0.01	−9.48	0.00
ln_Design	0.16	0.02	9.63	0.00
ln_LandUse	−0.04	0.01	−6.75	0.00
Norfolk	−2.21	0.05	−43.09	0.00
Albuquerque	−1.97	0.06	−31.01	0.00
Memphis	−1.84	0.09	−20.10	0.00
St Louis	−1.56	0.05	−34.74	0.00
Little Rock	−1.33	0.09	−14.85	0.00
Washington DC	−1.27	0.03	−42.87	0.00
Las Vegas	−1.18	0.04	−27.02	0.00
Baltimore	−1.18	0.04	−33.41	0.00
Philadelphia	−1.05	0.03	−38.49	0.00
Kansas City	−1.04	0.05	−20.12	0.00
Chicago	−0.86	0.03	−33.52	0.00
Cleveland	−0.85	0.04	−23.11	0.00
Minneapolis St Paul	−0.70	0.04	−18.69	0.00
Eugene	−0.67	0.08	−8.05	0.00
New Orleans	−0.61	0.05	−13.56	0.00
Buffalo	−0.60	0.05	−11.48	0.00
Tampa	−0.54	0.07	−8.09	0.00
Salt Lake City	−0.51	0.04	−12.96	0.00
New York	−0.43	0.03	−16.64	0.00
Atlanta	−0.42	0.04	−10.33	0.00
Sacramento	−0.37	0.04	−10.23	0.00
Pittsburgh	−0.37	0.04	−9.03	0.00
Los Angeles	−0.26	0.03	−10.28	0.00
San Diego	−0.24	0.03	−7.16	0.00
Phoenix	−0.22	0.04	−5.47	0.00
Miami	−0.21	0.03	−6.81	0.00
Boston	−0.19	0.03	−6.44	0.00
Charlotte	−0.17	0.06	−2.84	0.00
Houston	−0.06	0.05	−1.12	0.26
Austin	0.02	0.05	0.41	0.68
Seattle	0.07	0.04	1.96	0.05
Portland	0.15	0.04	3.91	0.00
Nashville	0.21	0.08	2.80	0.01
Denver	0.24	0.04	5.70	0.00
San Francisco	0.25	0.03	8.16	0.00

Residual standard error: 0.4509 on 12,749 degrees of freedom. Multiple R-squared: 0.5698, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5683. F-statistic: 383.7 on 44 and 12,749 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16. LM Statistic: 49.56. LM-Test p-value: 1.70 × 10⁻⁹. F-Statistic: 9.98. F-Test p-value: 1.58 × 10⁻⁹. Moran’s I: 0.445. p-value: 0.001. Koenker–Bassett/Breusch–Paga Test for Heteroskedasticity. Test statistic: 656.361. p-value: 5.105079089422102e-121.

Table 3. HSAR rent change model estimated mean values of regression coefficients.

	Mean	SD	5%	95%
(Intercept)	2.39****	0.17	2.06	2.72
ln_Income	0.01	0.01	−0.01	0.04
ln_Density	0.03****	0.01	0.02	0.05
ln_PerBlack	−0.05****	0.00	−0.06	−0.05
ln_PerWhite	0.01^.	0.01	0.00	0.02
ln_DisCBD	−0.07****	0.01	−0.08	−0.06
ln_Walkscore	0.04**	0.01	0.02	0.06
ln_Miles	−0.04****	0.01	−0.05	−0.03
ln_Design	0.02**	0.02	−0.05	0.02
ln_Diversity	−0.05****	0.01	−0.06	−0.04
ρ	0.19****	0.01	0.18	0.21
λ	0.24*	0.11	0.02	0.46
σu 2	0.29***	0.07	0.14	0.43
σe 2	0.18****	0.00	0.18	0.19
DIC	50,803.44
Pseudo R2	0.59

Signif. codes: 0 “****,” 0.001 “***,” 0.01 “**,” 0.05 “*,” 0.1 “ .”

Table 4. Impact of a covariates effect on percentage of rent change.

	Direct	Indirect	Total
(Intercept)	2.41	0.52	2.93
ln_Income	0.01	0.00	0.01
ln_Density	0.03	0.01	0.04
ln_PerBlack	−0.05	−0.01	−0.07
ln_PerWhite	0.01	0.00	0.01
ln_DisCBD	−0.07	−0.02	−0.09
ln_Walkscore	0.04	0.01	0.05
ln_Miles	−0.04	−0.01	−0.05
ln_Design	0.02	0.00	0.02
ln_LandUse	−0.05	−0.01	−0.06

Table 5. Comparing OLS and HSAR rent change model estimates.

