Nudging not nagging: leveraging mentorship and patronage in Sino-Uzbek relations, 2017-2022

Figures & data

Table 1. Trade between Uzbekistan and its major trading partners, in USD millions.

Country	Export	Import	Overall	%
Russia	$2.798 billion	$5.540 billion	$8.34 billion	18.6
China	$2.385 billion	$5.792 billion	$8.18 billion	18.2
Kazakhstan	$1.270 billion	$2.928 billion	$4.19 billion	9.3
Turkey	$1.383 billion	$1.549 billion	$2.93 billion	6.5
South Korea	$45.6 million	$2.123 billion	$2.17 billion	4.8
Kyrgyzstan	$866 million	$254 million	$1.12 billion	2.5
Germany	$85 million	$856 million	$941 million	2.1
Turkmenistan	$184 million	$674 million	$858 million	1.9
Afghanistan	$664 million	$8.4 million	$673 million	1.5
India	$31.9 million	$594 million	$626 million	1.4

Source: National Committee for Statistics of Uzbekistan, 23 December 2022.

Table 2. Breakdown of public debt by sectors, Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan, 2022.

1. Budget support is $6.6 billion (as of 1 January 2022, it was $5.9 billion);

2. Electricity - $2.7 billion ($3.1 billion);

3. Energy (oil and gas) - $2.9 billion (2.2 billion);

4. Transportation and transport infrastructure - $2.4 billion ($2.6 billion);

5. Agriculture and Water Resources - $2.5 billion ($2.4 billion);

6. Housing and utilities - $2.2 billion ($2.1 billion);

7. The chemical industry is $1 billion ($1.2 billion);

8. Education and health care, $0.8 billion ($0.7 billion);

9. Telecommunications - $0.2 billion ($0.2 billion);

10. Other industries $0.94 billion ($1.3 billion).

Source: https://mf.uz/media/document_files/DB_3Q2022_.pdf.

Table 3. Breakdown of debt by institutions in 2022 Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan, 2022.

1. Asian Development Bank - $5.4 billion ($5.2 billion);

2. World Bank - $4.4 billion ($4.3 billion);

3. State Development Bank of China and other sources in the PRC - $2.1 billion (2.2 billion);

4. Eximbank of China - $1.9 billion ($2 billion);

5. Japan International Cooperation Agency - $1.7 billion ($2.1 billion);

6. International investors - $2.6 billion ($2.6 billion);

7. South Korea’s Economic Cooperation Development Fund and other sources in that country - $1 billion (1 billion);

8. Islamic Development Bank - $0.9 billion ($0.9 billion);

9. Japan Bank for International Cooperation and other sources in Japan - $0.4 billion (0.6 billion);

10. Other international financial institutions - $2.8 billion (2.7 billion).

Source: https://mf.uz/media/document_files/DB_3Q2022_.pdf.

Table 4. Breakdown of debt by currencies in 2022 (2021) Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan, 2022.

The U.S. Dollar	74.8% (71.9%)
Japanese Yen	8.2% (10.5%)
SDR (Special Drawing Rights)	7.7% (8.4%)
Euro	4.7% (4.6%)
Uzbek Soum	1.8% (1.8%)
Chinese Yuan	0.9% (1.3%)
South Korean Won	0.7% (0.8%)
Saudi Rial	0.6% (0.6%)
Kuwaiti Dinar	0.4% (0.4%)
UAE Dirham	0.03% (0.02%).

Source: https://mf.uz/media/document_files/DB_3Q2022_.pdf.

Figure 1. The structure of the initiation of cooperation for Uzbekistan.

Figure 2. The structure of communications in drafting road maps between China and Uzbekistan (2017–2022).

Figure 3. China-Uzbek road map–related project areas in 2017 (in billion USD).

Figure 4. Production facilities included in the roadmap in 2017 (million USD).

Table 5. Selected examples of the projects included into the roadmap of cooperation between China and Uzbekistan compiled in 2017.

