Impact of technical progress and fiscal support to agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics results.

Variable Name	Symbol	Observation	Mean	S.D	Min	Max
Total ACEs	nyco2	570	265.696	193.332	10.874	871.942
The logarithm of total ACEs	lnnyco2	570	5.214	1.009	2.386	6.771
agricultural technological progress	atech	570	1.087	0.143	0.346	3.9
Financial expenditure for supporting agriculture	fesa	570	8.969	4.122	1.181	18.97
urbanization rate	urban	570	0.511	0.15	0.139	0.942
farmland management scale	fms	570	0.651	0.396	0.05	5.886
Structure of crops	pgc	570	0.649	0.132	0.328	1.143
Share of secondary sector	secondindu	570	42.95	8.064	15.99	61.96
Share of tertiary sector	thirdindu	570	45.22	8.986	30.83	83.71
Urban-rural income gap	incomegap	570	2.874	0.573	1.85	5.12
Consumption levels of rural residents	consumrur	570	6.970	5.207	1.054	26.755

Table 2. Results of the spatial correlation test.

Year	I	E(I)	sd(I)	z	Year	I	E(I)	sd(I)	z
2000	0.323* **	−0.034	0.108	3.317	2010	0.281***	−0.034	0.108	2.913
2001	0.329***	−0.034	0.108	3.376	2011	0.270***	−0.034	0.108	2.808
2002	0.331***	−0.034	0.107	3.418	2012	0.259***	−0.034	0.109	2.697
2003	0.326***	−0.034	0.107	3.366	2013	0.251***	−0.034	0.109	2.628
2004	0.304***	−0.034	0.108	3.141	2014	0.226***	−0.034	0.109	2.387
2005	0.306***	−0.034	0.108	3.163	2015	0.213**	−0.034	0.109	2.274
2006	0.307***	−0.034	0.107	3.179	2016	0.203**	−0.034	0.109	2.185
2007	0.296***	−0.034	0.108	3.072	2017	0.199**	−0.034	0.109	2.144
2008	0.293***	−0.034	0.108	3.033	2018	0.196**	−0.034	0.109	2.123
2009	0.287***	−0.034	0.108	2.971	2019	0.189**	−0.034	0.109	2.056

Note.

***, **, *indicate significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels respectively.

Table 3. Baseline regression results.

	SDM			SAR
	Direct	Indirect	Total	Direct	Indirect	Total
atech	−0.223***	−0.349**	−0.572***	−0.221***	−0.237***	−0.459***
	(−4.123)	(−2.150)	(−2.972)	(−3.928)	(−3.668)	(−3.922)
pgc	−0.270***	−0.790**	−1.060***	−0.195**	−0.209*	−0.404**
	(−2.783)	(−2.314)	(−2.804)	(−2.029)	(−1.947)	(−2.010)
urban	−0.179**	−1.188***	−1.368***	−0.115*	−0.123	−0.238*
	(−2.468)	(−3.783)	(−3.752)	(−1.697)	(−1.639)	(−1.682)
fms	0.158***	0.268***	0.427***	0.153***	0.164***	0.316***
	(4.953)	(2.826)	(3.780)	(4.603)	(4.251)	(4.624)
secondindu	0.008***	−0.022**	−0.014	0.013***	0.014***	0.027***
	(3.025)	(−2.414)	(−1.251)	(5.315)	(3.802)	(4.571)
thirdindu	0.008**	−0.025**	−0.017	0.013***	0.014***	0.027***
	(2.575)	(−2.371)	(−1.325)	(4.609)	(3.467)	(4.062)
incomegap	−0.135***	0.114	−0.021	−0.162***	−0.174***	−0.336***
	(−4.973)	(1.268)	(−0.210)	(−6.252)	(−4.914)	(−5.859)
consumrur	−0.017***	−0.075***	−0.092***	−0.020***	−0.022***	−0.042***
	(−6.035)	(−7.500)	(−8.503)	(−7.083)	(−5.932)	(−7.133)
rho	0.505***	0.505***	0.505***	0.559***	0.559***	0.559***
	(11.820)	(11.820)	(11.820)	(14.546)	(14.546)	(14.546)
Fixed individual	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fixed time	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs	570	570	570	570	570	570
wald_sptial_lag	73.23***	73.23***	73.23***	73.23***	73.23***	73.23***
wald_sptial_error	105.18***	105.18***	105.18***	105.18***	105.18***	105.18***
LR_sptial_lag	70.86***	70.86***	70.86***	70.86***	70.86***	70.86***
LR_sptial_ error	104.63***	104.63***	104.63***	104.63***	104.63***	104.63***
Hausman test	30.85***	30.85***	30.85***	30.85***	30.85***	30.85***

Note: Figures in brackets are corresponding t-values.

***, **, *indicate significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels respectively.

Table 4. Robustness test results.