	OLS model	HSAR model
Variable	Coefficient (std. error)	Mean (SD)
(Intercept)	2.92 (0.16)****	2.39 (0.17)****
ln_Income	0.00 (0.01)	0.01 (0.01)
ln_Density	0.05 (0.01)****	0.03 (0.01)****
ln_PerBlack	−0.06 (0.00)****	−0.05 (0.00)****
ln_PerWhite	0.01 (0.01)*	0.01 (0.01)
ln_DisCBD	−0.08 (0.01)****	−0.07 (0.01)****
ln_Walkscore	0.06 (0.01)****	0.04 (0.01)**
ln_Miles	−0.05 (0.01)****	−0.04 (0.01)****
ln_Design	0.16 (0.02)****	0.02 (0.02)**
ln_LandUse (ln_Diversity in HSAR)	−0.04 (0.01)****	−0.05 (0.01)****
ρ	–	0.19 (0.01)****
λ	–	0.24 (0.11)*
σu^2	–	0.29 (0.07)***
σe^2	–	0.18 (0.00)****
City effects (e.g., Albuquerque, Austin)	Yes (results not shown here)	No (not included in model)
Adjusted R-squared	0.5683	–
Pseudo R^2	–	0.59
Residual standard error	0.4509	–
F-statistic (OLS)/DIC (HSAR)	383.7/50803.44	–

Table 6. Random effect of regions of HSAR model.

Region	Region effect
Nashville	0.661959
San Francisco	0.612931
Denver	0.551794
Portland	0.514006
Seattle	0.461787
Dallas	0.369114
Austin	0.363569
Houston	0.312603
Boston	0.277612
Charlotte	0.23756
Miami	0.217489
Phoenix	0.182165
San Diego	0.177906
Los Angeles	0.151533
Pittsburgh	0.101283
New York	0.071135
Sacramento	0.056133
Atlanta	0.012525
Tampa	−0.03238
Salt Lake City	−0.0474
New Orleans	−0.09733
Buffalo	−0.12734
Eugene	−0.16312
Minneapolis St Paul	−0.18566
Chicago	−0.30216
Cleveland	−0.3393
Philadelphia	−0.44946
Kansas City	−0.46763
Baltimore	−0.56974
Las Vegas	−0.60845
Washington DC	−0.67514
Little Rock	−0.71308
St Louis	−0.88206
Albuquerque	−1.18669
Norfolk	−1.41703
Memphis	−1.50206

Table 7. Summary of GWR rent change model estimates.

Variable	Min.	1st Quartile	Median	3rd Quartile	Max.
Intercept	−19.78	0.85	3.73	6.13	22.26
ln_Income	−1.15	−0.24	−0.04	0.12	1.47
ln_Density	−0.57	−0.06	0.01	0.08	0.85
ln_PerBlack	−1.02	−0.08	−0.02	0.03	0.65
ln_PerWhite	−2.14	−0.06	0.03	0.13	1.80
ln_DisCBD	−2.59	−0.29	−0.07	0.04	2.42
ln_Walkscore	−2.71	−0.12	0.01	0.15	4.54
ln_Miles	−0.44	−0.05	−0.01	0.03	0.46
ln_Design	−1.45	−0.08	0.09	0.28	1.74
ln_LandUse	−0.77	−0.06	−0.01	0.04	0.55

Model calibration information: Kernel function: bisquare. Adaptive bandwidth: 122 (number of nearest neneighbors. Regression points: the same locations as observations are used. Distance metric: A distance matrix is specified for this model calibration. Diagnostic information: Number of data points: 12,794. Effective number of parameters (2trace(S) – trace (S’S)): 2730.969. Effective degrees of freedom (n-2trace(S) + trace (’'S)): 10063.03. AICc(GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002, p. 61, eq 2.33): 8654.16. AIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 96, eq. 4.22): 5595.877. Residual sum of squares: 979.1565. R-square value: 0.8374994. Adjusted R-square value: 0.7933946.

Table 8. Percent of census tracts where built environment variables had significant influence on rent change.