Documents in the field of investment and trade
1.	Construction of small and medium hydropower plants	2.7 billion USD. Foreign partner - Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
2.	Loan agreement between Eximbank of China and JSCB “Uzpromstroybank”	on financing “Modernization of “Shargunkumir” JSC project for the amount of 89,8 mln. Foreign partner - Eximbank of China JSC Uzbekenergo, JSC Uzbekugol, JSCB Uzpromstroybank, Ministry of Finance
3.	Memorandum of Cooperation on joint production of modern biogas plants	to the amount of 10.0 million dollars. Foreign partner - Poly International NHC Uzbekneftegaz
4.	Organization of production of MDF panels	and paint products worth 15.0 million dollars (FDI − 15.0 million dollars). Foreign Partner - Zheng Boxuan
5.	Organization of production of facing bricks	in the amount of 1.0 million dollars (FDI − 1.0 million dollars).Foreign partner - Louyang 1m beng yumi Co Ltd.JSC Uzstroymaterialy
6.	Memorandum of Understanding on the “Construction of the plant for production of steel products	in the territory of FEZ “Angren” to the amount of 115.0 million USD. Foreign Partner - Jiangsu Hui Technology Development JSC Uzstroymaterialy
7.	Agreement on implementation of cement production	in Tashkent region worth $100.0 million.Foreign partner – Hubei Provinial Road & Bride JSC Uzstroymaterialy
8.	Production of glass products (II stage) and sandwich panels	to the amount of 83.3 million dollars. based on fiberglass in the FEZ “Jizzakh”
9.	“Organization of Glass Production,” “MDF and Particleboard Production”	on the territory of Free Economic Zone “Navoi” to the amount of 28.5 million US dollars. Foreign partner - Hebei New
10.	Agreement on cooperation in the implementation of the second phase of the project to create a textile complex	(production) in Karshi district of Kashkadarya region for $ 70.0 million. Foreign Partner - Jinsheng Group JSC Uzbekengilsanoat
11.	Agreement on in the implementation of the first phase of the project	to create a textile complex on the basis of JSC “Bobur” in the Andijan region Foreign Partner - Nanyang M&F Home Textile
12.	Organization of production of blended fabrics and wool fabrics	in Fergana region worth 2.0 million dollars (FDI − 2.0 million dollars) Foreign partner - Beijing GEOU Trade Co. LTD.
13.	Memorandum of Understanding for the “Thiourea based on ammonium rhodanide and sodium polysulfide and “Dry Cyanide Salts”	. at JSC “Navoiazot” in the amount of $50.0 million.Foreign partner - China CAMC Engineering Co. and HQC Shanghai JSC Uzkimyosanoat
14.	Organization of production of polymer label and packaging	products in the range of 10.1 million dollars (FDI − 7.1 million dollars) Foreign Partner - Xinjiang Houde Tianrun and Export Trading Co
15.	Memorandum for a $139.0 million appliance joint venture.	1.Creation of a working group and study by Haier of the possibility of creating a joint venture to produce household appliances. Foreign partner – Haier
16.	Memorandum of Understanding between the State Committee on Investments and the Ministry of Commerce of PCR to strengthen cooperation in the development of infrastructure ($ 1.2 billion).	a) Expansion of the Angren thermal power plant with the construction of a 130–150 MW power unit with heat extraction for high ash coal combustion;b) Construction of an electrified high-speed double-track circular railroad in the city of Tashkent;c) Modernization of pumping stations in the Republic of Uzbekistan.
17.	Memorandum of Understanding for Localization Program at UzXCMG JV to reach 60%l of localization level of by 2020.	1. Provision by the Chinese side of a list of technical and technological equipment for the organization of industrial assembly, localization.July 2017. Foreign partner - XCMG
In the sphere of financial and technical cooperation (5 documents) IN THE BANKING AND FINANCIAL FIELD (13 documents).
18.	An agreement on technical and economic cooperation in the amount of $50.7 million. Foreign partner - Government of the People’s Republic of ChinaGoskominvestitsy	1. According to the information of the State Investments Committee, in accordance with the instructions of the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan dated 27.08.2017 № 24/1–2130 and 09.09.2017 № 24/34–10 a letter with a list of 22 projects worth 233 million dollars was sent to the Chinese side.
19.	Agreement on financing promising investment projects of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the amount of $2.0 billion. Foreign partner - China State Development Bank　FRRU	1. Financing of the projects is being worked out: - “Acquisition of 4 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft and 1 A-320-200 aircraft” (in progress); - “Expansion of the production capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex” (in progress);- “Construction of the Djizak Refinery” (suspended).
20.	Agreement on co-financing of the project “Production of synthetic liquid fuel based on purified methane from the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex” for the total amount of $3.7 billion.	1.Approval of the terms of the loan with GBRC. May-July 2017. 2.3. conclusion of the loan agreement. august 2017. 3.Sampling of GBRC loan funds. as prerequisites are fulfilled Foreign partner - China State Development Bank　NHC Uzbekneftegaz
21.	A framework agreement to co-finance projects in oil&gas sector	Foreign partner - China State Development Bank NHC Uzbekneftegaz
22.	A loan agreement between New Silk Road Oil and Gas JV LLC, CNPC Corporation and Bank of China	to finance the Dengizkul gas condensate field development project (Hojisayat, Hoji-Davlat and Sharkiy Alat areas) for a total of $377.6 million. Foreign partner – CNPC NHC Uzbekneftegaz
23.	A $500.0 million cooperation agreement between Uznatsbank and the Silk Road Fund.	Foreign partner - Silk Road Foundation Uznatsbank,Goskominvestitsy
24.	Guarantee agreement between JSCB Uzpromstroybank and SBDK on co-financing projects in oil and gas sector for the total amount of 220,3 mln.	1. execution of surety agreements to secure the guarantees issued by JSCB Uzpromstroybank. July 2017. 2. Sending of application on the part of NHC “Uzbekneftegaz” for sampling of SBRK funds August 2017. Foreign partner - China State Development Bank
25.	Guarantee agreement between JSCB “Uzpromstroybank” and SBRK	on financing projects in oil and gas sector for the total amount of 220,3 mln.Foreign partner - China State Development Bank JSCB Uzpromstroybank
26.	A framework agreement to open a credit line	to finance small business and private enterprise projects of up to $100.0 million.Foreign partner - Eximbank of ChinaJSCB Asaka
27.	Loan agreement between AKIB Ipoteka Bank and SBRK	to open a credit line to finance small business and private enterprise projects in the amount of $30.0 million.Foreign partner - China State Development BankAKIB Ipoteka Bank
In trade, 17 documents worth $3.8 billion, including 12 exports ($3.7 billion) and five imports ($144.1 million).

