Southern Thailand’s crossroads: conflict and economic repercussions

Abstract

This study examines the interrelation between prolonged conflict and economic stagnation in Southern Thailand, focusing on the government’s role in mitigating these issues. It explores the deep-rooted historical, cultural, and political complexities that contribute to the region’s unrest and economic underperformance compared to the national average. Emphasizing the post-2004 escalation of violence, this research analyzes the detrimental impact on key economic sectors like tourism and agriculture and the consequences of labor migration and investment trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of the Thai government’s multifaceted peacebuilding and economic recovery initiatives, from infrastructure development to community engagement programs, and security measures. It highlights the challenges of ensuring long-term economic growth, inclusive development, and effective project implementation. Finally, the study underscores the need for strategies that transcend theoretical frameworks, advocating for approaches grounded in on-the-ground intelligence and cultural awareness to foster sustainable peace and economic development in conflict-affected regions.

Keywords:

• Conflict economics
• peacebuilding efficacy
• Thai government strategies
• deep South
• Thailand

Disclosure statement

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Notes

1 Deep South Watch, Casualties and Incidents Report (Pattani Campus: Prince of Songkhla University, 2021).

2 International Crisis Group, “Southern Thailand: Moving towards Political Solutions?” Asia Report No. 181, 2009.

3 Lee Jones, “Socio-economic Development Strategies in Thailand’s Conflict-affected South,” Journal of Southeast Asian Economies 34, no. 2 (2017): 376–96.

4 United Nations Development Programme, “Human Development and the Shift to Better Citizen Security,” Human Development Report, 2014; World Bank, “Thailand Economic Monitor: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability to Drive Inclusive Growth,” World Bank Group, 2017.

5 Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563–95.

6 James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,” American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 75–90.

7 Duncan McCargo, Tearing Apart the Land: Islam and Legitimacy in Southern Thailand (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008).

8 Marc Askew, “Conflict and Counterinsurgency in Southern Thailand,” Policy Studies, 2010.

9 Srisompob Jitpiromsri and Duncan McCargo, “A Ministry for the South: New Governance Proposals for Thailand’s Southern Region,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 30, no. 3 (2008): 403–28.

10 Michael L. Ross, “What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?” Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 337–56.

11 Joseph Chinyong Liow, “Muslim Resistance in Southern Thailand and Southern Philippines: Religion, Ideology, and Politics,” Policy Studies, 2006.

12 Ibid., World Bank Group.

13 Fearon and Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.”

14 Roland Paris, At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).

15 Ibid., Asia Report No. 181.

16 Ibid., “Gross Provincial Product Report.”

17 Tony Addison and S. Mansoob Murshed, “On the Economic Causes of Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers 50, no. 4 (2002): 563–73.

18 Ibid., American Political Science Review 97, no. 1: 75–90.

19 Ibid., World Bank Group.

20 Ibid.

21 Ibid., American Political Science Review 97, no. 1: 75–90.

22 John W. Creswell, Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2014).

23 Svend Brinkmann and Steinar Kvale, Interviews: Learning the Craft of Qualitative Research Interviewing (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2015).

24 Virginia Braun and Victoria Clarke, “Using Thematic Analysis in Psychology,” Qualitative Research in Psychology 3, no. 2 (2006): 77–101.

25 Ibid., World Bank Group.

26 Ibid., Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3: 337–56.

27 Collier and Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.”

28 Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler, and Måns Söderbom, ‘Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy,’ Oxford University Press & World Bank, 2003.

29 Severine Autesserre, The Trouble with the Congo: Local Violence and the Failure of International Peacebuilding (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

30 Lee Jones, “Socio-economic Development Strategies in Thailand’s Conflict-affected South,” Journal of Southeast Asian Economies 34, no. 2 (2017): 376–96.

31 Frances Stewart and Valpy Fitzgerald, eds., War and Underdevelopment: The Economic and Social Consequences of Conflict (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).