Region	Sig. Den^a	Min. estimate of Den	Max. estimate of Den	Sig. LandUse^b	Min. estimate of LandUse	Max. estimate LandUse	Sig. design^c	Min. estimate design	Max. estimate design
Albuquerque	0	−0.18	−0.17	0	−0.02	0.00	100	1.04	1.09
Atlanta	61	−0.27	0.05	6	−0.05	0.15	62	−0.41	0.75
Austin	0	−0.01	−0.01	0	0.01	0.01	0	0.09	0.10
Baltimore	45	−0.41	0.42	15	−0.38	0.18	58	−0.67	0.78
Boston	12	−0.22	0.36	41	−0.22	0.18	14	−0.67	0.71
Buffalo	100	0.15	0.15	0	−0.11	−0.11	100	−0.38	−0.38
Charlotte	0	0.11	0.11	0	0.12	0.12	100	0.38	0.38
Chicago	38	−0.57	0.50	28	−0.30	0.55	36	−1.24	0.93
Cleveland	68	−0.24	0.48	43	−0.25	0.10	63	−1.45	0.49
Dallas	8	−0.18	0.11	11	−0.20	0.02	2	−0.37	0.29
Denver	0	−0.05	0.03	0	−0.09	0.03	14	−0.14	0.49
Eugene	0	−0.13	−0.12	0	−0.06	−0.06	0	0.01	0.01
Houston	0	−0.10	−0.10	0	−0.11	−0.11	0	0.03	0.03
Kansas City	100	−0.25	−0.25	100	−0.09	−0.09	100	0.66	0.66
Las Vegas	0	−0.09	0.04	8	−0.09	0.02	2	−0.03	0.28
Little Rock	0	−0.10	−0.08	100	−0.17	−0.16	100	0.27	0.27
Los Angeles	0	−0.18	0.31	8	−0.22	0.17	12	−0.54	0.75
Memphis	0	0.08	0.12	0	−0.02	0.00	100	0.28	0.29
Miami	19	−0.14	0.22	16	−0.09	0.14	23	−0.47	0.63
Minneapolis St Paul	29	−0.01	0.14	7	−0.05	0.15	8	−0.18	0.38
Nashville	0	−0.12	−0.01	0	0.10	0.15	74	0.17	0.55
New Orleans	59	0.05	0.36	35	−0.14	0.08	91	0.33	1.53
New York	18	−0.54	0.60	17	−0.45	0.45	16	−1.05	1.74
Norfolk	100	0.18	0.19	100	0.20	0.21	100	1.04	1.09
Philadelphia	49	−0.50	0.54	34	−0.77	0.52	43	−1.34	1.68
Phoenix	0	−0.05	0.12	10	−0.01	0.18	10	0.09	0.43
Pittsburgh	49	−0.23	0.00	23	−0.18	0.05	36	0.06	0.55
Portland	0	−0.10	0.05	0	−0.08	0.05	0	−0.03	0.28
Sacramento	0	−0.06	0.17	7	−0.13	0.09	37	−0.55	0.29
Salt Lake City	0	−0.06	0.17	0	−0.04	0.08	12	−0.24	0.44
San Diego	25	−0.09	0.21	11	−0.14	0.15	19	−0.07	0.56
San Francisco	0	−0.06	0.15	0	−0.06	0.05	1	−0.53	0.35
Seattle	0	−0.10	0.14	0	−0.08	0.09	34	−0.02	0.50
St Louis	64	−0.24	0.16	94	0.07	0.43	89	0.14	1.03
Tampa	0	−0.01	−0.01	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.31	0.31
Washington DC	51	−0.53	0.85	32	−0.59	0.38	73	−1.02	1.69

^aThe proportion of census tracts in which density has a significant influence on rent change. bThe proportion of census tracts in which diversity has significant influence on rent change. ^cThe proportion of census tracts in which the design has significant influence on rent change.

Table 9. Impact of key factors on rent change (2012–2016).

Variable	Estimate	Interpretation
Intercept	2.92	Average percent change in rent from 2012 to 2016 when all independent variables are equal to zero
ln_Income	0.00	No significant effect on the percent change in rent from 2012 to 2016
ln_Density	0.05	1% increase in population density is associated with 0.05% increase in rent change
ln_PerBlack	−0.06	1% increase in the percentage of Black residents is associated with 0.06% decrease in rent change
ln_PerWhite	0.01	1% increase in the percentage of White residents is associated with 0.01% increase in rent change
ln_DisCBD	−0.08	1% increase in the log distance to CBD is associated with 0.08% decrease in rent change
ln_Walkscore	0.06	1% increase in Walk Score at the station is associated with 0.06% increase in rent change
ln_Miles	−0.05	1% increase in the log of miles (distance to the station) is associated with 0.05% decrease in rent change
ln_Design	0.16	1% increase in the log of design (tract walkability) is associated with 0.16% increase in rent change
ln_LandUse	−0.04	1% increase in the log of land use is associated with 0.04% decrease in rent change