Source: Compiled by the authors based on an annex to the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan № PP-2982 of 19 May 2017.

Table 6. Some examples of the projects included in the roadmap of cooperation between China and Uzbekistan compiled in 2019.

No	Project area	Goal
Security
1	Promotion of Afghanistan contact group	Developing common regional interests of the in the dialogue with China, on Afghan reconstruction. (Education, trade, energy, transport.)
2	“Financial Dialogue for CA&Afghanistan”	To coordinate projects and attract investments from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, ABII, Silk Road Foundation. World Bank, ADB, EBRD, and IsDB.
3	Second One Belt, One Road“Forum-initiatives.	Identification of the conceptual and logistical problems for larger investments in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China.
4	Junior official meeting on Combating Terrorism	Development and interdepartmental coordination of the Concept of the second meeting of the countries participating in the OPOP on combating international terrorism in Uzbekistan.
Agriculture, Innovation Transportation
5.	Development of smart agriculture.	- Familiarization with the activities of Yanling High Technology Agricultural Zone in Shanxi Province. - Working out the issue of transferring, environmentally friendly technologies and methods of increasing crop yield, plant disease resistance, water conservation. - Signing a partnership agreement with the Yanlin Zone.
6.	Establishment of Agro Innovation Center with the BRI member states	Organize a Center for modern technologies and advanced solutions aimed at achieving food security and agricultural efficiency with BRI members and funding.
7.	International road corridor “Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China.”	- the unification of dimension parameters of trucks with generally accepted international standards; - synchronization of checkpoint operation at the state borders; - creation of logistic and distribution centers along Andijan - Osh - Irkeshtam - Kashgar corridor; - creating favorable conditions for cargo shipments on Lianyungang - Irkeshtam - Osh and on EU. - Negotiations with the Chinese side on the issue of tariff preferences (50%) for rail freight.
8	Uzb-Kyrg-China railroad	Consider the feasibility of a quadrilateral Working Group with the participation of the Russia
9	Facilitation of the “Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar” railroad project.	- Organize a joint study into the context of China’s development of the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor and in connection with the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railroad construction project. - Work toward the signing of an intergovernmental multilateral agreement on cooperation in implementing the project “Financing, design, and construction of the railway line “Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul- Peshawar”(agreement is signed in September 2019 as planned).
10	Establishing a through tariff for railway transportation along the route: Yellow Sea - Central Asia - Europe.	Intensify the participation of the Uzbek side in the CAREC Program in order to develop a mechanism to create favorable conditions for rail transport along the route: “Yellow Sea ports - Central Asia - Europe.”
	13.1 km road tunnel construction at Kamchik Pass with China Railway Tunnel Group (CRTG).	Joint team creation to implement the project (2 tunnels of 6.5 km each) Organizing a visit to Uzbekistan by members of CRTG company. If agreements are reached, prepare and submit an official application and relevant documentation to EXIMBANK PRC to finance the project through a preferential loan.
Tourism, Culture and Human exchanges
11	Creation of “International Silk Road Tourism Association” in Samarkand.	1. Development and interagency coordination of the Concept of the Association with an indication of organizational and substantive issues, including the tourism agencies of the countries participating in BRI
12	Establishing Educational Cooperation of BRI region	Expanding inter-University cooperation and facilitate admission of BRI member states citizens into the Uzbek Universities
