Security in context (SiC): a novel theoretical and empirical approach to the US–China rivalry

Abstract

The twenty-first-century global arena is profoundly shaped by the intensifying US–China rivalry. While theories in the US, such as the Thucydides’ Trap and the Clash of Civilizations, forecast a prospective ‘Cold War II,’ many experts in China propound a ‘divided peace,’ advocating for the stable coexistence of dual powerhouses. Introducing a nuanced lens, the ‘Security in Context’ (SiC) approach argues for a more interconnected and multi-dimensional understanding of great power dynamics. This study dives into the practicalities of a SiC approach, examining key strategies including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. As we venture into the era of economic and technological decoupling, epitomized by measures like the Chip Act and Restrict Act, the paper suggests that the SiC framework remains central to deciphering the evolving US–China narrative, even in the face of burgeoning uncertainties.

KEYWORDS:

• Security in context
• US–China competition
• belt and road
• Thucydides Trap
• Indo-Pacific

Acknowledgements

The initial versions of this paper were presented at the Security in Context (SiC) online conference and during sessions held by the Security in Context (SiC) working group on Multipolarity at the University of Oklahoma. The author extends profound thanks to the organizers and participants for their insightful feedback. Particular appreciation is directed to Dr. Omar Dahi and Dr. Firat Demir for their contributions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 In China, Zheng Yongnian and Jin Canrong have popular online forums to circulate such opinions. Stephen Kotkin, China Talk, May 4, 2023. https://www.chinatalk.media/p/kotkin-on-china-cold-war-20-reagan?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

2 Naill Ferguson, interview, Uncommon Knowledge, "Cold War II: Conflict between China and the United States," May 1, 2023. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDLTUMIR4jg

3 Obama interview on TPP in the Wall Street Journal on April 27, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-54797.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Min Ye

Min Ye is a professor of international relations at Boston University's Pardee School of Global Studies. Her specialization includes globalization, industrial policy, and transnational relations, with an emphasis on China and India. She is the author of The Belt, Road and Beyond: State-Mobilized Globalization in China 1998-2018 (2020), Diasporas and Foreign Direct Investment in China and India (2014), and The Making of Northeast Asia (coauthor Kent Calder, 2010).