Table

S. no.	Region	Tracts	Tracts adopted in the study	Train_Tracts	Test_Tracts
1	Albuquerque	141	87	58	29
2	Atlanta	312	259	180	79
3	Austin	182	158	110	48
4	Baltimore	472	432	274	158
5	Boston	1207	919	635	284
6	Buffalo	137	133	92	41
7	Charlotte	113	98	72	26
8	Chicago	2280	1827	1285	542
9	Cleveland	364	337	234	103
10	Dallas	727	640	444	196
11	Denver	331	242	167	75
12	Detroit	120
13	Eugene	52	40	32	8
14	Harrisburg	106
15	Houston	165	134	91	43
16	Jacksonville	59
17	Kansas City	161	141	99	42
18	Las Vegas	278	201	144	57
19	Little Rock	38	34	28	6
20	Los Angeles	2972	2660	1857	803
21	Memphis	79	49	35	14
22	Miami	806	608	443	165
23	Minneapolis St Paul	319	310	224	86
24	Nashville	98	54	39	15
25	New Orleans	234	209	138	71
26	New York	4820	3471	2423	1048
27	Norfolk	148	133	99	34
28	Philadelphia	1297	1126	786	340
29	Phoenix	273	259	186	73
30	Pittsburgh	304	257	179	78
31	Portland	427	272	190	82
32	Sacramento	336	323	236	87
33	Salt Lake City	293	281	191	90
34	San Diego	520	480	333	147
35	San Francisco	1372	677	467	210
36	Seattle	500	366	260	106
37	St Louis	262	192	132	60
38	Tampa	80	70	55	15
39	Washington DC	1006	799	576	223
Total		23391	18278	12794	5484