13	University Alliance of New Silk Road.	Feasibility study into the accession of Uzbek universities into New Silk Road University Alliance
Trade, investment, and logistics spheres
15	Organization of working group visits to the PRC for quality training and acceleration of priority investment projects. investment projects.	Training visits from: JSC Uzbekneftegaz, JSC Uzkimyosanoat; “Uzpromstroymaterialy,” Uzcharmsanoat; Uztekstilprom, Uzbekkipaksanoat; Ministry of Energy, Goskomgeologiya; Ministry of Health. Agency for the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry; Uzeltekhsanoat, Ministry of Transport; and each regional municipality.
16	Measures to increase trade volume (to USD 10 bln./year).	Organization of regular visits of working groups and delegations of industry companies to China for negotiations on expanding the supply of products to the Chinese market.
17	2nd Import Exhibition	Prepare the Concept and Layout of the National Pavilion in Shanghai. (November 2019)
18	Increasing Uzbek agricultural exports to PRC	Facilitate the implementation of provisions of the Protocol on Phytosanitary Requirements between Uzb and PRC. Secure permissions for enhanced exports of hot pepper and cherries, and melons.
19	Cooperation between Uzgos quarantine and PRC Customs Administration.	Facilitate the visit of the deputy head of the Customs Administration of PRC and sign the Cooperation Program between Uzgosquarantine and the PRC Customs Adm. (permits for exports of pomegranates, grapes, lemons, etc).
20	Application of the “SafeCity” with Huawei and “Citic”	The signing of the confidentiality agreement and the Presidential decree on the implementation of the project on the creation of the integrated system “Safe city” in Tashkent. (FDI of $300 million followed by 1 bln., (2020).
21	Cooperation in information and communication technologies with Huawei. technologies with Huawei.	Implementation of the integrated system “Safe city” in Tashkent (gas and water meters measuring devices, remote locks, electronic seals) and introduction of wireless technologies to connect broadband to the Internet in remote rural areas.
22	Projects in the medical and pharmaceutical fields with Beizhong Yilin PharmTech.	Visit of Beizhong Yilin PharmTech delegation to Uzbekistan.(Creation of a Sino-Uzbek Friendship Hospital, construction of medicinal processing plants (ferula) in Karakalpakstan; Establishment of the Chinese-Uzbek Center for Traditional Chinese Medicine in Tashkent, etc).
Energy
23	Construction of a plant to extract olefins from coal	Establish a Joint Working Group to identify promising hydrocarbon deposits (production of polymer products and rubber on Shargun and Baysun fields) with Sinopec and China Energy Investment ltd.
24	Increasing hydrocarbon production fields of Uzbekistan with Sinopec.	Creation of a joint Working Group on the deposits of hydrocarbon raw materials and discussing the conditions of a potential geological exploration and joint plant with the PRC delegation.
25	Loan agreement	The Silk Road Foundation within the framework of the implementation of the Program for to increase hydrocarbon production (under the guarantee of Uzbek government for USD $600 million)
26	Attracting advanced Chinese technologies for processing graphite	Facilitate sampling of geochemical samples from Taskazgan graphite deposit in Uzbekistan to determine the feasibility of using Chinese technologies for processing graphite into finished products.
27	Construction of three 200 MW wind power plants in Navoi, Samarkand and Bukhara	Visit of Liaoning Lida Investment Corporation to Uzbekistan (estimated FDI USD $720 million and a purchase price of 3.5 cents per kilowatt).

Figure 5. Domestic distribution of projects by various regions in 2022 (USD million).

Table 7. Roadmaps by project areas.

Mineral resources	4077.6
Trade and manufacturing	2250.7
Min. resource development	302
Construction materials production	257.8
Angren industrial zone	157.6
Pharmacy	127
Chemicals production	80
Electric equipment prod.	71.2
Animal husbandry	55
Agriculture	31

Figure 6. Loans and financial support to Uzbek banks by 2022 (USD million).

Table 8. Some examples of the projects included in the roadmap of April 2022.