	Tailoring test			Reduce the sample size			Replace weight matrix
	Direct	Indirect	Total	Direct	Indirect	Total	Direct	Indirect	Total
atech	−0.224***	−0.348**	−0.572***	−0.174***	−0.402***	−0.576***	−0.260***	−0.560***	−0.820***
	(−4.116)	(−2.155)	(−2.986)	(−3.320)	(−2.595)	(−3.133)	(−4.465)	(−2.699)	(−3.599)
pgc	−0.277***	−0.824**	−1.101***	−0.227**	−0.670**	−0.897**	−0.184*	0.056	−0.128
	(−2.838)	(−2.421)	(−2.925)	(−2.343)	(−2.041)	(−2.479)	(−1.646)	(0.158)	(−0.341)
urban	−0.176**	−1.155***	−1.331***	−0.181**	−1.322***	−1.504***	−0.232***	−1.268***	−1.500***
	(−2.414)	(−3.707)	(−3.678)	(−2.400)	(−4.052)	(−3.968)	(−3.116)	(−4.268)	(−4.400)
fms	0.159***	0.269***	0.428***	0.118***	0.275***	0.393***	0.181***	0.345***	0.526***
	(4.956)	(2.846)	(3.812)	(3.767)	(3.003)	(3.598)	(5.213)	(2.786)	(3.833)
secondindu	0.008***	−0.021**	−0.013	0.004	−0.028***	−0.024*	0.007***	−0.023***	−0.015
	(3.046)	(−2.339)	(−1.177)	(1.231)	(−2.779)	(−1.958)	(3.000)	(−2.636)	(−1.547)
thirdindu	0.008***	−0.023**	−0.015	0.003	−0.027**	−0.024*	0.006*	−0.032***	−0.027**
	(2.683)	(−2.236)	(−1.183)	(0.976)	(−2.345)	(−1.682)	(1.880)	(−2.918)	(−2.117)
incomegap	−0.133***	0.123	−0.010	−0.142***	0.098	−0.043	−0.162***	−0.063	−0.225**
	(−4.869)	(1.380)	(−0.096)	(−5.174)	(1.101)	(−0.425)	(−5.342)	(−0.665)	(−2.194)
consumrur	−0.017***	−0.074***	−0.091***	−0.016***	−0.077***	−0.093***	−0.021***	−0.059***	−0.080***
	(−6.050)	(−7.452)	(−8.489)	(−5.677)	(−7.923)	(−8.782)	(−6.890)	(−5.541)	(−7.341)
rho	0.498***	0.498***	0.498***	0.498***	0.498***	0.498***	0.299***	0.299***	0.299***
	(11.565)	(11.565)	(11.565)	(11.237)	(11.237)	(11.237)	(4.200)	(4.200)	(4.200)
Fixed individual	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fixed time	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs	570	570	570	510	510	510	570	570	570

Note: Figures in brackets are corresponding t-values.

***, **, * indicate significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels respectively.

Table 5. Regional heterogeneity.

	West of Hu Huanyong Line	East of Hu Huanyong Line	Western Regions	Non-Western Regions	Major grain producing areas	Non-food producing areas
Direct	−0.268***	−0.203***	−0.210***	−0.233***	−0.320***	−0.105
	(−2.876)	(−3.947)	(−2.582)	(−4.215)	(−3.656)	(−1.185)
Indirect	0.041	−0.430***	0.004	−0.347***	−0.936***	−0.126
	(0.380)	(−3.699)	(0.028)	(−3.118)	(−4.252)	(−0.780)
Total	−0.227***	−0.634***	−0.206	−0.580***	−1.256***	−0.232
	(−3.156)	(−4.482)	(−1.225)	(−4.177)	(−4.530)	(−1.073)
rho	−1.187***	0.357***	−0.259**	0.325***	0.397***	0.302***
	(−13.474)	(6.732)	(−2.350)	(5.660)	(5.251)	(6.144)
Control variables	Control	Control	Control	Control	Control	Control
Fixed individual	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fixed time	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs	95	475	209	361	247	323

Note: Figures in brackets are corresponding t-values.

***, **, *indicate significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels respectively.

Table 6. The regulatory effects test results.

	Direct		Indirect		Total
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
atech	−0.223***	−0.094*	−0.349**	−0.228	−0.572***	−0.323*
	(−4.123)	(−1.720)	(−2.150)	(−1.624)	(−2.972)	(−1.858)
pgc	−0.270***	−0.266***	−0.790**	−0.447	−1.060***	−0.712**
	(−2.783)	(−2.908)	(−2.314)	(−1.479)	(−2.804)	(−2.139)
urban	−0.179**	−0.190***	−1.188***	−1.120***	−1.368***	−1.310***
	(−2.468)	(−3.003)	(−3.783)	(−4.582)	(−3.752)	(−4.685)
fms	0.158***	0.304***	0.268***	−0.051	0.427***	0.252
	(4.953)	(7.291)	(2.826)	(−0.344)	(3.780)	(1.522)
secondindu	0.008***	0.013***	−0.022**	−0.008	−0.014	0.005
	(3.025)	(4.888)	(−2.414)	(−1.004)	(−1.251)	(0.444)
thirdindu	0.008**	0.014***	−0.025**	−0.007	−0.017	0.008
	(2.575)	(4.401)	(−2.371)	(−0.673)	(−1.325)	(0.621)
incomegap	−0.135***	−0.125***	0.114	0.064	−0.021	−0.062
	(−4.973)	(−5.213)	(1.268)	(0.807)	(−0.210)	(−0.698)
consumrur	−0.017***	−0.012***	−0.075***	−0.046***	−0.092***	−0.058***
	(−6.035)	(−3.920)	(−7.500)	(−5.283)	(−8.503)	(−5.975)
fesa		0.018***		0.031***		0.050***
		(6.692)		(4.129)		(5.975)
atechfesa		−0.151***		0.147		−0.004
		(−5.031)		(1.551)		(−0.040)
rho	0.505***	0.454***	0.505***	0.454***	0.505***	0.454***
	(11.820)	(9.869)	(11.820)	(9.869)	(11.820)	(9.869)
Fixed individual	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fixed time	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs	570	570	570	570	570	570

Note: Figures in brackets are corresponding t-values.

***, **, *indicate significant at 1%, 5%, 10% levels respectively.

Table

ACEs	Agricultural Carbon Emissions
ATP	Agricultural Technological Progress
SDM	Spatial Dubin Model
SAR	Spatial autoregressive model
HHYL	Hu Huanyong Line