Table

Region	Sig. income	Min. Estimate income	Max. estimate income	Sig. PerBlack	Min. Estimate PerBlack	Max. Estimate PerBlack	Sig. PerWhite	Min. Estimate PerWhite	Max. Estimate PerWhite	Sig. DisCBD	Min. Estimate DisCBD	Max. Estimate DisCBD	Sig. Walkscore	Min. Estimate Walkscore	Max. Estimate Walkscore	Sig. miles	Min. estimate miles	Max. estimate miles
Albuquerque	0	0.05	0.07	100	0.52	0.54	0	0.21	0.29	100	0.51	0.52	0	0.05	0.05	100	0.15	0.16
Atlanta	61	0.05	0.34	64	−0.43	0.19	100	0.10	0.52	82	−0.43	−0.04	51	−0.12	0.53	0	−0.07	0.05
Austin	100	−0.29	−0.29	0	0.08	0.08	0	0.10	0.10	0	−0.02	−0.02	0	0.12	0.12	0	−0.02	−0.02
Baltimore	43	−0.65	0.58	40	−0.67	0.27	43	−1.25	0.19	20	−0.62	0.79	26	−0.71	0.38	21	−0.17	0.45
Boston	48	−0.69	0.10	28	−0.23	0.21	11	−0.55	0.59	24	−0.98	0.45	9	−0.87	0.77	21	−0.13	0.20
Buffalo	100	−0.29	−0.29	0	−0.06	−0.06	0	0.05	0.05	0	−0.05	−0.05	0	0.05	0.05	100	−0.18	−0.18
Charlotte	0	−0.09	−0.09	0	−0.07	−0.06	100	0.12	0.12	0	0.00	0.00	0	−0.03	−0.03	0	0.06	0.06
Chicago	67	−0.62	1.02	50	−0.58	0.17	50	−1.06	1.24	64	−2.03	1.69	34	−2.71	1.64	20	−0.12	0.28
Cleveland	44	−0.71	0.20	88	−0.43	0.08	44	−0.18	0.13	99	−1.78	−0.06	54	−0.90	0.32	100	−0.43	−0.07
Dallas	65	−0.41	−0.01	19	−0.12	0.00	14	−0.39	0.32	45	−0.50	0.00	18	−0.20	0.28	10	−0.16	0.06
Denver	67	−0.45	−0.12	0	−0.03	0.11	3	−0.13	1.02	0	−0.20	0.03	0	−0.18	0.05	0	−0.06	0.04
Eugene	0	−0.25	−0.24	0	0.24	0.25	0	−2.14	−2.08	100	0.22	0.22	0	0.18	0.18	0	0.05	0.06
Houston	0	0.03	0.03	100	−0.10	−0.09	0	−0.07	−0.07	0	−0.04	−0.04	0	0.14	0.14	0	−0.01	−0.01
Kansas City	0	0.06	0.07	0	−0.07	−0.07	100	0.30	0.30	100	0.12	0.13	100	−0.43	−0.43	100	0.21	0.21
Las Vegas	36	−0.29	−0.10	3	−0.03	0.12	52	−0.16	0.40	70	−0.21	−0.03	19	−0.23	0.00	0	−0.07	0.06
Little Rock	100	−0.26	−0.24	100	−0.26	−0.25	100	0.17	0.18	100	−0.20	−0.17	100	4.40	4.54	100	−0.27	−0.27
Los Angeles	37	−0.70	0.25	3	−0.19	0.19	8	−0.71	0.58	19	−2.32	1.06	8	−1.03	0.89	6	−0.14	0.30
Memphis	100	−0.41	−0.38	100	−0.44	−0.41	100	0.18	0.18	100	0.19	0.21	17	0.08	0.46	100	−0.17	−0.16
Miami	28	−0.07	0.44	8	−0.14	0.08	8	−0.31	0.17	48	−0.68	2.01	16	−0.69	0.73	4	−0.12	0.13
Minneapolis St Paul	54	−0.27	0.38	17	−0.06	0.12	3	−0.07	0.35	11	−0.15	0.07	33	−0.23	0.56	25	−0.18	0.03
Nashville	100	−0.61	−0.53	0	0.01	0.05	59	0.25	0.50	0	0.01	0.07	0	0.07	0.15	46	0.09	0.16
New Orleans	42	0.01	0.44	100	−0.16	−0.07	45	−0.17	−0.02	46	−0.29	−0.01	51	−0.77	0.72	16	−0.13	0.03
New York	27	−0.89	1.29	27	−0.68	0.37	21	−1.30	0.64	37	−2.59	2.42	22	−1.48	3.07	20	−0.44	0.35
Norfolk	100	−0.90	−0.87	100	−0.15	−0.14	0	−0.01	0.00	100	0.24	0.26	100	−0.56	−0.54	0	0.03	0.04
Philadelphia	52	−1.01	1.08	46	−0.75	0.34	55	−0.57	1.80	56	−1.26	0.70	44	−1.00	1.39	44	−0.31	0.22
Phoenix	6	−0.29	0.12	0	−0.06	0.08	0	−0.19	0.38	33	−0.13	0.00	61	−0.75	−0.09	0	−0.07	0.06
Pittsburgh	87	−0.34	−0.16	1	−0.04	0.09	45	0.00	0.36	58	−0.19	0.01	100	0.26	0.74	3	−0.09	0.02
Portland	0	−0.12	0.16	5	0.02	0.14	0	−0.38	0.63	0	−0.10	0.06	20	−0.29	0.26	0	0.00	0.07
Sacramento	44	−0.44	0.20	0	−0.09	0.13	0	−0.18	0.26	27	−0.30	0.08	0	−0.06	0.17	30	−0.15	0.05
Salt Lake City	21	0.07	0.39	0	−0.17	0.08	0	−0.55	0.24	75	−0.18	−0.05	0	−0.02	0.12	0	−0.05	0.03
San Diego	38	−0.54	0.05	13	−0.16	0.06	8	−0.23	0.43	6	−0.27	0.11	7	−0.30	0.37	1	−0.11	0.06
San Francisco	13	−0.33	0.31	6	−0.16	0.07	0	−0.13	0.19	23	−0.79	0.23	12	−0.40	0.30	0	−0.08	0.03
Seattle	5	−0.06	0.39	10	−0.22	0.04	7	−0.50	0.15	57	−0.83	0.04	20	−0.28	0.12	7	−0.02	0.12
St Louis	72	−0.23	0.63	100	−0.44	−0.09	71	−0.06	0.29	93	−0.51	0.37	100	0.66	0.99	23	−0.21	0.12
Tampa	0	0.08	0.08	0	−0.02	−0.02	0	0.09	0.09	0	0.07	0.07	0	0.86	0.86	0	0.05	0.05
Washington DC	59	−1.15	1.47	59	−1.02	0.65	53	−1.23	0.69	72	−0.88	0.70	51	−0.97	1.29	31	−0.17	0.46