	The general amount 13 632,6 million USD according to 133 investment projects Implemented: 5 945,6 million USD according to 36 investment projects In the process of implementation: 7 089,8 million USD in 84 investment projects Implemented with delay: 566,0 million USD in 10 investment projects; Not implemented: 31,0 million USD in 3 investment projects
1	“Oztuqimachillik” association related projects for 620 million USD in 3 projects
2	“Uzavtosanoat” association related projects for 7 million USD in 1 projects
3	“COSCOM” related projects for the amount of 65,4 million USD in 2 project areas
4	“Universal Mobile Systems” related projects for USD 150 million in 1 research area
5	Ministry of Energy related for 689,8 million USD in 5 project areas
6	Ministry of Agriculture Resources -related for the amount of USD 30 million in 6 projects
7	Ministry of Public Health related for the amount of USD 300 million in 1 project area
8	Ministry of Transport related for the USD 220 million in 2 project areas
9	Tourism-related proposal for 1 project
10	“Uzbneftegaz” area-related proposals for the amount of USD 4 077.6 million in 2 projects
11	Ministry of Innovative Development related for t USD 2250,7 million in 3 project areas
12	Minister for the Development of Information Technologies and Communications related for the amount USD 312,9 million in 3 project areas
13	State Committee on Geology and Mineral Resources for USD 302 million in 3 project areas
14	“Uzsanoatqurilishmaterilillari” association for USD 257,8 million in 4 projects
15	“Angren” Free Economic Area related projects for USD 157,6 million in 7 project areas
16	Agency for the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry for USD 127 million in 5 project areas
17	“Uzkimyosanoat” Association related USD 80 million in 2 research areas
18	“Uzeltechnosanoat” association in the amount of USD 71,2 million in 4 project areas
19	State Committee for Veterinary and Livestock Development related USD 55million in 2 project areas
20	Horticulture and Greenhouse Development Agency related in the amount of USD 31million in 2 project areas
21	Agency for regulation of the alcohol tabacco market and wine development related for the amount of 4 million in 1 project areas
22	Ministry of Innovation Development in the amount of 5 million in 1 area
23	Cadastral Agency under the State Tax Committee in 1 area
24	State Tax Committee related 1 project
25	“Uzmilliybank” related proposals for the USD 1 580,2 million in 5 project areas
26	“Uzsanoatqurilishbank”related USD 100 million dollars in 1 project areas
27	“Turonbank” related for the amount of USD 166.6 million in 4 project areas
28	Namangan regional administration related in the amount of USD 30 million in 2 projects
29	Samarkand regional administration related in the amount of USD 218 million in 9 projects
30	Syrdaryo regional administration related for USD 14 million in 2 project areas
31	Tashkent regional administration related for USD 1 058 million in 21 project areas
32	Tashkent city administration related for USD 45,6 million in 8 project areas

Source: Annex to the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan № PP-60 of 2022.

Table 9. Anonymized list of respondents to the interview survey conducted in February 2023 in Uzbekistan.

Position of interviewee	Date interviewed
Senior Member of Parliament	February 21, 2023
Junior Member of Parliament	February 14, 2023
Senior SCO official	February 16, 2023
Senior Think Tank Representative	February 14, 2023
Former Deputy Prime Minister	February 21, 2023
Former Member of the Cabinet of Ministers	February 14, 2023
Former Member of the Cabinet of Ministers	February 20, 2023
Senior Think Tank Representative	February 15, 2023
Senior Foreign Ministry Official	February 14, 2023
Senior University Official 1	February 15, 2023
Senior University Official 2	February 17, 2023
Senior University Official 3	February 17, 2023
Senior University Official 4	February 22, 2023

Figure 7. Uzbek youth’s views of the US: 2005–2020.

Source: (Data) AsiaBarometer 2005 and Central Asian Barometer 2017 and 2020 (Spring).

Figure 8. Uzbek youth’s views of Russia: 2005–2020.

Source: (Data) AsiaBarometer 2005 and Central Asian Barometer 2017 and 2020 (Spring).

Figure 9. Uzbek youth’s views of China: 2005–2020.

Source: (Data) AsiaBarometer 2005 and Central Asian Barometer 2017 and 2020 (Spring).

Figure 10. “How much confidence do you have that China’s investment in our country will improve energy and infrastructure in our country? (%).

Source: (Data) Central Asian Barometer 2020 (Autum).

Figure 11. “How concerned, if at all, are you that Chinese development projects could lead to an increase of national debt with China? (%).

Source: (Data) Central Asian Barometer 2020 (Autumn).